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re: 2013 Auburn Football Recruiting Thread: Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Enter

Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:18 pm to
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:18 pm to
quote:


A pretty good number of 5 stars wind up flopping horribly, which is one reason it's silly to call them elite


It is not silly. It has been shown many times that the rating services are relatively accurate as a whole and the 5 star guys drastically outperform on a whole as a percentage.
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

And it's silly to say we need that to compete when we just won a national championship with Dyer and Cam being the only 2 5 stars on our entire roster (and Cam was really only a 5 star on rivals, he wasn't even close on the other sites as a high school prospect or juco prospect).

The fact that Bama is recruiting talent out the ying yang and winning championships like crazy doesn't change what we need to compete.

Texas A&M beat Bama and competed just fine in the SEC this year with a roster that was pretty much comparable to ours from a recruiting standpoint (actually much worse from a recruiting stars standpoint).


I disagree again.

First, yeah we won the NC in 2010, but by pulling a lot of games out of our arse late with what may have been the greatest single season by any player at the most important position on the field through which 90% of the offense (which carried us) ran. In addition an offensive line that had been starting together for 3-4 years and an elite runningback.

And we still barely won. If we had had some elite "5 star" talent on defense outside of 1 player, Fairley (who I realize was rated as a 4 star), we may not have had to come from behind in every other game all year.

In addition, if you heard Sumlin on the BCSNCG broadcast, he said they did not have the horses to matchup with bama so they had to find other ways to win. Which they did with an incredible game by JFF and a very fast start. And A&M lost two games this year even with JM at qb. We will see next year how well they do. I doubt they win the SEC.

Point being, yes you can win and compete SOME OF THE TIME with the right mix of pieces including SOME elite talent.

Again, if our goal is to win championships, we need more elite talent and it is not really debatable considering the lay of the land in the SEC right now.

Thanks for the correction on Blakely, I did forget about him. 14-3. And no, we won't get the amount of elite type talent bama has been getting the past few years, no one else is or will. We just need to get back to getting our fair share which will also pull some away from bama. And that is doable. We have been doing it for decades since Pat Dye and pretty much until saban.
This post was edited on 1/19/13 at 11:31 pm
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

Ellitor is saying we sign 28, including the 3 EEs, and I'm going with his number because he follows this more than you and I combined. Other than small, that class looks good to me. Coaches want more and more WRs, RBs, and S.
lol. Don't make me out to be a know it all, cuz I don't. I said the coaches would push for it, not that it definitely would happen I could see the coaches save some spots if they feel some recruits are not quality gets.
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9935 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

It is not silly. It has been shown many times that the rating services are relatively accurate as a whole and the 5 star guys drastically outperform on a whole as a percentage.


The first part is definitely true, high recruiting rankings consistently correlate directly to better overall records. The 5 stars have been shown to outperform recruits as a whole, sure, but not 4 stars in any particular way that I've seen.

But that's my main point, over the past three years we have a better recruiting ranking than LSU on rivals. We were 4th in 2010, 7th in 2011, and 10th in 2012. LSU was 18th and Georgia was 12th in 2012, LSU was 6th and Georgia was 5th in 2011, and LSU was 6th with Georgia being 15th in 2010.

So by Rivals rankings we should have way more talent than Georgia and more than LSU. Given that our top prospects in those years were recruited by almost every team in the SEC, I think it's a sham to say we don't have any talent, unless you just think most of the coaching staffs in the SEC are just terrible evaluators of talent.

Our problem is development, motivation, discipline, and scheme, pure and simple IMO. We have a bit of a talent gap at QB (but so has LSU), and we have a talent gap in our upperclassmen at LB we need to fix. Other than that we have plenty of talent on our roster to compete in the SEC. On paper Bama is the only team that should have more talent than us by any margin.
This post was edited on 1/19/13 at 11:44 pm
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9935 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:42 pm to
quote:

And we still barely won. If we had had some elite "5 star" talent on defense outside of 1 player, Fairley (who I realize was rated as a 4 star), we may not have had to come from behind in every other game all year.


