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Is Alabama's offense really that Boom or Bust?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:40 pm
This morning I've been watching some prediction shows for the weekend and the narrative has been repeated that the Alabama offense can't sustain drives and is either boom or bust. So I thought I'd take a at look at the Alabama drive charts through the first 3 games and see if that was actually true.
Not including meaningless drives to end the half/game, Alabama has had the ball 40 times so far this season. Here's a breakdown of the results:
21 drives ended in a touchdown (52.5%)
15 drives ended in a punt (37.5%)
3 drives ended with a fumble (7.5)
1 drive ended with a missed FG (2.5%)
(Side note, I don't remember a season where we went this long without a single made field goal)
There are some concerning things hidden in the numbers that might bear out what the pundits are saying about our offense. Of those 21 TD drives:
6 (29%) were "short field" touchdown drives of less than 40 yards. Most of those were 3 plays or less. Not much of a chance to sustain a drive when you're already that close. The one outlier was the 7 play, 28 yard drive in the first half against Wisconsin.
8 (38%) were quick strike drives of less than 4 plays and more than 60 yards.
The remaining 7 (33%) were drives of between 5 and 10 plays and covered from 53 to 75 yards. Also, two of the longer drives were Ty Simpson-led drives at the end of the WKU game.
Of the 15 punt drives, 12 (80%) were 3 and outs (one against USF included a 75 yd TD run by Milroe that was called back by a holding penalty.) 2 of the other punts were 5 play drives and the last one was at the end of the Wisconsin game, an 11 play drive led by Ty Simpson that took 6:32 off the clock.
2 of the fumble drives were less than 3 plays, the other was an 11 play drive that covered 51 yards.
The missed FG came at the end of a 10 play, 48 yard drive.
So, if you considered a sustained drive as a minimum 5 play scoring drive that covers 50 or more yards (these are just numbers I came up with, if you have a better metric, let me know) Alabama has only sustained 7 drives all season, which works out to 17.5%. If you take out the two Simpson drives at the end of WKU, that drops to 12.5%. Alabama has certainly benefitted from quick scoring drives.
If you consider a "bust" to be a non-scoring offensive drive of 5 plays or less, covering less than 15 yards, Alabama has had "busted" drives 16 times (40%)
I could go deeper into the numbers but I don't have time right now. The bottom line is this: Alabama has done the majority of its scoring on "boom" drives, comprising just 35 plays across 13 drives (32.5%) for an average of 2.7 plays per drive.
I'm not sure that's a sustainable pace. If we can't consistently move the ball better, we will be susceptible to a team that can grind out long drives and shorten the game for us. Alabama will need close to 14 drives in any given game to hit their average scoring mark. If a team comes along and can hold them to 10 or less while also not turning the ball over and giving Alabama a short field... that's a recipe for a tough day for the Tide, both with scoring and handling a tired defense.
Not including meaningless drives to end the half/game, Alabama has had the ball 40 times so far this season. Here's a breakdown of the results:
21 drives ended in a touchdown (52.5%)
15 drives ended in a punt (37.5%)
3 drives ended with a fumble (7.5)
1 drive ended with a missed FG (2.5%)
(Side note, I don't remember a season where we went this long without a single made field goal)
There are some concerning things hidden in the numbers that might bear out what the pundits are saying about our offense. Of those 21 TD drives:
6 (29%) were "short field" touchdown drives of less than 40 yards. Most of those were 3 plays or less. Not much of a chance to sustain a drive when you're already that close. The one outlier was the 7 play, 28 yard drive in the first half against Wisconsin.
8 (38%) were quick strike drives of less than 4 plays and more than 60 yards.
The remaining 7 (33%) were drives of between 5 and 10 plays and covered from 53 to 75 yards. Also, two of the longer drives were Ty Simpson-led drives at the end of the WKU game.
Of the 15 punt drives, 12 (80%) were 3 and outs (one against USF included a 75 yd TD run by Milroe that was called back by a holding penalty.) 2 of the other punts were 5 play drives and the last one was at the end of the Wisconsin game, an 11 play drive led by Ty Simpson that took 6:32 off the clock.
2 of the fumble drives were less than 3 plays, the other was an 11 play drive that covered 51 yards.
The missed FG came at the end of a 10 play, 48 yard drive.
So, if you considered a sustained drive as a minimum 5 play scoring drive that covers 50 or more yards (these are just numbers I came up with, if you have a better metric, let me know) Alabama has only sustained 7 drives all season, which works out to 17.5%. If you take out the two Simpson drives at the end of WKU, that drops to 12.5%. Alabama has certainly benefitted from quick scoring drives.
