If we somehow pull it out Saturday do we get a NY6 game?

Was talking about this with my wife this weekend. I’m taking our son to the bowl game, and I was thought vomiting about where we’d go. Shitty thing is that if go 8-4 we’d probably have been a shoe-in in any other year for the Cotton Bowl, but it’s part of the CFP this year. My scenarios were as follows:

Win out — Citrus or NY6 at large
Lose to Bama, beat Mizzou — Citrus, Outback or Gator
Beat Bama, lose to Mizzou — Outback, Gator or Music City
Lose out — Music City or Liberty

A lot of it will be predicated on what happens with Bama and Georgia. The best scenario for us would be for Bama to win out and then beat an undefeated Georgia team in the SEC Championship Game, thus putting 2 SEC teams in the playoff and bumping the rest of the bowl eligible SEC teams up in the pecking order.

If Bama doesn’t make the CFP, they’ll get the Sugar Bowl. If they make the CFP, Ole Miss likely gets the Sugar. If A&M splits their last 2 games, we’ll have the head-to-head if we go 8-4. If they win out and go 9-3, they probably get a NY6 at large.

State probably loses the Egg Bowl. A&M probably beats LSU, Bama likely beats Auburn (who finishes 7-5 or 6-6). There are 4 East teams currently sitting at 5-5 and scrapping for bowl elibility who are probably fighting over the lower tier bowls like Cheez-It, Birmingham, Gasparilla or Las Vegas.

I’ll probably be completely wrong, so there’s that.

We wouldn’t jump a 2 loss sec team. Would need ole miss to get a third loss in the egg bowl and uga to beat Alabama convincingly. In that scenario we’re clearly the second best team in the sec and a lock for a top tier bowl.

Unless we win our last two games, it’s almost surely going to be either Liberty or Music City.

quote:

---

Unless we win our last two games, it’s almost surely going to be either Liberty or Music City.

---

I think Music City is more likely. 8-4 is too good for the Liberty Bowl.

quote:

---

A&M probably beats LSU

---

I don't think so, actually.

That game is in Death Valley and the last of Orgeron's tenure, his team will be playing out of their minds for him.

Calzada won't be able to shake the blitzes like Jefferson or Young were able to, he'll make mistakes and/or go down much easier. They'll bring the house against him and dare him to beat them with his arm, and he doesn't have it.

quote:

---

State probably loses the Egg Bowl.

---

I wouldn't bet on that either. State is a huge wild card this season and their defense is probably a little better than OM's. It'll be a shootout either way, but this game could go either way further complicating things.

I think Bama either beats UGA in the championship game or is out of the playoffs, with squeak-by wins against UF and LSU and the loss to aTm. They easily could've lost to two mediocre teams (UF and LSU) and lost to one mediocre team in aTm.


Crazy season, but this is what makes college football awesome.