To be fair, if we had some decent coaching on defense we wouldn't have had to come from behind either. We had one of the best defensive lines in the nation that year, and a very solid linebacking core. But our secondary coaching and schemes were freaking terrible.

We have been getting our fair share though, outside of Bama we've recruited as well as anyone in the SEC the past 4 years or so. Bama is consistently in the top 3 recruiting classes though, which gives them a leg up. Luckily Saban can be outschemed, and has been already by our current head coach as an OC.
Posted by WDE24
Member since Oct 2010
54845 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:43 pm to
We have 15 commitments now, with 2-4 of those less than 100%. We aren't getting anywhere close to 13-15 new commitments by signing day unless we take a bunch of Sun Belt players and it has nothing to do with the coaches ”saving” spots, IMO.
Posted by TheSandman
Waffle House
Member since Nov 2010
19515 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:53 pm to
Holy crap guys ain't nobody got time for that

And by that I mean a full page of wall o' texts
Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 1/19/13 at 11:59 pm to
I understand and respect your opinion. In theory, this is how we could get those 13 to 15.

1 of Bryant, Green, Barber
1 of Folston Elder, Ford
Golson
2 or 3 of Stevens, De'Runnya, Walker Taj
1 of Cothren or Adams
2 or 3 of Foster, Hearns, Cunningham
Harding
Walton
The Alexander Brothers
White or another CB

IMO that is very doable.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47645 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 12:19 am to
quote:

The Alexander Brothers

Don't think we're getting them.

quote:

1 of Bryant, Green, Barber

It's likely we don't get any of those.

Posted by ellitor
Member since Sep 2012
14285 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 12:24 am to
If we offer Mackenro we will be in it and coach really wants a workhorse back from high school so if not 1 of those 3 then he may find another.
Posted by Warfarer
Dothan, AL
Member since May 2010
12400 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 1:37 am to
quote:

If we offer Mackenro we will be in it and coach really wants a workhorse back from high school so if not 1 of those 3 then he may find another.



not sure why we haven't offered both yet. Mackenro is good enough to be a career backup and potential starter in a couple years at a position of need and could turn out to be good. Mackensie is pretty much a badass at a position of need. Taking both wouldn't be settling on a package deal, it would be getting two players that are good at a big weakness for us.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47645 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 2:19 am to
quote:

not sure why we haven't offered both yet. Mackenro is good enough to be a career backup and potential starter in a couple years at a position of need and could turn out to be good. Mackensie is pretty much a badass at a position of need. Taking both wouldn't be settling on a package deal, it would be getting two players that are good at a big weakness for us.

BM seems to think we offer soon.
Posted by Warfarer
Dothan, AL
Member since May 2010
12400 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 9:42 am to
quote:

BM seems to think we offer soon.



Unfortunately it might be too late by the time they do. We have the room, we should have been there a few weeks ago.
Posted by SECTiger92
Member since Jul 2012
145 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:07 am to
@JHokanson: BREAKING... Orlando (Fla.) #Rivals250 4-star WR Tony Stevens has switched his commitment from Texas A&M to Auburn. More to come.

Let it begin
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17237 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:17 am to
frick Yeah!
Posted by blzr
Saratoga
Member since Mar 2011
30744 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:22 am to
Nice pickup
Posted by kage
ATL
Member since Feb 2010
4068 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:29 am to
Looks like Dameyune got his first. Now on to Golson.
Posted by parkjas2001
Gustav Fan Club: Consigliere
Member since Feb 2010
45000 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:41 am to
Committed to A&M for 15 days and flips...we shall see if he flips again
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
44268 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:42 am to
About time we got some good recruiting news.
Posted by AUTiger5
Close, but yet so far away
Member since Jul 2011
2602 posts
Posted on 1/20/13 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Committed to A&M for 15 days and flips...we shall see if he flips again


Good point, but I tend to think this sticks. A&M had 10 -- 10! -- WR commits in their class with Stevens. If all those kids sign there, some will never see the field. This makes sense for Stevens and us, and I'll be shocked if some of A&M's other WR commits don't at least look around and possibly go elsewhere come NSD.
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