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Is NIL/portal really the culprit for the increased parity?
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:42 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:42 am
If you look at the rosters, UGA, Bama, LSU, Ohio State, etc. all have as much talent as they ever have.
But all of them lost multiple games, many of which they never would have lost a few years ago. They were also involved in many, many close games against inferior teams despite having vastly superior talent.
Hard to explain.
But all of them lost multiple games, many of which they never would have lost a few years ago. They were also involved in many, many close games against inferior teams despite having vastly superior talent.
Hard to explain.
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Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:45 am to armtackledawg
And fewer teams are hanging on to a solid roster with which to develop and become a functioning unit.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:45 am to armtackledawg
You don't get to stack talent (backups) like you used to. They go elsewhere if they aren't starting. This builds up the smaller schools who take people who want to start, and it hurts the bigger schools when they have to rotate in players past their starters due to injury (or in some cases, like DL, just because you need to rotate players in). I think lack of depth, particularly on the lines, is a big reason SEC isn't dominating anymore.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 7:47 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:45 am to armtackledawg
I love the change.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:47 am to CatholicLSUDude
quote:
You don't get to stack talent (backups) like you used to.
This. The starters are going to stay with the top teams. But some of the top talent that is being asked to ride the bench for 2 years don't want to wait.
on the field production brings them more NIL money than riding the bench.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:49 am to CatholicLSUDude
quote:
I think lack of depth, particularly on the lines, is a big reason SEC isn't dominating anymore.
This is not UGA's problem. Nor is it Bama's as far as I can tell. Ours is assistant coaching and receivers.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:51 am to armtackledawg
Like others have said, it's the backups transferring out. LSU has an injury on their o-line against A&M and suddenly they can't pass block to save their life. Our best backup transferred out this past off-season.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:52 am to armtackledawg
It definitely has had an impact. Looking at UGA specifically, our OL is a shell of what it was from ~2018-2022. Part of that is steadily downgraded coaching, but it also is partly an issue of top OTs being paid so much out of HS. UGA hasn’t shown the inclination over the past 2 years to really aggressively pay what appears to be market rate for a 5* OT. I understand that from a roster management perspective, but it shows in the talent level at OT.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 7:53 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:55 am to armtackledawg
quote:
If you look at the rosters, UGA, Bama, LSU, Ohio State, etc. all have as much talent as they ever have.
I actually think that’s only true for Ohio State (who went out and spent $25M on a roster).
UGA, Bama, and LSU didn’t play that game and lost a combined 11 games for it.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:58 am to armtackledawg
Yes. Lines of scrimmage are not as deep as they once were. Teams can’t roll out 2 deep at every position group anymore.Those solid backups we once had now transfer to places like TCU, Wisconsin or Arizona State to be starters. At some big time programs, the drop off between your starting qb and backup is jaw dropping since all these kids think they should be starting as sophomores and leave. It’s about loading older players via the portal to make short runs now at a title. Ohio State is losing 15 starters not counting juniors who will enter draft. Oregon is losing 16 starters not counting juniors who will enter draft. And both are losing grad transfer qbs. Hell, Ole Piss is losing 18 starters and maybe more if Nolan leaves. Arizona State is losing over half their old starters. The portal and NIL has spread players. The SEC still recruits better as a conference than anyone, with 7 of the top 10 classes this year. But no one wants to wait their turn and that kills depth. Hell, our 2023 class was #5 nationally and we’ve lost over 50% of the high school players to the portal.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 7:59 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:59 am to armtackledawg
I think it’s being overstated currently. Most of the weaker Power Four programs/conferences were still bad this season. The ACC is 2-10 in bowl season and the Big 12 is 4-5. The SEC sits at 8-6.
Yes, the SEC has been disappointing, but most of the losses haven’t come against programs that benefit from parity. In fact, four of the six losses have been against traditional blue blood programs in Michigan, Notre Dame, USC, and Ohio State. All of those programs consistently have rosters that are as strong as the top half of the SEC’s programs.
Only Oklahoma (Navy) really lost to a team with inferior talent, and it’s tough to convince me that a service academy is benefiting from the NIL era in a major way.
