Paths to the SECCG and Playoffs

Presumptions abound, of course, but here are the paths to each for each team (all working off of getting an at-large bid):

Texas A&M:
SECCG - Win out OR lose to Texas, Alabama lose to Auburn and Ole Miss lose to MSU
Playoffs - Don't lose to Samford

Alabama:
SECCG - Win out AND at least one of UGA's SEC non-common opponents loses OR Ole Miss lose to MSU (forcing the tie-breaker to head-to-head)
Playoffs - Win out

Ole Miss:
SECCG - Win out, Alabama loses to Auburn, Texas A&M loses to Texas
Playoffs - Win out; can probably get in with a loss to MSU

Georgia:
SECCG - Texas A&M loses **OR** Alabama loses to Auburn OR every non-common SEC opponent with Alabama wins (along with Ole Miss beating MSU)
Playoffs - Lock if wins out; very high probability of still getting in with loss to Georgia Tech

Mathematically eliminated from SECCG:
Oklahoma:
Playoffs - Win out

Vanderbilt:
Playoffs - Win out, may need a team ahead of them to lose


Overall:
A&M needs no outside help; win out and they're in.
Losing to Texas likely costs them a shot at the conference title game, but only a complete collapse of losing to both Samford and Texas is likely to knock them out. The win over Notre Dame is huge for keeping them in the conversation, despite a weak conference slate.

Alabama should be in if they win out. They are also the most likely team to be A&M SECCG opponent if both teams win out, as it would take a lot of games to go a very specific way for UGA to pass Alabama for opponent winning %.

Georgia's SEC schedule is done. If they win out they're in the playoffs, and a pretty high likelihood of getting in even with a loss to Tech. For a trip to the SECCG, they need Alabama to lose to Auburn OR for every non-common SEC foe to win.

Ole Miss is also in the playoffs if they win out. A loss to Mississippi State, with a weaker than some schedule, might knock them out of the playoffs. A trip to the SECCG requires both A&M and Alabama to lose (as Ole Miss' conference schedule is weaker than UGA's and Alabama's but stronger than A&M's)

Oklahoma should be in the playoffs if they win out. That would put them with 2 losses (both to ranked opponents, one of which is playoff bound) but also with wins over Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan.

Vanderbilt will have the hardest time of every team at a 2-loss mark to get in, with Missouri as the only win over a team currently ranked.


ESPN's playoff predictor % chance, by team:
Texas A&M - greater than 99%
Georgia - 99%

Ole Miss - 89%
Alabama - 84%

Oklahoma - 49%

Texas - 20% (I don't see it, but okay)

Vandy - 10%