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Math The Cost to Get Rid of Gus vs. Keeping Him

Posted on 12/9/20 at 8:50 am
Posted by allin2010
Auburn
Member since Aug 2011
18447 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 8:50 am
This does not include assistants..

Get Rid of Gus Now, 21 Million Buyout

Keep Gus One More Year, 23 Million (7 Million Next Year, plus his buyout 16 million).

Keep Gus 4 More Years, 28 Million.

Save 2 Million by firing Gus on Sunday/Monday, hire a Billy Napier type for 4 million. TOTAL COST TO AUBURN IS THEN ONLY 2 MILLION per year.
Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
22813 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 8:52 am to
Wouldn't we need somebody to step-up and make that initial payment ($10 mil, I believe)?

Here's looking at you, Yella Fella!
This post was edited on 12/9/20 at 8:53 am
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
53841 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 8:56 am to
quote:

Wouldn't we need somebody to step-up and make that initial payment ($10 mil, I believe)?

Here's looking at you, Yella Fella!




Someone call Tim Cook.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
86129 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:07 am to
I'd let Siri coach if Cook gets us out of this contract
Posted by jvilletiger25
jacksonville, fl
Member since Jan 2014
20541 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:10 am to
Don’t forget the cost of stagnant recruiting the longer he stays
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
45015 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:14 am to
You have to factor in the cost of a new staff to capture the real cost of replacement. This is like doing an analysis on what you actually pay for a car, but choose to ignore interest.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14319 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Don’t forget the cost of stagnant recruiting the longer he stays



And the cost of apathetic fans
Posted by AUNashville
New Haven
Member since Jul 2014
3561 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:20 am to
Isn't only 10 million due to be paid within 30 days of the termination? That's seems like a significant factor to me the lessens the burden. It's not like we have to fork out 21 million in a lump sum.
Posted by makersmark1
earth
Member since Oct 2011
20492 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 9:36 am to
Will the next contract be a straight jacket?

I think that’s the main issue.

Gus is an ok coach making legend coach money.

We should base more compensation on bonuses for on field results in the future.
Posted by metafour
Member since Feb 2007
4458 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 10:06 am to
quote:

You have to factor in the cost of a new staff to capture the real cost of replacement. This is like doing an analysis on what you actually pay for a car, but choose to ignore interest.


You also need to factor in the fact that keeping the current staff in place doesn't just present a loss on return on investment on Gus Malzahn alone, but the entire staff as well. Kevin Steele makes $2.5 mill a year - are we getting $2.5 mill worth of performance from his unit this season? Definitely not, and I doubt its going to be a $2.5 mill defense next year either even if we keep Malzahn. I haven't seen anyone on here talking about it, but the rest of the staff has kinda given up as well or is at minimum teetering on the edge.

What you don't get is that we're in a situation now where everyone can see that we're at the end of times. When that happens, people tend to check out and start thinking about what their next job is going to be. Nobody is busting their arse on the recruiting trail anymore. That means that we're losing money EVERYWHERE by keeping this staff in place.

Yes, replacing Malzahn also means buying out the current staff on top of paying an entirely new staff. HOWEVER, an entirely new staff is going to come in here and work their asses off for that money. That is what happens when a new coach comes in and brings new life into the program. That means that that there is an opportunity to gain a positive return on investment by making a change, even if it costs money up front to do it.

