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Texas A&M vs Mississippi State - StatSim
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:12 am
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:12 am
Looks like a 2 TD favorite for A&M which is in line with Vegas oddsmakers' projections...
(Any other big games you want to see side-by-side for this upcoming weekend?)
(Any other big games you want to see side-by-side for this upcoming weekend?)
This post was edited on 9/30/25 at 3:55 pm
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Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:13 am to SpreadsheetAg
Dude's name is Fluff Bothwell?!
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:16 am to SpreadsheetAg
You have Bama - Vandy?
I just think they’re an absolute matchup nightmare for Bama given the injuries up front and don’t understand the line or the O/U unless they see Vandy gashing Bama for explosive plays and Bama smoking Vandy through the air.
I just think they’re an absolute matchup nightmare for Bama given the injuries up front and don’t understand the line or the O/U unless they see Vandy gashing Bama for explosive plays and Bama smoking Vandy through the air.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:18 am to SpreadsheetAg
This thing was WAY off for the Auburn game.
Just too many arbitrary/emotional factors in the college game for me to take these too seriously.
Are there any studies that explore how accurate these are vs NFL games?
Just too many arbitrary/emotional factors in the college game for me to take these too seriously.
Are there any studies that explore how accurate these are vs NFL games?
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:26 am to SpreadsheetAg
Am I understanding correctly that MSU is more penalized than A&M?
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:31 am to Rodo
Yarp....
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:38 am to Ag Zwin
I don't think anyone predicted that only 26 points would be scored in the Auburn/A&M Game, it was literally half the Over. shite happens.
These spreadsheets are interesting though because it looks at stats objectively and generally has been a good indicator. Stats don't play games though.
These spreadsheets are interesting though because it looks at stats objectively and generally has been a good indicator. Stats don't play games though.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:40 am to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Dude's name is Fluff Bothwell?!
He's very good too. Probably their best player on offense.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:41 am to Quicksilver
Torched Tennessee
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:42 am to Hailstate2014
I think he's run better than Booth in every game.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:47 am to tide06
quote:curious about this one too. The O/U at 57 pts is a lot for a game that could turn into a dogfight and Vandy I suspect will try to slow the game down and hold onto TOS
You have Bama - Vandy?
I just think they’re an absolute matchup nightmare for Bama given the injuries up front and don’t understand the line or the O/U unless they see Vandy gashing Bama for explosive plays and Bama smoking Vandy through the air.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:49 am to Quicksilver
He has, but the problem is that Booth is a great pass blocker and an average runner while Fluff is a great runner and a sub par pass blocker based on the PFF metrics from Saturday's game. Booth will continue to get reps until Fluff blocks better.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:51 am to Quicksilver
quote:
He's very good too. Probably their best player on offense
Definitely not the best. Thompson is the best and supposedly the fastest in football. Clocked with NFL radar guns at 22+ mph.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:51 am to Hailstate2014
You'll do fine.
Aggy always, at least once a season, pulls his gun and shoots himself in the face. Its what they do. Book it this week-end it happens.
Aggy always, at least once a season, pulls his gun and shoots himself in the face. Its what they do. Book it this week-end it happens.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:53 am to SpreadsheetAg
Being 2-TD favorites and ranked in the top 6 as we take on Mississippi State is how I know we’re going to lose.
This post was edited on 9/30/25 at 10:57 am
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:54 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
curious about this one too. The O/U at 57 pts is a lot for a game that could turn into a dogfight and Vandy I suspect will try to slow the game down and hold onto TOS
To put this game into perspective, the college football nerds run a similar model to what you see above.
They have Bama and Vandy both as top 6 teams in the country and their model says Vandy should be favored by 3.5 on a neutral field (pick em on the road). Its not that Vandy is much better, they're just really good at something Bama is bad at: avoiding explosive run plays.
As a reference the model had Bama over UGA last week because Bama was really good at something UGA isnt: limiting the downfield passing game.
I wouldn't touch this line with a ten foot pole because it doesn't line up with the injuries up front for Bama (4 of the 8 DL from the two deep injured or suspended) and the existing run defense and gap issues for the linebackers.
This post was edited on 9/30/25 at 10:58 am
Posted on 9/30/25 at 10:57 am to tide06
Another weird one is Cincinnati being favored over Iowa State. That definitely screams trap line where they’re begging people to take undefeated #14 Iowa State in that one over Cincinnati. Do models actually have Cincinnati winning that game? Spread is Cincy -1.5 but collegefootballpoll site’s computer model says Iowa St should be a 11.5 point favorite
Posted on 9/30/25 at 11:01 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
FEI:
CINCY: 37
IA ST: 29
CFN MODEL RANK:
CINCY: 30
IA ST: 43
CFN MODEL PREDICTION:
CINCY: 25
IA ST: 21
CINCY: 37
IA ST: 29
CFN MODEL RANK:
CINCY: 30
IA ST: 43
CFN MODEL PREDICTION:
CINCY: 25
IA ST: 21
Posted on 9/30/25 at 11:11 am to SpreadsheetAg
I saw something Saturday I hadn't seen in MissSt.
They were pissed they lost. That means they expected to win. I know the game is at Kyle but I see State playing good and pissed off this week.
I think they beat Aggie by two scores.
They were pissed they lost. That means they expected to win. I know the game is at Kyle but I see State playing good and pissed off this week.
I think they beat Aggie by two scores.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 11:57 am to SpreadsheetAg
Probably about right. We are very banged up right now.
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