If you take a peak at team talent composition rankings, it’s still the usual suspects at the top of the list. NIL hasn’t magically changed that. I think the SEC just shite the bed in a couple games, Georgia was missing their starting QB, and Alabama has a first-year head coach who didn’t have his guys ready for a bowl game that they were probably not excited to play.
Yes, the SEC has been disappointing, but most of the losses haven’t come against programs that benefit from parity. In fact, four of the six losses have been against traditional blue blood programs in Michigan, Notre Dame, USC, and Ohio State. All of those programs consistently have rosters that are as strong as the top half of the SEC’s programs.
Only Oklahoma (Navy) really lost to a team with inferior talent, and it’s tough to convince me that a service academy is benefiting from the NIL era in a major way.
If you take a peak at team talent composition rankings, it’s still the usual suspects at the top of the list. NIL hasn’t magically changed that. I think the SEC just shite the bed in a couple games, Georgia was missing their starting QB, and Alabama has a first-year head coach who didn’t have his guys ready for a bowl game that they were probably not excited to play.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:00 am to armtackledawg
quote:Is it though? We’re giving teens hundreds of thousands of dollars up front and a free out if things get a little hard. And, we wonder why they’re not as motivated/focused.
Hard to explain.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 8:05 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:06 am to armtackledawg
It's always been like this. Teams were just left out in the old beauty contest
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:09 am to armtackledawg
I don’t think there’s any doubt it has had/will have an effect. The Bamas and Georgias were just using the system as it was at the time. Can’t blame Nick and Kirby for that.
But this arrangement is not sustainable long term. Even the NFL has a structure and system in place with contracts, trade rules and deadlines, etc. Yes, guys hold out in contract negotiations but they don’t see the field until a deal is done.
I don’t pretend to know all the complexities of how the NFL does it, but you can’t have this harum scarum Wild West situation of kids leaving for the biggest bag every year. Something’s gotta give.
But this arrangement is not sustainable long term. Even the NFL has a structure and system in place with contracts, trade rules and deadlines, etc. Yes, guys hold out in contract negotiations but they don’t see the field until a deal is done.
I don’t pretend to know all the complexities of how the NFL does it, but you can’t have this harum scarum Wild West situation of kids leaving for the biggest bag every year. Something’s gotta give.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:11 am to armtackledawg
quote:
Hard to explain.
No. We are morphing into NFL without any structure. Yale or Harvard can be competitive if they choose to spend the money which they have tons.
My team crapped the bed and I’m fine losing two games per year. Any SEC team with two loses or less are in a soon to be 16 team playoff.
I’ve spent money going to BCS and other Championship Games. I am convinced these games need to be played at higher ranked teams stadium to reduce costs to fans.
Have the semi finals New Year’s Day at the same venue. Have 4 hours between games to clear out other fans etc.
Natty at Highest ranked teams stadium two weeks later at 2:30 so game ends so fans can get home! NOT A Monday night
This means only one big travel game for your best teams
Fans save money. Oh wait, you think Disney or any of the leagues really care about the fans?
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:12 am to bamaoldtimer
I think in the new era, some players no longer have the motivation
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:15 am to armtackledawg
When Saban retires and Georgia has a down season, all in the same calendar year, the SEC will have a "down season."
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:17 am to BreakawayZou83
quote:Not sure you can make the last statement.
Alabama has a first-year head coach who didn’t have his guys ready for a bowl game that they were probably not excited to play.
Michigan has a very good defense, we had a qb who botched a handoff, stared down a deep out, and had a ball batted out of his hand. Michigan had exactly one scoring drive of longer than 17 yards.
Outside of QB and Pritchett (OT), team wasn’t terrible. Defense played well.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:18 am to armtackledawg
This is one of the lesser talented lsu teams of the last 25 years.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:18 am to BevoBucks
I don’t think people realize the amount of pressure so many of these players get from their families to be their golden ticket. These kids are 18 and 19 and their moms and dads make it known to them that they are depending on them financially. It’s fricken gross to put pressure on your kid like that, make your own money dad. Rather than making smart decisions about their own long term futures, they’re going after short term money to buy mama a car. Compound that with the fact that even less of them play school anymore and it’s a disaster.
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