Here is a better analogy for you: we have a car that we paid $60,000 for that turned out to be a lemon - it's actually a $20,000 car. Not only is it a $20,000 car, but its now at the end of its life cycle and has lost any sense of reliability it once possessed. It constantly needs repairs and who knows if it will even start up tomorrow to get you to work on time. Now, you can buy a new car that will all-in end up being a $75,000 investment. Yes, it's more money and you're going to need to front a significant amount of money up front - but this car presents the luxuries of a brand new vehicle. Not only does it look shinier and not dented, but it actually runs and won't require major maintenance in the near future.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
45015 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 10:10 am to
There is no way to spin firing Gus is a cost savings. Let's just fire him because he is a complete failure, and does not do what he is paid for. Highlight how we are having to over pay him to leave, then learn from our mistakes. Make sure the president and BOT has more transparency and enact a few gates they need to pass before AU agrees to a ridiculous contract in the future.
Posted by kage
ATL
Member since Feb 2010
4068 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 10:35 am to
quote:

I'd let Siri coach if Cook gets us out of this contract


- Hey Siri, we just got a first down and we can hurry up to the LOS and run a quick play. What should we run?

- Run it straight up the middle

- Ummm, we did that last time and got one yard

- Run it straight up the middle

- But they know that's exactly what we're going to do

- Run it straight up the middle.

- ::long exasperated sigh:: Ok, whatever
Posted by TheMidnightTiger
Member since Jun 2018
2372 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 11:08 am to
Money is a non-issue.

Auburn has mega-donors who are waiting patiently
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
3426 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 11:20 am to
quote:

- Run it straight up the middle

- Ummm, we did that last time and got one yard

- Run it straight up the middle

- But they know that's exactly what we're going to do

- Run it straight up the middle.

Sounds like Jack Crowe play calling...
Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
22813 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Auburn has mega-donors who are waiting patiently

What are they waiting for? It seems as though the $ is the big hangup. Wouldn't they be offering to start writing checks?
Posted by Swoopin
Member since Jun 2011
22045 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 12:02 pm to
What’s making me anxious is that this seems to be a good year to pull the trigger as far as other vacancies. No one of note in the SEC or south in general to compete with. It’s a buyers market for HC right now for Auburn.

ETA. You have to assume next year we’re potentially competing with LSU and Tennessee.
This post was edited on 12/9/20 at 12:05 pm
Posted by CorchJay
Member since Nov 2018
21104 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 5:02 pm to
If we are expected to be better then LSU or UT why would it matter if they have openings. That's been the entire argument for getting rid of Gus is that we are the better program or should be with the money we are willing to pay.

I still don't think Gus gets fired. I don't think he does next year either but '22 for sure. I think they ride out Bo. That's just my opinion. AD Green hasn't shown any sack to make me think he would push for it. He hasn't made one move other then holding down the fort. Worst AD we've had in a long time but he gets along well with the student athletes. Like all great CEO's he's great with the staff in the mailroom.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
50801 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 6:39 pm to
quote:

Money is a non-issue.
Auburn has mega-donors who are waiting patiently

So we have been told....right before we were told if you want him gone so bad why don’t you pay it yourself.
Posted by Swoopin
Member since Jun 2011
22045 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

If we are expected to be better then LSU or UT why would it matter if they have openings. That's been the entire argument for getting rid of Gus is that we are the better program or should be with the money we are willing to pay.


What a smartass response. A vacancy no matter who you are is a dice roll of circumstances- who’s available, how they view the opportunity versus how you believe they should, where your ideal candidate is in their job cycle etc.

Besides pure overwhelming $, timing the market to your relative, approximate peers (Be they slightly “better” or “worse” than you) is about the only thing you can do to maximize your odds of a successful replacement. You’re by default a more attractive destination for a guy under the right circumstances.
Posted by CorchJay
Member since Nov 2018
21104 posts
Posted on 12/9/20 at 6:54 pm to
Wasn't a smartass response. It's the expectation of the fanbase. We should be better then LSU and UT. If you don't get that then you aren't paying attention. If you are happy being equal to LSU and/or UT then that puts you 2nd or 3rd each year with an occasional 1st in the west. That's what we have now. So if you are only going for the best and that should be the expectation then you better be willing, able, and do what it takes to get the best here. Hold your nose and drink the medicine that goes with it. But if you are throwing other peoples 30+ million for Gus and staff. Plus the contract for the best available then you better fricking get it right.
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