Athletic Article on 8 vs 9 games and ESPN not paying

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ESPN's deal with the SEC, which kicks in next year, is estimated to be for about $811 million per year for 10 years. It was signed prior to Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference but is believed to contain a pro rata clause that, in the event of expansion, increases the payment by an amount equal to what each school was set to get: $58 million per year per school would mean the new value of the contract would be about $927 million.

But this is where it gets thorny and where scheduling comes in.

The SEC has made the case to ESPN that this is not just two schools; this is Oklahoma and Texas. The SEC also can argue that by going to a nine-game schedule, it will provide more marquee games. For instance, Texas-Texas A&M every year, rather than twice every four years. Ditto for Alabama-Tennessee, Auburn-Georgia and other games that would be one of three annual games, rather than one in an eight-game format.

But how much more worth it that is to ESPN is unclear. If the network was bowled over by the possibility, a deal would have been announced by now.

So for the SEC schools already disposed to favor eight games, there isn't a huge financial incentive to change your vote. Let's say ESPN was offering to go over the pro rata amount a bit but not by that much. Kentucky or another school could say: Why vote for an extra conference game, which would mean one fewer home game every other year, when you get $2 to $3 million from home games with a fourth nonconference game? And yes, bowl eligibility or just having a more impressive record figures into it as well.
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Spring meetings begin May 30 in Destin. A decision does not have to be made that week theoretically, a schedule could be announced much later but at this point, people around the conference appear tired of the topic and just ready to vote.

There's still some belief that nine-game proponents will win out. Those tend to be from the more traditional powers: Alabama, Georgia and Florida are in favor, Texas A&M has been vocal in pushing for nine and so on.

But there's enough pushback from the others, not just Kentucky, that one official in the conference speculated it could end up an 8-8 tie. Then what?

Sankey has been careful not to say what he favors, but many believe he's in the nine-game category, and he could make his case in the room to the holdouts, pleading for the greater good. And that's why the belief remains that when the next SEC schedule is announced, a 2024 slate including Oklahoma and Texas, it'll be a nine-game schedule.

Probably.
Maybe.
We'll see.

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