Stats on the Kind of Guy Who Makes a Good Coaching Hire

I found every coach who had won a P5 conference title since 2004. The Power 5 included SEC, B10, B12, Pac-12, ACC and Big East (before it dissolved). My dataset includes 52 coaches. I deleted Paterno and Bowden because FSU and PSU were both independent for a long time and it skews the numbers. So I was left with 50 coaches in total.

Age stats:

Average age when the coach was hired at his championship P5 job: 44
Age range: 33 (Dilly and Riley) up to 54/55 with Orgeron and Saban
Average age when the guy actually won his first title: 48

Time to win:

Average time it takes to win a title at the school: 3.3 seasons
Median time to win: 3 seasons
Range: 1st season up to 15th season (Bill Snyder).

Previous experience:

This only counts the job directly before the job in question here.

7 coaches (14%) were head coaches hired from other P5 programs.
9 coaches (18%) were G5 head coaches
3 coaches (6%) were FCS head coaches
3 coaches (6%) were NFL head coaches (Saban, Petrino, Harbaugh)
28 coaches (55%) were P5 coordinators or position coaches.

If you combine some of these:

7 coaches (14%) were previous P5 head coaches.
12 coaches (24%) were head coaches at a lower level of college ball
2 of the 3 previous NFL head coaches won national titles. (Petrino probably would have if he ever had a chance at a blue blood).

55% of hires were not head coaches
44% of hires were head coaches at some level (from FCS to NFL).

Takeaways:

1) Freeze was 53/54 when he was hired at AU. That makes him almost equal age to the oldest coaches in my dataset (Orgeron and Saban) when they were hired. Saban, however, had won a title at LSU and was already an NFL head coach.

2) If a coach doesn't win by his 3rd season, he probably never will. That is unless you are K-State and want to hold onto a coach forever just because.

Bottom line:

Unless you can nail a homerun championship coach (with titles already under his belt), you should aim for a coach in his early to mid 40's. Whether he is a coordinator or a G5 head coach doesn't matter all that much. Just check the stats for the best coordinators and check G5 records for best head coaches down there. Jon Sumrall is one G5 coach who fits this bill. For coordinators there are 3 or 4 who could be candidates (like Kirby Moore at Mizzou or the guy from Oregon). DJ Durkin deserves a look.

James Franklin has one conference title at Penn St as well as one playoff appearance. However, he could not beat OSU or Michigan like ever. He was 2-20 combined against them! That would be like our Bama and UGA. I am going to have to say "no thanks" as he does not fit my definition of "proven championship coach."

When I think of "proven" I think of Urban Meyer (who probably doesn't want to coach anymore) or someone like that.