If you consider a "bust" to be a non-scoring offensive drive of 5 plays or less, covering less than 15 yards, Alabama has had "busted" drives 16 times (40%)
I could go deeper into the numbers but I don't have time right now. The bottom line is this: Alabama has done the majority of its scoring on "boom" drives, comprising just 35 plays across 13 drives (32.5%) for an average of 2.7 plays per drive.
I'm not sure that's a sustainable pace. If we can't consistently move the ball better, we will be susceptible to a team that can grind out long drives and shorten the game for us. Alabama will need close to 14 drives in any given game to hit their average scoring mark. If a team comes along and can hold them to 10 or less while also not turning the ball over and giving Alabama a short field... that's a recipe for a tough day for the Tide, both with scoring and handling a tired defense.
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Posted on 9/25/24 at 12:57 pm to Goombaw
We did this same thing last year. I want to say around Tennessee there were a few PFF comments about Milroe having >50% of his passing yardage from passes that were 20+ air yards. Our passing game was predicated on hitting Burton or someone deep to score.
It took us until what, game 9 or 10 to have a passing touchdown in the redzone? The two we had against Georgia were a 28 yard RB wheel route and then a strike to Burton in the back of the endzone from the 20. It didn't shock me that we went with a draw against Michigan from the 2 yard line, we hadn't operated a short passing game in the redzone at all that year.
We're very much predicated on the deep ball to score through the air or being able to enforce our will at the line. If you can cover the deep ball, then it becomes much easier to stop the run since we don't punish the middle of the field or in the short passing game. Hence why you see USF's approach work so well, stack the box and eliminate the run/pressure the QB who's waiting for long developing routes.
The upside of this quick scoring approach is we can build a lead quickly. The downside is that more talented teams can prevent that, and make it more difficult not only for us to score but to also keep our defense off the field. In a war of attrition we'll lose or be put at a significant disadvantage without sustatining drives.
It took us until what, game 9 or 10 to have a passing touchdown in the redzone? The two we had against Georgia were a 28 yard RB wheel route and then a strike to Burton in the back of the endzone from the 20. It didn't shock me that we went with a draw against Michigan from the 2 yard line, we hadn't operated a short passing game in the redzone at all that year.
We're very much predicated on the deep ball to score through the air or being able to enforce our will at the line. If you can cover the deep ball, then it becomes much easier to stop the run since we don't punish the middle of the field or in the short passing game. Hence why you see USF's approach work so well, stack the box and eliminate the run/pressure the QB who's waiting for long developing routes.
The upside of this quick scoring approach is we can build a lead quickly. The downside is that more talented teams can prevent that, and make it more difficult not only for us to score but to also keep our defense off the field. In a war of attrition we'll lose or be put at a significant disadvantage without sustatining drives.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:23 pm to Goombaw
But you cant say that we would not have scored anyway on some of the short, big play drives if we had an incomplete pass or whatever on the big play. Some of those were first down plays. So, you really have to eliminate all the big play drives, like they never happened, and then calculate your percentages.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:28 pm to UhOhOreo
That was some of the deeper stuff in the numbers that I didn't have time to get into. Just a cursory glance at the drives showed a real lack of red zone passing, only 1 passing touchdown in the redzone so far this year (Kobe Prentice from the 16 against USF.)
Also, it was interesting to see just how many of the sustained drives actually ended with a fairly long play. Alabama hasn't "punched in" very many TD's this season.
Also, it was interesting to see just how many of the sustained drives actually ended with a fairly long play. Alabama hasn't "punched in" very many TD's this season.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:31 pm to Goombaw
I’d say that yes so far YTD it has been extremely boom or bust.
Id also argue that the current data is completely jacked from playing USF without our tackles.
4th quarter USF and all of Wisconsin indicates to me that the OL is more than capable of keeping Bama ahead of the sticks when per Josh Pate Jam Miller hs one of the best yards before contact rates in the country.
I don’t think we will fully show how good we are healthy against UGA because their defense is ultra elite, but as long as the line is intact I believe we are much better than the numbers.
Id also argue that the current data is completely jacked from playing USF without our tackles.
4th quarter USF and all of Wisconsin indicates to me that the OL is more than capable of keeping Bama ahead of the sticks when per Josh Pate Jam Miller hs one of the best yards before contact rates in the country.
I don’t think we will fully show how good we are healthy against UGA because their defense is ultra elite, but as long as the line is intact I believe we are much better than the numbers.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 1:38 pm to Goombaw
In the Redzone:
Alabama has run it 32 times and passed it 5 times. They have scored TDs on 9 out of 11 red zone trips.
Alabama has the 33rd most red zone TDs despite having the 11th most overall TDs. So Alabama is scoring most of its TDs from outside of the red zone, which I think is unusual.
