TigerHornII
| Favorite team: | Auburn  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 847 |
| Registered on: | 2/1/2021 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Are goods shortages really coming in the next 2-4 weeks due to Tariffs/halted shipments?
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 1:09 pm
quote:
The power grid and electrical systems in the cannery and the store and along the route are ALL heavily dependent on imported spare parts to continue functioning. Pretending otherwise is an insult to Donald Trump who has warned us that it is not going to be painless.....pretending otherwise is to suggest he does not know what he is talking about....
China exports very little production machinery, and those who bought it for the most part are sorry they did. Some controls components are made in China, but really very few. You're overstating the dependence. SCADA controls and the like have lifetimes measured in decades, and more are made in Europe and Taiwan than in China.
There will be some pain, but don't overstate it.
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re: Are goods shortages really coming in the next 2-4 weeks due to Tariffs/halted shipments?
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 1:01 pm
quote:
After looking at the GDP garbage that came out today...the warehouses should be full for 2+ months of hysterical mouth-breathers buying TP. Basically the only reason we had negative GDP was the historically high net imports of goods.
This post should have been /thread.
In case you don't believe Midtown, here's the actual data from the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis:
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 12:22 pm
quote:
I’m a professional economist. Y’all don’t understand the variable you are talking about. This is the Dunning Kruger Effect in action. You don’t know enough about GDP to know what you don’t know.
See my other reply immediately prior to this one.
The article quotes BEA numbers, which you are surely familiar with if you are what you say you are. I provided the actual graph for you showing how the GDP calculation was made, directly from the BEA's website.
If you can address the graphs provided directly, then someone might start to believe you. Right now, you're avoiding the question, which makes you look more like an attorney than an economist, and no one wants that label.
:ahh:
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:26 am
quote:
Net Exports effects GDP.
Net exports = Exports - Imports.
Imports do indeed effect GDP from what Dr. Google is telling me
To your point, here is a link to the government's tracking of imports. Note the spike starting in Dec '24 followed by a rapid drop. That drop will continue, regardless of whether tariffs take hold or not, as companies sell down inventories.
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:17 am
quote:
quote:
Massive imports to build inventory count as a negative to GDP.
No they don’t
Part of investment is inventory accumulation. The negative hit from imports cancels out with the positive influence on inventory accumulation, making the net impact of all imports 0.
GDP is gross domestic product. As in the total market value of goods and services produced within a country.
If GDP fell, it’s because we produced less. Not because we imported more.
You didn't look at the graphs of how the numbers were computed, did you? Nor do you understand that the numbers are dynamic.
Link to the breakdown from the US Government's Bureau of Economic Analysis
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:15 am
quote:
What's really crazy is that today's numbers indicate that our total trade deficit has actually WORSENED since Trump took office.
That would be because companies tried to build inventories ahead of tariffs. Like everything else in the economy, it is dynamic, not static.
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:09 am
quote:
quote:
Actually it's the inverse of the way you read it. Massive imports to build inventory count as a negative to GDP. That part at least will be truly transitory, as opposed to the "transitory inflation" that hasn't gone away at all, even if it has finally leveled off.
I think you're agreeing with me?
Hah! Yes, the tilde you had before 5% looked like a negative to my old eyes!
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:07 am
Meanwhile, in China:
China eases tariffs on select US goods as Trump says Beijing will 'eat' the costs
4/30: Companies, particularly those reliant on US technologies such as pharmaceuticals and chipmakers are being discreetly informed about these exemptions, Reuters reported.
The list appears to be expanding: For instance, China recently waived tariffs on US ethane imports. This approach allows Beijing to maintain a firm public stance while offering behind-the-scenes relief. Reports emerged last week that China quietly rolled back tariffs on some US semiconductor products, easing pressure on its tech sector, along with certain US pharmaceuticals.
Yahoo Finance Link
What this means is that the "signaling" portion of negotiations to end the "trade war" (more like a serious trade skirmish) have already begun.
Nevertheless, history teaches us that recessions usually begin a few quarters after interest rates are reduced, and the timing is about right with the rate cuts last year.
China eases tariffs on select US goods as Trump says Beijing will 'eat' the costs
4/30: Companies, particularly those reliant on US technologies such as pharmaceuticals and chipmakers are being discreetly informed about these exemptions, Reuters reported.
The list appears to be expanding: For instance, China recently waived tariffs on US ethane imports. This approach allows Beijing to maintain a firm public stance while offering behind-the-scenes relief. Reports emerged last week that China quietly rolled back tariffs on some US semiconductor products, easing pressure on its tech sector, along with certain US pharmaceuticals.
Yahoo Finance Link
What this means is that the "signaling" portion of negotiations to end the "trade war" (more like a serious trade skirmish) have already begun.
Nevertheless, history teaches us that recessions usually begin a few quarters after interest rates are reduced, and the timing is about right with the rate cuts last year.
re: U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 10:02 am
quote:
Am I reading that we would have had ~5% growth if weren't for massive imports due to stocking up for trade war?
Actually it's the inverse of the way you read it. Massive imports to build inventory count as a negative to GDP. That part at least will be truly transitory, as opposed to the "transitory inflation" that hasn't gone away at all, even if it has finally leveled off.
re: Soviet Venus probe launched in 1972 could smash into the Earth on May 10
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/30/25 at 8:40 am
quote:
I worry more than i probably should about space junk. To me it’s like thousands of bullets have been shot into the air and must come down eventually. Do “they” not think about that when launching this bullshite?
The planet is big, space is even bigger. Your odds of winning the Powerball are better than getting hit by space junk, probably by a couple of orders of magnitude. It is also very rare for anything launched not to burn up completely on re-entry. This probe is the exception because it was built "Soviet Stronk, like Bear" to survive re-entry into Venus's much denser and more hostile atmosphere.
