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UGA as a CFP 4-seed
Posted on 11/4/25 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 12:42 pm
Assuming Ohio St, Indiana, Bama, A&M, and UGA all win out—with the exception of H2H losses to each other in conference title games—seems like there’s a good chance UGA could skip the SECCG and get a 1st round bye.
I think all that’d need to happen in the above scenario is for A&M to lose to Bama in the SECCG. Given how close UGA’s loss to Bama was, an easy argument could be made to put them ahead of A&M into the 4-seed.
That would be some tasty home cooking for sure.
I think all that’d need to happen in the above scenario is for A&M to lose to Bama in the SECCG. Given how close UGA’s loss to Bama was, an easy argument could be made to put them ahead of A&M into the 4-seed.
That would be some tasty home cooking for sure.
This post was edited on 11/4/25 at 12:43 pm
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Posted on 11/4/25 at 12:45 pm to Demosthenian
Not an easy argument because they’ll give favor to the team that played an extra game. Would depend on the score
Posted on 11/4/25 at 12:53 pm to Drewyoung
quote:
Not an easy argument because they’ll give favor to the team that played an extra game. Would depend on the score
Agreed, if they start allowing a team within the conference who didn't make it to the conference championship game to benefit because a team lossed in the conference title game, then they will reduce the value of the conference championship games even more than they already have. The teams in the conference title game shouldn't be punished just because they lost. If that's the case might as well just do away with conference titles.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 12:54 pm to Demosthenian
Highly doubt they would drop any of those 4 teams behind GA for losing that extra game.
This post was edited on 11/4/25 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:03 pm to Gator Fever
Look there’s not much of a historical sample set, but what’s a notable wrinkle here is that both teams would be undefeated but for a common opponent, Bama, who also serves as a pretty good yard stick for relative talent, execution, coaching performance, etc.
As far as “easy” goes I mean to say it’s analysis on a single metric (H2H loss margin to a single team) that, as a function of the common opponent being Bama, controls for many other variables.
You could definitely complicate the analysis by invoking the extra game / SECCG aspect, looking at other H2H results, yada yada. But it doesn’t strike me as far-fetched to just look at the outcome of each v. Bama and infer A&M has a very small margin for error to maintain their 4-seed position.
As far as “easy” goes I mean to say it’s analysis on a single metric (H2H loss margin to a single team) that, as a function of the common opponent being Bama, controls for many other variables.
You could definitely complicate the analysis by invoking the extra game / SECCG aspect, looking at other H2H results, yada yada. But it doesn’t strike me as far-fetched to just look at the outcome of each v. Bama and infer A&M has a very small margin for error to maintain their 4-seed position.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:05 pm to Demosthenian
The committee showed last year they are not going to punish a team for making their conference title game and then losing. Definitely the right thing to do.
A team that sits out should never get rewarded over a team that makes it and then loses.
A conference championship win should help you, but a loss shouldn't hurt you. Making it should be strictly better than not making it.
A team that sits out should never get rewarded over a team that makes it and then loses.
A conference championship win should help you, but a loss shouldn't hurt you. Making it should be strictly better than not making it.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:13 pm to StansberryRules
quote:What if the committee needed a clever way to engineer a revolt against a 12-team format to move to 16+ teams?
The committee…should…should…shouldn't…should...
Pre-wiring this structure with just such a “bug” feels exactly like the 4-D chess you’d expect the powers that be to be playing
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:18 pm to Demosthenian
UGa lost at home. A&M at a neutral site in this scenario. UGA would be 5th
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:29 pm to Demosthenian
No. Everyone wins out and the losers of the CCG’s are the 3 and 4 seeds. Unless there’s a blowout
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:30 pm to Demosthenian
I would be okay with playing a first round game at home.
There's no guarantee we're making the playoffs at all. I don't think we should be talking about a first round bye.
There's no guarantee we're making the playoffs at all. I don't think we should be talking about a first round bye.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:30 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
Assuming Ohio St, Indiana, Bama, A&M, and UGA all win out—with the exception of H2H losses to each other in conference title games—seems like there’s a good chance UGA could skip the SECCG and get a 1st round bye.
No there isn't. That would put A&M and Bama in the championship game. The committee made it very clear last year that a team won't be punished for losing a conference championship. That would keep both Bama and A&M in the top 4, thus they would both get first round byes.
