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I think we might be overreacting
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:21 am
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:21 am
While there is no doubt our offensive performance yesterday was abysmal, it’s worth keeping in mind that Auburn is 3-2 with both losses coming by 7 points or less against soon to be Top 6 opponents.
How many teams would be better than 3-2 had they played Auburn’s schedule thus far? I’m going to say probably fewer than 10.
Let’s go through our conference foes to see what Auburn’s record would be had we played their schedules up to this point, using ESPN FPI ratings as a barometer:
Missouri: currently 5-0 having beaten #27, #31, #109, #135, and an FCS team all at home.
Auburn would be 5-0 had we played their schedule.
Vanderbilt: currently 5-0 having beaten #27, #65, #77, #126, and an FCS team.
Auburn would be 5-0 had we played their schedule.
Mississippi State: currently 4-1 having beaten #29, #89, #103, and an FCS team. Their loss was at home to #13.
Auburn would certainly be 4-1 like them and possibly 5-0.
LSU: currently 4-1 having beaten #33, #45, #79, and an FCS team. Their loss was at #8.
Auburn would certainly be 4-1 like them and possibly 5-0 (I’m not sold on OM considering how close their games were against Arky and UK).
Tennessee: currently 4-1 having beaten
#37, #73, #121, and an FCS team. Their loss was at home to #7.
Auburn would likely be 4-1 just like them.
Texas: currently 3-1 with wins over #95, #155, and an FCS team. Their loss was to #2 on the road.
Auburn would certainly be 3-1 just like them.
Ole Miss: currently 5-0 with wins over #19, #38, #48, #58, and #126.
Auburn would easily be at least 4-1 and possibly 5-0 considering their toughest games have been at home.
My point in all of this is that we can’t throw the towel in on a season just because our schedule was front-loaded with 3 road games to start the season, two of which were against teams favored currently to make the CFB Playoff. Our schedule is filled with much more winnable games ahead, and we may very well end up with records equal to or better than many of those teams detailed above.
Every single one of those teams above will be ranked in this week’s AP Top 25 or just outside (MS State) and we all know Auburn would be in the same boat as them had we played their schedule to this point.
I also feel that every single one of those teams would likely be sitting at 3-2 or worse had they started off with Auburn’s schedule.
Let’s pump the breaks and support this team down the stretch. We are still favored to go 7-5 on the season, and 8-4 is still very attainable. Let’s not flip out over two close losses to Top 6 opponents on the road.
How many teams would be better than 3-2 had they played Auburn’s schedule thus far? I’m going to say probably fewer than 10.
Let’s go through our conference foes to see what Auburn’s record would be had we played their schedules up to this point, using ESPN FPI ratings as a barometer:
Missouri: currently 5-0 having beaten #27, #31, #109, #135, and an FCS team all at home.
Auburn would be 5-0 had we played their schedule.
Vanderbilt: currently 5-0 having beaten #27, #65, #77, #126, and an FCS team.
Auburn would be 5-0 had we played their schedule.
Mississippi State: currently 4-1 having beaten #29, #89, #103, and an FCS team. Their loss was at home to #13.
Auburn would certainly be 4-1 like them and possibly 5-0.
LSU: currently 4-1 having beaten #33, #45, #79, and an FCS team. Their loss was at #8.
Auburn would certainly be 4-1 like them and possibly 5-0 (I’m not sold on OM considering how close their games were against Arky and UK).
Tennessee: currently 4-1 having beaten
#37, #73, #121, and an FCS team. Their loss was at home to #7.
Auburn would likely be 4-1 just like them.
Texas: currently 3-1 with wins over #95, #155, and an FCS team. Their loss was to #2 on the road.
Auburn would certainly be 3-1 just like them.
Ole Miss: currently 5-0 with wins over #19, #38, #48, #58, and #126.
Auburn would easily be at least 4-1 and possibly 5-0 considering their toughest games have been at home.
