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Biggest surprises so far (Ole Miss, Tenn, OU, TAMU) and just how big SEC home field adv is
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:07 pm
I have reservations right now because none of these teams have played a top half SEC team on the road yet, and this might be a controversial statement, in my opinion home field advantage can be a 15 point swing at the SEC level or top P4 level. OU beat Auburn by 7 and Mich by 10. I think Auburn wins a game vs OU at home by 3+. I think if OU went at Michigan at night on Saturday, that Michigan wins that game. For example, FSU lost by 8 at UVA. I think they win by 8 at home. Tenn and UGA went to OT, I think UGA wins by 10 at home vs Tenn. TAMU beat Auburn by 6 at home, I don't know if TAMU wins that on the road at Auburn.
Plenty examples, and yes you can find examples that go against that, but for the majority of top tier SEC games, it's as high as a 10-14 point swing to me. Another example is Florida Texas. If played at Texas, I have no doubt Texas would win it. Since it's at Florida, I give it a 50/50 shot. An easy 10+ pt swing is how I at least see it.
Fans of these undefeated teams think "No, we're just a super good team that's 5-0 or 4-0. It has nothing to do with not having played any top half SEC team on the road yet. Ask LSU and Bama how that logic goes who recruit at a higher level than Tenn, OU, Ole Miss, and maybe TAMU. Bama was at FSU, but you can place FSU as a 7th or so ranked SEC team right now.
We forget these are 18 to 22/23 year olds. They are easily pressured and 21 year old QBs often don't know how to handle 100,000 yelling fans. I couldn't handle my alcohol at 21, much less 100,000 adult fans yelling at me.
What these teams show is just how important home field advantage is. Ole Miss, Tenn, Tamu, OU haven't played a single Top 10 SEC team on the road yet. Night and day difference. That being said, I thought they'd be worse than they are now. I think Ole Miss loses 2 of their next 3. And TAMU loses 3 of their 4 SEC road games which are all end of year, which is what we've come to expect with the Aggies. Hats off for the great road Notre Dame win though.
Tenn and Ole Miss somehow play a 2024 Texas level cupcake schedule this year. Ole Miss has just 3 ranked opponents (that's really bad), and Tenn just 4 ranked opponents, when most SEC teams have 6 or more. Tenn really only has 1 tough road game on their schedule at Bama, I highly doubt ESPN analysts or the CFP committee will weight this as serious as it needs to be weighed as they aren't capable of that deep of thought or analysis. That is massively collosal to only play 1 ranked team on the road in a season in the SEC. LSU has 4 AP Top 15 SEC road games. Night and day difference.
OU, same thing but has a much more respectable schedule. Start out hot with all home games, then hit the SEC on the road, and it's when fans get cranky (see TD and LSU this week). It shows just how important SEC home field advantage on a Saturday night is. I don't think OU beats Auburn or Michigan on the road and would sit 2-2 if those were road games at night.
Plenty examples, and yes you can find examples that go against that, but for the majority of top tier SEC games, it's as high as a 10-14 point swing to me. Another example is Florida Texas. If played at Texas, I have no doubt Texas would win it. Since it's at Florida, I give it a 50/50 shot. An easy 10+ pt swing is how I at least see it.
Fans of these undefeated teams think "No, we're just a super good team that's 5-0 or 4-0. It has nothing to do with not having played any top half SEC team on the road yet. Ask LSU and Bama how that logic goes who recruit at a higher level than Tenn, OU, Ole Miss, and maybe TAMU. Bama was at FSU, but you can place FSU as a 7th or so ranked SEC team right now.
We forget these are 18 to 22/23 year olds. They are easily pressured and 21 year old QBs often don't know how to handle 100,000 yelling fans. I couldn't handle my alcohol at 21, much less 100,000 adult fans yelling at me.
What these teams show is just how important home field advantage is. Ole Miss, Tenn, Tamu, OU haven't played a single Top 10 SEC team on the road yet. Night and day difference. That being said, I thought they'd be worse than they are now. I think Ole Miss loses 2 of their next 3. And TAMU loses 3 of their 4 SEC road games which are all end of year, which is what we've come to expect with the Aggies. Hats off for the great road Notre Dame win though.
Tenn and Ole Miss somehow play a 2024 Texas level cupcake schedule this year. Ole Miss has just 3 ranked opponents (that's really bad), and Tenn just 4 ranked opponents, when most SEC teams have 6 or more. Tenn really only has 1 tough road game on their schedule at Bama, I highly doubt ESPN analysts or the CFP committee will weight this as serious as it needs to be weighed as they aren't capable of that deep of thought or analysis. That is massively collosal to only play 1 ranked team on the road in a season in the SEC. LSU has 4 AP Top 15 SEC road games. Night and day difference.
OU, same thing but has a much more respectable schedule. Start out hot with all home games, then hit the SEC on the road, and it's when fans get cranky (see TD and LSU this week). It shows just how important SEC home field advantage on a Saturday night is. I don't think OU beats Auburn or Michigan on the road and would sit 2-2 if those were road games at night.
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:09 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
Too early for surprises.. most 1 sec game played
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:20 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
I don't think any analytics out there would support your hypothesis of the home team having a +14 edge. Most analytical models will give 2-3 points for home field advantage at the most.