As for your last questions, the Soviets never thought about anything other than the glory of international socialism. Did you watch Chernobyl on HBO?
re: Operation Curveball: Arrests for Massage Parlor Prostitution
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/29/25 at 2:14 pm
Two pages and no one has mentioned the humorously appropriate "Love Shreveport Bossier" logo? The OTL really is hard up if all the focus is on the caliber of these chicks.
re: Car and Driver: 2025 4Runner TrailHunter Test
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/29/25 at 10:27 am
quote:
member12
Good summary by a poster who follows the industry closely. :cheers: The only quibble I would have is that Nissan's real fall began when they got all jingoistic with Ghosn and tried to put him in jail. Nissan/Renault was working better than anyone would have predicted prior to that.
It's typical of the industry though that companies do their best when there is a Force of Nature in the c-suite, from Henry Ford and Alfred Sloan to Marchionne, Mullaley, and Ghosn.
re: Marines perform boarding exercises with Jetpacks
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/28/25 at 8:05 am
quote:
Probably make a good recruiting video, but wouldn’t be very practical at all. Just like shooting skeet for the guys on the ship.
A version with a shoulder-mounted, eye-directed automatic pistol for suppression fire was demo'd years ago in a shore landing scenario. You can probably find a vid of it somewhere.
re: New Details Emerge on Trump Officials’ Sprint to Gut Consumer Bureau Staff
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/28/25 at 7:58 am
quote:
Then gut Dodd-Frank
Perhaps the greatest example of the fox not only watching, but being put in total control of the henhouse in American political history. Frank in particular should have done jail time in a just world. All that paperwork nightmare did was make accounting consultancies rich and hamstring American companies in international competition.
F the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Metric ton of extra paper that does nothing meaningful but check a box.
re: California is now the 4th largest economy in the world
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/25/25 at 3:01 pm
quote:
Use your logic to explain Singapore and Hong Kong to me.
The coasts are not just bank accounts. They are a lot more. They are technology, services etc.
What does the rest of the country make other than agriculture.
You are thinking like we are in 1950s.
You are thinking like you're clueless. In your own post, you list "services". Those are highly portable and no one would use services from this fictional Bluestainistan. You need to get out of your coastal bubble and see the rest of the country. Without its energy production, manufacturing, and yes, agriculture, Bluestainistan would quickly be relegated to third world status, with a handful of elites and myriad poor.
re: Most NFL draft picks in sec
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/25/25 at 10:07 am
Has any team below Auburn won a SECC since OM in 1970-something? None of them have sniffed a NC.
So, 300 picks all-time is the threshold. Aggie needs to do something with its talent.......
So, 300 picks all-time is the threshold. Aggie needs to do something with its talent.......
re: Aggies are going to be the first campus to reach 100k students
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/25/25 at 9:56 am
quote:
Degree factory.
< AU Grad
< 2x Texas Ex
Your take is 'tarded.
Aggie is top 5 in the SEC for academics. Maybe even top 2-3.
re: California is now the 4th largest economy in the world
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/25/25 at 9:06 am
quote:
f California, Oregon and Washington left the Union and formed a separate country they would have a per capita gdp greater than any major nation.
In the same time if the American North East left with New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland Delaware, Virginia, New Hamshire, Maine and Vermont, that nation would also have a per capita gdp greater than any major nation.
Combine that with a free trade agreement between these two nations, Canada and a free passage for citizens through Canada and you have a modern day economic powerhouse zone with one of the highest per capita GDP. Extend this with FTA with Australia, NZ and the UK and you have an economy far more robust than both the US, EU or China.
This is a comical fantasy based on a complete absence of comprehension of what those numbers mean and where they come from. What precisely will they trade with their free trade agreement? Legal services and bank accounts? Illegal aliens? Do you think the rest of the country they left would keep their bank accounts there?
As another poster noted, that GDP doesn't hold up very well when you look at actual value created. Selling existing over-valued real estate is not value creation.
re: California is now the 4th largest economy in the world
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/24/25 at 2:22 pm
quote:
In 2021, Montana led the states with the highest proportion of federal funding to the overall budget at 31.8%, followed by New Mexico (30.7%), Kentucky (30.1%), Louisiana (29.8%), and Alaska (29.0%).
Vermont relied on federal grants the least, with just 12.8% of its total budget coming from the federal government – a total reversal from 2020, when it topped the list with 35.7% of revenues coming from the feds thanks to four federal acts passed that year. In 2020 and 2021, Vermont received over $4.9 billion in federal grants.
Despite receiving the most federal funding dollar-wise, California was the second-least reliant state on a percentage basis, with 14.5% of revenue coming from the federal government, followed by Minnesota (14.6%), South Dakota (15.0%), and Iowa (15.5%).
Louisiana may or may not be a welfare state, but these rankings are skewed just like GDP is without looking at the big picture. States with a lot of military, NASA or other Fed facilities "receive" federal funding in the form of the budgets for those agencies, and it gets counted here in these "rankings". The impression you're supposed to get is that this is all some kind of federal welfare giveaway, but it's not for many of the states on the list.
re: California is now the 4th largest economy in the world
Posted by TigerHornII on 4/24/25 at 1:02 pm
Bear in mind that most of these GDP measures include imports/exports. CA is home to two of the three busiest ports by TEU's in the US. NY/NJ is the other.
In other words, their GDP gets artificially pumped up by goods either coming from or going to other states. A very large portion of the trade with China transits CA's ports.
In other words, their GDP gets artificially pumped up by goods either coming from or going to other states. A very large portion of the trade with China transits CA's ports.
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