My point in all of this is that we can’t throw the towel in on a season just because our schedule was front-loaded with 3 road games to start the season, two of which were against teams favored currently to make the CFB Playoff. Our schedule is filled with much more winnable games ahead, and we may very well end up with records equal to or better than many of those teams detailed above.
Every single one of those teams above will be ranked in this week’s AP Top 25 or just outside (MS State) and we all know Auburn would be in the same boat as them had we played their schedule to this point.
I also feel that every single one of those teams would likely be sitting at 3-2 or worse had they started off with Auburn’s schedule.
Let’s pump the breaks and support this team down the stretch. We are still favored to go 7-5 on the season, and 8-4 is still very attainable. Let’s not flip out over two close losses to Top 6 opponents on the road.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 11:44 am
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Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:23 am to AUTiger789
We are not getting better. Other than the defense, nothing about this team has improved since Harsin left. Nothing.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:29 am to AUTiger789
It does not take but 17 points to beat us.
We would have lost to any team with a pulse and a break or two.
We would have lost to any team with a pulse and a break or two.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:31 am to Aubie Spr96
Three straight seasons of bafflingly bad offense and in-game coaching regardless of who is calling plays, who is playing QB, and how much talent is on the field, and this guy thinks that we are "over-reacting" LOL.
No, man. Freeze isn't it and it has been proven. We will not "turn it around" and we will not "figure it out". He is a fundamentally bad coach, which means that we are in line for another 5-6 win season.
He is finished.
No, man. Freeze isn't it and it has been proven. We will not "turn it around" and we will not "figure it out". He is a fundamentally bad coach, which means that we are in line for another 5-6 win season.
He is finished.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:35 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
We are not getting better.
The metrics show that we have.
ESPN FPI ranking by season:
2022: #42
2023: #34
2024: #31
2025: #23 (currently)
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:44 am to AUTiger789
A loss isn't the issue imo. Close losses on the road against top 10 teams is understandable. Its the how. The offense just cannot be that bad, ever. That's including the penalties, the bad play calling and the poor OL and QB play. If we lost 34-28.. its whatever. Only scoring once because the defense gave you the ball at the 2 is a problem.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:45 am to AUTiger789
I understand what you are saying but we don’t look like we can beat anyone.
Texas A&M isn’t some defensive elite team. We scored 3 on them. We can’t even do the little things right on offense.
Talent we are better than 8 teams on our schedule. But who today thinks we win against UGA, Missouri, Vandy, Bama? So we probably beat Arkansas, UK, and Mercer.
Another thing to add on top this season and last season we have one of the weaker schedules in my lifetime of fandom.
Texas A&M isn’t some defensive elite team. We scored 3 on them. We can’t even do the little things right on offense.
Talent we are better than 8 teams on our schedule. But who today thinks we win against UGA, Missouri, Vandy, Bama? So we probably beat Arkansas, UK, and Mercer.
Another thing to add on top this season and last season we have one of the weaker schedules in my lifetime of fandom.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:50 am to AUTiger789
Statistically, A&M was not good defensively against the run. So, Hugh developed an offensive gameplan that ignored the run.
We're not overreacting.
We're not overreacting.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:51 am to makersmark1
quote:
It does not take but 17 points to beat us.
We would have lost to any team with a pulse and a break or two.
Baylor has a pulse, and we scored 38 points on them… the same number of points that Rhett Lashlee’s SMU scored against them in regulation, and more than Arizona State did also. Arizona State will likely be ranked in this week’s AP Poll.
Arizona State is about to move into the Top 25. We have a common opponent, having both played Baylor in Waco. Auburn won by 14 there… ASU by just 3.
Again this is my point. Had ASU played our schedule, they’d be 3-2 just like us only their losses would have been more lopsided.
Had we played their schedule, we’d have easily been 4-1 just like them, and possibly better. I think we could have beaten State unlike them.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:54 am to jt33
quote:
A loss isn't the issue imo. Close losses on the road against top 10 teams is understandable.
Uhh. Apparently not.
quote:
If we lost 34-28.. its whatever.