Ole Miss shouldn't be that big of a surprise. So far they've been favored in every game and they've won accordingly. Maybe being favored and beating LSU was a surprise but I think most people had Ole Miss at 4-1 at this juncture, with maybe some giving Arky the edge and having them at 3-2.
Ole Miss shouldn't be that big of a surprise. So far they've been favored in every game and they've won accordingly. Maybe being favored and beating LSU was a surprise but I think most people had Ole Miss at 4-1 at this juncture, with maybe some giving Arky the edge and having them at 3-2.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:25 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
If A&M played that game against Auburn 10x, 9 of those ten they win by 20+. The scoreboard doesn’t show how one sided that game was.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:33 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
quote:
That is massively collosal to only play 1 ranked team on the road in a season in the SEC. LSU has 4 AP Top 15 SEC road games
Tenn played Bama, Georgia and us every year for the last twenty years. They are the only team to have done that. All the while LSU was in cupcake land.
Don't begrudge them their one year out of twenty when they don't have murderer's row.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:34 pm to Drewyoung
A much worse Oklahoma team beat Auburn on the road last year so not sure that holds water. OU has some road losses coming I'm pretty sure. How many is the question.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:44 pm to Wishbone85
That he thinks home games in the SEC give a 10+ point swing is ludicrous in and of itself, and an amateur opinion.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:52 pm to John somers
quote:
Tenn played Bama, Georgia and us every year for the last twenty years. They are the only team to have done that. All the while LSU was in cupcake land.
/
Melt some more OP
Posted on 10/3/25 at 1:56 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
Beating Notre Dame on the road is a plenty adequate test. Probably second best win in SEC so far behind Bama beating Georgia.
When a team has all 5 OL starters back plus an OT who started several years, how can it possibly be a "surprise" they are pretty good?
When a team has all 5 OL starters back plus an OT who started several years, how can it possibly be a "surprise" they are pretty good?
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 2:22 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
Nobody has really "done anything" yet...it's too early. I've enjoyed giving shite to LSU fans, but it still don't mean all that much. It's a long season. HOWEVA, I would still rather be 5-0 than 4-1. You have an obvious bias towards Ole Miss (like most SEC fans) and I like that. That means we're good. All the cute little teams that tRant loves all suck. Funny, isn't it?
Posted on 10/3/25 at 2:39 pm to themetalreb
quote:
Nobody has really "done anything" yet...
Beating UGA at Sanford for the first time since 2019 is absolutely “something”.
Doesn’t mean Bama will win the SEC, but that was a major win. Teams don’t win there under Kirby.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 2:40 pm to John somers
quote:
All the while LSU was in cupcake land.
Yeah, since 2002 LSU is 16-8 including this year against their cupcake permanent East rival.
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 2:42 pm to Drewyoung
quote:
If A&M played that game against Auburn 10x, 9 of those ten they win by 20+. The scoreboard doesn’t show how one sided that game was.
So why didn't they win by 20+ in the real game that was actually played? You know? A real game that actually happened in real life and not some fictional 20+ point win you fantasized in your head.
What kept them from blowing out Auburn in a real life game? Didn't Auburn have 0 yards or something in the 4th quarter? And you only won by one score still?
aTm isn't very good either. Hate to break it to you. Auburn is garbage and you struggled at home with them.
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 3:37 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
quote:
Biggest surprises so far (Ole Miss, Tenn, OU, TAMU) and just how big SEC home field adv is
I dunno... we seemed unperturbed by playing in Athens.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 3:41 pm to i am dan
Oh, I don't know dan....maybe it was all those times the Ags shot themselves in the dick during the game.
13 penalties certainly didn't help.
Dumbass.
13 penalties certainly didn't help.
Dumbass.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 3:42 pm to i am dan
That’s easy. Refs called back three touchdowns. One of which indirectly led to yall getting your only td of the game.
We still coasted and won
We still coasted and won
Posted on 10/3/25 at 4:19 pm to i am dan
Aside from the points other people have made, Ags just played a vanilla offense that game. Why waste designed plays and risk our skill players being injured on an Auburn team that doesn’t even have a shot at moving the ball down the field?
Posted on 10/3/25 at 4:29 pm to Drewyoung
If is the most used word by Aggys
Posted on 10/3/25 at 4:49 pm to QuantraviousJefferso
Not sure Auburns's home field is going to make up a 414 to 177 yd deficit vs A&M, or an 0 for 14 3rd down performance.
It was fluke and penalties (and a couple stupid play calls by Collin Klein) that kept that game close.
But I AM curious to see how A&M looks on the SEC road. I don't think any game though will be as challenging as playing @ night vs Notre Dame and spotting them a 7 point lead in the first three minutes (blocked punt error).
that was a GREAT road win. and a 74 yard 13 play drive in last two minutes after having a kickoff return TD. called back- well that showed what this team was made of more than most things we've seen from other SEC teams.
We'll see what happens.
It was fluke and penalties (and a couple stupid play calls by Collin Klein) that kept that game close.
But I AM curious to see how A&M looks on the SEC road. I don't think any game though will be as challenging as playing @ night vs Notre Dame and spotting them a 7 point lead in the first three minutes (blocked punt error).
that was a GREAT road win. and a 74 yard 13 play drive in last two minutes after having a kickoff return TD. called back- well that showed what this team was made of more than most things we've seen from other SEC teams.
We'll see what happens.
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 4:57 pm
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