I'm not sure you really want a bye. Last year every team that got a bye lost their first playoff game.
This post was edited on 11/4/25 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:33 pm to DawgTired
quote:This. We'd be fortunate not to drop a game before the season is out. Outside of Charlotte, anyone left on our schedule could beat us based on the way this season has played out.
There's no guarantee we're making the playoffs at all. I don't think we should be talking about a first round bye.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 1:35 pm to Demosthenian
Not seeing it. They wouldn't put them over A&M given thier loss would be in the championship (and to the same team). Can't see them jumping a 2 loss Bama if that loss comes in the SECCG to an undefeated given the head to head result in Athens. They won't jump them over either of the B10 schools if they are both undefeated in conference play.
The whole concept of a Bye is silly here. You get the same time off. If you aren't in the championship game you are off that week. One could argue last year we'd have been better off not playing a very physical Texas and instead opening at home against an SMU or something. They need to address the Conference Championship problem going forward. As it sits you have little to gain playing in it especially since the BYE is just based on ranking now.
The whole concept of a Bye is silly here. You get the same time off. If you aren't in the championship game you are off that week. One could argue last year we'd have been better off not playing a very physical Texas and instead opening at home against an SMU or something. They need to address the Conference Championship problem going forward. As it sits you have little to gain playing in it especially since the BYE is just based on ranking now.
This post was edited on 11/4/25 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 2:21 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
But it doesn’t strike me as far-fetched to just look at the outcome of each v. Bama and infer A&M has a very small margin for error to maintain their 4-seed position.
They should definitely look at common opponents. So far, Georgia has needed Snakey to pay off the refs to get wins vs Auburn and Florida. A&M dominated those games from start to finish. A&M dominated State. We’ll see how Georgia does Saturday. Both schools play the whorns. A&M wins out both will have played Bama as well
We’ll see, but so far A&M is clearly the better team
Posted on 11/4/25 at 2:23 pm to Raoul_Duke
quote:
Georgia has needed Snakey to pay off the refs to get wins vs Auburn and Florida
Because Bowl cut comes from the same coaching cloth as Saban. So they will always favor the Subaru driving lesbian.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 2:27 pm to TexasOnTop
quote:
Last year every team that got a bye said "bye" in their first playoff game.
Fixed
Posted on 11/4/25 at 2:43 pm to TexasOnTop
quote:
I'm not sure you really want a bye. Last year every team that got a bye lost their first playoff game.
I’ve had similar thoughts.
Obviously Boise and ASU didn’t belong in the playoffs at all much less getting a bye. They don’t really count. Now that that’s over it will be 4 good teams getting the bye
Oregon lost in the re-match game to OSU. It’s hard to go undefeated and even harder to beat a top team twice. This makes me think it would almost be better to lose to Bama in the SECCG than to win. Unless we’re likely to be on opposite sides of the bracket
Georgia was beat up by the end. It’s a long grueling schedule. But it makes more sense for an SEC team to want the bye to be able to heal up.
We’ll see how it goes
Posted on 11/4/25 at 3:14 pm to Dawgs2122
quote:I'm not sure I agree with that statement.
You get the same time off.
Scenario 1: A championship game loser of a lesser conference, say previously-undefeated BYU in teh Big12 CCG, would not have any bye if they made the field as an at-large (which would be very likely). This happened with SMU last year
Scenario 2: The case at hand: in a unique circumstance a non-CCG team getting into the 4-seed, which in that case the team would get 2 weeks off.
p.s. By the way, your point about a 2-loss Bama team is well-taken; I suppose its a fair question depending on how they lost (Ty Simpson gets injured and they lose by 3 TDs, say) UGA may very well have an argument to leapfrog Bama, despite the prior H2H loss
This post was edited on 11/4/25 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 3:18 pm to DawgTired
quote:
I would be okay with playing a first round game at home. There's no guarantee we're making the playoffs at all. I don't think we should be talking about a first round bye.
I agree.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 3:19 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
Look there’s not much of a historical sample set, but what’s a notable wrinkle here is that both teams would be undefeated but for a common opponent, Bama, who also serves as a pretty good yard stick for relative talent, execution, coaching performance, etc.
All I need is to see that in 2024 Penn State stayed ahead of Ohio State when both teams had 2 losses. Penn State lost AT HOME to Ohio State and stayed ahead of them.
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