No everyone would be complaining about BOTH the offense and the defense instead of just one side of the ball.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:55 am to AUTiger789
Someone bookmark this thread so we can bump it later.
Is this guy seriously trying to use the SCHEDULE as an excuse and trying to derp his way into saying we'd be better if we had played other schedules?
Are you even watching the games? Who gives a shite how many we scored against Baylor - that offense was either a fluke, or it has disappeared. It won't come back.
Is this guy seriously trying to use the SCHEDULE as an excuse and trying to derp his way into saying we'd be better if we had played other schedules?
Are you even watching the games? Who gives a shite how many we scored against Baylor - that offense was either a fluke, or it has disappeared. It won't come back.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 11:59 am to CorchJay
quote:
But who today thinks we win against UGA, Missouri, Vandy, Bama? So we probably beat Arkansas, UK, and Mercer.
Auburn will be favored against UK, Arky, and Mercer for sure.
As for the others, yes, if we played Oklahoma and A&M on the road to within 7 points, I think beating Missouri and Vandy is very possible. Those are for sure not certain losses.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:00 pm to AUTiger789
We lost by 6 yesterday but if we’re being honest it felt like a 4 TD loss. We’re not improving. It does not feel like we’re on a very good track.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:00 pm to AUTiger789
Are Hugh and Thornton still employed as coaches at Auburn? If so then we're under reacting.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:00 pm to AUTiger789
That and Hugh’s short game ought to get us to Birmingham to match up with a good C-USA team, and a chance for Hugh to play Shoal Creek, Birmingham CC, and Pine Tree CC.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:03 pm to RandySavage
quote:
Are Hugh and Thornton still employed as coaches at Auburn? If so then we're under reacting.
Okay then. What’s your plan? Who is Auburn going to realistically get for a HC having just fired one after 2 seasons and another after 3 seasons? You think the list of realistic possibilities was bad last go round, let’s see how bad it will be this next time.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:05 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Baylor has a pulse, and we scored 38 points on them
With an entire off-season to practice for it. You dont get that once you get into the SEC schedule. The offensive staff has no clue how to gameplan and/or execute a plan when it comes time to play the game.
8 carries by RBs in a game where the defense holds the other team to 16 points is absolutely ridiculous. And half of those carries were on 3rd and long conceding the punt. That's beyond stupid.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:08 pm to metafour
quote:
Is this guy seriously trying to use the SCHEDULE as an excuse and trying to derp his way into saying we'd be better if we had played other schedules?
Absolutely schedule has to do with it.
Tell me with facts where my OP is wrong.
My point is that if Drinkwitz, Lee, Lebby, Heupel, etc had all faced our exact schedule, they too would be 3-2. Conversely, had Auburn faced their schedules, Hugh would be 4-1 or 5-0 and ranked in this week’s AP Poll.
Tell me what in that statement is incorrect.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:10 pm to AUTiger789
With all due respect i do not understand this line of thinking. Yes we would most likely have to take a chance on a up and coming coordinator or a head coach who has had success at a smaller school. Is it guaranteed to work? No, but it might. What's definitely not going to work is believing after all these years Hugh is suddenly going to figure it out.
As i said in the game thread yesterday. We are worse offensively now than we were with a checked out Haskins coaching tj Finley behind a Gus offensive line. What good do you think is going to come from continuing down this path? The talent level is going to drop, Hugh looks completely defeated on the sidelines and in his press conferences, he's out of ideas and seems to lack whatever enthusiasm he once had.
As i said in the game thread yesterday. We are worse offensively now than we were with a checked out Haskins coaching tj Finley behind a Gus offensive line. What good do you think is going to come from continuing down this path? The talent level is going to drop, Hugh looks completely defeated on the sidelines and in his press conferences, he's out of ideas and seems to lack whatever enthusiasm he once had.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 12:15 pm to AUTiger789
The offense fricking sucks.
Our defense is playoff caliber.
We’ve experienced this multiple times over the past 15 years. We’re sick of it.
Our defense is playoff caliber.
We’ve experienced this multiple times over the past 15 years. We’re sick of it.
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