Alabama has run it 32 times and passed it 5 times. They have scored TDs on 9 out of 11 red zone trips.
Alabama has the 33rd most red zone TDs despite having the 11th most overall TDs. So Alabama is scoring most of its TDs from outside of the red zone, which I think is unusual.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 2:44 pm to Goombaw
Yeah those numbers are pretty damning. Also interesting that Ty Simpson has a much higher percentage of being able to drive the ball down the field.
Milroe basically depends on the WR getting wide-arse open via a bust in coverage.
This is why I think we should run Milroe like a rented Mule. That's definitely his strong suit. Running the ball seems to be back in style and really effective this year.
If Milroe gets hurt, we just bring in the guy who's a better game manager, and can hit all of the short to intermediate throws. Ty Simpson is our Carson Beck.
It's kind of like Michigan this year. They had success once they brought in Alex Orji, and just started running the ball.
We need to do the same. Aside from QB, Milroe is one of the best running backs in college football
Milroe basically depends on the WR getting wide-arse open via a bust in coverage.
This is why I think we should run Milroe like a rented Mule. That's definitely his strong suit. Running the ball seems to be back in style and really effective this year.
If Milroe gets hurt, we just bring in the guy who's a better game manager, and can hit all of the short to intermediate throws. Ty Simpson is our Carson Beck.
It's kind of like Michigan this year. They had success once they brought in Alex Orji, and just started running the ball.
We need to do the same. Aside from QB, Milroe is one of the best running backs in college football
Posted on 9/25/24 at 3:00 pm to BasedCrimson
quote:
Milroe basically depends on the WR getting wide-arse open via a bust in coverage.
Maybe I’m crazy but other than Cuevas and the first of Williams’ career, what td passes for Milroe have been wide-arse open?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 3:05 pm to Goombaw
I know very little about scheming, but can you really dial up an attempt at a big running play? A lot of our quick drives have been our runningbacks being studs and the line blocking well. Is there a chance that those 70 yard runs simply become 20 yarders against good defenses
Also more than one person has pointed out that we haven’t even attempted any misdirection and have been very plain in the running game. If we have great backs, a great line, and a great scheme, the consistency will come
Also more than one person has pointed out that we haven’t even attempted any misdirection and have been very plain in the running game. If we have great backs, a great line, and a great scheme, the consistency will come
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 9/25/24 at 3:08 pm to Glorious
The idea that Milroe only hits wide open guys for TDs is braindead levels of stupid.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 3:36 pm to Goombaw
I’m interested to see if we were just being very vanilla or if milroe just is who he’s been so far. Hopefully he’s progressed and it’s the former
Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:39 pm to Goombaw
I don’t have a problem with quick strike drives but we’ve got to eliminate the 3 and outs. Those will kill our defense at some point.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 5:28 pm to Bham Bammer
I agree, 40% of our drives have ended in under 2 minutes of actual game time with no score to pay it off. That’s not going to work against a team like Tennessee that will wear your defense out on a good day.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:07 pm to Bham Bammer
quote:
I don’t have a problem with quick strike drives but we’ve got to eliminate the 3 and outs. Those will kill our defense at some point.
3 and outs are a part of the game. Every drive isn't going to be long and every drive isn't going to result in a TD.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:11 pm to BasedCrimson
quote:
Also interesting that Ty Simpson has a much higher percentage of being able to drive the ball down the field.
Cuz he's had 3 drives against Western Kentucky and Wisconsin's backups?
quote:
Milroe basically depends on the WR getting wide-arse open via a bust in coverage.
His TD to Bernard against Wisky was thrown before Germie even came out of his break. Cuevas may have been wide open but he was Jalen's 3rd or 4th read.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:02 pm to YStar
quote:
3 and outs are a part of the game.
Of course. But if we are going to be a playoff team, we need to have fewer of them than we have had so far.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:01 pm to UhOhOreo
What does this look like compared to recent National Champions and playoff teams?
ETA: Whoops: meant to the OP in case there was any reference data.
ETA: Whoops: meant to the OP in case there was any reference data.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:10 pm to YStar
quote:
3 and outs are a part of the game. Every drive isn't going to be long and every drive isn't going to result in a TD.
Oh, cool then. Now that we know it's just part of the game, we won't worry if we have a lot of them. Now, that I think of it, interceptions are also part of the game. We can do those too now. Losses are part of the game! Hell, something like half of all teams lose every week. As long as we don't lose much more than 50% of the games, it's just normal football! This is fun!
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:03 pm to Goombaw
As of today the answer is yes.
In a few weeks who knows, right now I think the coaching staff is still figuring out what works and what this team doesn’t do well against quality competition.
In a few weeks who knows, right now I think the coaching staff is still figuring out what works and what this team doesn’t do well against quality competition.
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