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re: 12 SEC games left
Posted on 1/21/18 at 11:58 am to beatbammer
Posted on 1/21/18 at 11:58 am to beatbammer
7-5 or 8-4. We win all our home games and get at least 1 on the road vs either OM, Ark or USCe.
1
Posted on 1/21/18 at 12:10 pm to marshallcotiger
I have a feeling we get the win at USCe. They will keep us from scoring a ton but don’t see them scoring enough.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 12:39 pm to AA7
Worst case scenario, how many wins do y'all think we need to squeak into the tourney?
Posted on 1/21/18 at 12:45 pm to Weagle25
Imo 23 wins would have us on the last 4 in/out list. 24 wins and we are in without a doubt.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 12:46 pm to Weagle25
11?
Posted on 1/21/18 at 12:54 pm to Weagle25
23 doubtful, 24 probable, 25 lock..
Posted on 1/21/18 at 1:51 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
23 doubtful, 24 probable, 25 lock..
23 reg season wins would mean we went 11-7 in a difficult conference, and 12-1 OOC. That would get us in.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 1:54 pm to auburnnyc94
quote:
reg season wins
Wasn't the question.. the question was how many wins to get into the big dance.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 1:57 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:Then that question shouldn't have been posed in a thread talking about the regular season
Wasn't the question.. the question was how many wins to get into the big dance.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 1:58 pm to Rig
I didn't pose it..
Posted on 1/21/18 at 2:06 pm to auburnnyc94
quote:
23 reg season wins would mean we went 11-7 in a difficult conference, and 12-1 OOC. That would get us in.
On second thought, you may be right.. it would be close. We might would have to win a tournament game to get to 24. Our OOC schedule was weak.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 2:19 pm to TigerProwl24
Our OOC was weak.. sure.. but we didn't really slip up with it. You don't just read the schedule and decide if a team is good or bad based on it. 12-1 with our schedule should be viewed about the same as Bama going 10-3 with their schedule.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 2:22 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
it would be close.
We would be very, very safely in the tournament with 23W regular season barring some massive embarrassing defeats or fluke auto bid scenario
SEC is projected to get 6-8 teams in teh tournament, no 11-7 team has finished below 6th in the modern SEC
TeamRanks puts 23W including SECT at 95.5% chance of making the tournament
quote:
Our OOC schedule was weak.
It wasn't strong, it wasn't impressive, but it wasn't that weak. RPI has it as a top 100 NCSOS which is good enough
Even the best teams have bad games against inferior teams. Auburn only dropped 1 OOC game
Posted on 1/21/18 at 2:26 pm to marshallcotiger
quote:
Imo 23 wins would have us on the last 4 in/out list
With the love the SEC is getting this year? 23W ons election sunday gets us in easy.
This is an extremely weak P5 year. This year isn't going to have a lot of big bubble contenders it looks like. No Auburn going 11-7 , 23W in considered a top 3-4 conference is plenty good
Posted on 1/21/18 at 2:53 pm to GenesChin
Maybe it's just the battered fan syndrome talking but until we get to 24 I'm going to feel uneasy.
Posted on 1/21/18 at 3:02 pm to marshallcotiger
quote:
Maybe it's just the battered fan syndrome talking but until we get to 24 I'm going to feel uneasy.
Teams don't get left out with 23W in a P5.. with only 1 exception I can find
Now the obvious counterpoint is 2016 USCe, but not only was that a bad SEC year + even worse OOC schedule, that team lost multiple games to sub .500 teams + multiple games to 16-18W no NIT type teams as well
Posted on 1/21/18 at 3:10 pm to GenesChin
quote:
Worst case scenario, how many wins do y'all think we need to squeak into the tourney?
Worst case scenario, winning 23 games would be.. finishing 6-6 in our remaining season games and losing our first SEC tournament game, and being 5-5 in our last ten games. That may not get us in with our OOC schedule..
If you weren't an Auburn fan, it would be hard to name our best OOC win. We understand how big it was for our young guys to beat Dayton at their place but i feel that is our perception.
This post was edited on 1/21/18 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 1/21/18 at 3:18 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
I don't think that gets us in with our OOC schedule..
You can think it won't get us in all you would like to but... it will.
You can sit on pins and needles and stress through the next few games thinking we still have our work cut out for us... But, as for me, I'm gonna enjoy knowing we have built up enough breathing room that winning half of our remaining games gets us into the dance.
Heck, even winning five of our remaining twelve still gives us a good chance.
This post was edited on 1/21/18 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 1/21/18 at 3:22 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
If you weren't an Auburn fan, it would be hard to name our best OOC win
.... and you think this is rare in CBB? Most teams don't have signature OOC wins
quote:
losing our first SEC tournament game, and being 5-5 in our last ten games
You mean a better finish in a better SEC than the safely in 2017 #7 seed USCe that went 22-10 finished their last 9 games only 3-6? That team only had 2 wins all season, including SEC play, over NCAAT teams
Stop being dense, 11-7 in the SEC this year gets any team into the tournament. If Bama goes 11-7, finishes 19-12 they will even make the tournament
This post was edited on 1/21/18 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 1/21/18 at 4:06 pm to GenesChin
Lose one at home. Win one on the road. 6-6. 11-7 and in The tourney
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