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re: Tua would've transferred if kept on sidelines for last game

Posted on 5/22/18 at 2:33 pm to
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 2:33 pm to
If you really want my opinion, I think Tua was a much better passer than Hurts for the entirety of the season, probably dating back to August. (That might also be true of Mac Wilson.) However, I think that basic freshman issues kept tua from being the starter, particularly things like playbook knowledge, ability to execute pre-snap reads, and mental mistakes.

I also think that those freshman mistakes were easiest to see by bystanders from the stands (and the field) in the form of interceptions, which caused those people to create that narrative. [I use plural here as I have a few insiders, a few online and a few IRL, one of which is a guy who refs for Bama's scrimmages on occasion, which is why I also said "on the field."]

Among my "insiders" throughout the season, the narrative was pretty uniform: Tua is obviously the best passing talent in Tuscaloosa, but plays like a freshman and makes freshman mistakes. They also uniformly commented about taking steps forward in January and particularly bowl practice, Boz included.

And so, what about the above do you have a problem with? Why does the above want you to rail against Tua being called a "turnover machine". Sure, it is a wholesale oversimplification of the situation, but it's not wrong.

(The "you" is directed at anyone who believes Tua was not on the bench for issues related to turnovers or similar.)
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

Are you sure it wasn't Barnett that Boz was calling a "turnover machine"?


Honestly, my usage of "turnover machine" was my own word choice, and not a quote of someone else. If Boz said that about Barnett, it's simply coincidence. I use simplification and hyperbole a lot.

I am positive that I heard from multiple sources that Tua had pick-6 issues in practices and closed scrimmages - not interception issues, pick-6 issues. Barnett was the one 2 years ago who had interception issues in those Saturday scrimmages where the stats were public knowledge.
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6508 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

I think that basic freshman issues kept tua from being the starter, particularly things like playbook knowledge, ability to execute pre-snap reads, and mental mistakes.


From the first time he stepped on the field he could read the defense, before and after the snap, better than Jalen ever has
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6508 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

I think Tua's turnover "problems" in practice were probably greatly exaggerated by certain people who, like I said, have a tendency to find the narrative that fits the story they want to believe. There were other "insiders" saying that Tua had been outperforming Jalen since he stepped on campus.



I would also say that sometimes the "insider" story changes to spin the fact that they weren't really wrong all those times when they said things like Tua was never going to start last season, but that Tua all of a sudden just got so much better during practices after Auburn it changed things.
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 4:56 pm to
My participation in this weeks-long discussion centers on arguing for logic and reality, both past and present, and debating against 2 fundamentally non-logical, and frankly asinine, arguments:

1: Saban played Hurts last year because "he's loyal to players who do things right."

This argument is not based on any objective metric and has no basis in reality as it pertains to Nick Saban. Saban has proven time and time again that he playes the players who give Bama the best chance to win, and nothing else. If playing time was based on "loyalty to kids who do things right," Ronnie Clark would have been our starting RB for he last 2 years and DJ Hall would've never played a fricking down.

This argument is solely argued by folks who do not want to understand and discuss the objective issues of the argument, and simply want to base their opinions on platitudes they could attribute to an honorable man.

Saban has never been "loyal to players who do things the right way" over players who give us a better chance to win. It has never happened and is a false, horseshite narrative.

2) If Tua had been starting (or getting the meaningful snaps) earlier in the season in [X] game, we would have definitively had an [X] better result in said game.

Whether you guys here want to believe Boz or not, it was all over college football that Tua had taken a big step forward during playoff practices and looked really, really good in December and January. Hell, even Herbstriet said it on live TV.

This story can only exist if it is in contrast to what was happening previously, i.e. Tua's play in December and January was different from his play before. Ergo, it is not possible to state based on logic and objective reasoning that the Tua that walked out on the field in the second half against GA would have trotted out on the field in October or November. His development was linear and January Tua did not exist earlier.

Sure, you can be upset about losing to auburn and use hindsight to say that Saban should have changed any number of variables in that game, but you cannot state that those changes would have definitively resulted in an increased likelihood of winning. If Tua had played against auburn, maybe we would have won. OR maybe we would have lost by 30. It's literally unknowable.

Sure, I personally would have loved for Tua to have played against auburn, given that we lost. Hindsight does that. I was sick of how our offense looked and at least we'd have gone down in a hail of offensive gunfire with Tua, but we might have gotten blown out for all I or anyone else here knows.

And so I'm here to argue against those sons-of-bitch, hindsight-armchair-QBs who want to spew garbage about what they know/knew Saban should've done, when their argument is 1) utter horseshite, 2) fundamentally unknowable, 3) totally goes against the season long news narrative about Tua from multiple insiders/journalists, and 3) goes against the GOAT who literally just managed us to a fricking title.

I fart in the direction of anybody who's a part of either group. You're wrong.

Having said that, I welcome any argument or narrative that's different from mine that is based on facts and logical objective reasoning. In the face of that type of competing argument, I'm perfectly willing to concede or respectfully disagree with a good argument.

The simplest explanation based on the preponderance of evidence is that Saban is risk averse, and in his mind, playing Tua for much of last year deceased our chances of winning based on criteria that he deems important. I have explained my attempts at understanding his reasoning, most of which centers on turnovers and increased mental errors from true freshman. This is a solid argument.

The above 2 arguments of other folks are weapons-grade bolognium. Complete. Horse. shite.



Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

he could read the defense, before and after the snap, better than Jalen ever has


After the snap, I wholeheartedly agree and it isn't even close.

Before the snap, I completely disagree, and I don't see how you can argue it. Please try.

Remember that you are arguing that Tua, the guy who couldn't get the signals correct in the title game and ran a different play than everyone else resulting in a bad pick, was better pre-snap. You will also have to show that Tua was given play calls that were Run-Pass pre-snap options and that he made the right calls at a higher percentage than Jalen, and well as pre-snap line shifts and the like.

I'm looking forward to your argument.
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

Tua was never going to start last season


Are you guys basing your insider info solely on Boz? Is that why you're arguing?

I have a small handful of folks I get info from, and all of them said that Tua was uber-talented but prone to freshman mistakes. The story of him taking the step forward late in the season was literally national news.

Be mad at Boz if you want, but my info is not based solely on him.
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6508 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

It's literally unknowable.


Well hell. Who can debate that.
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

quote:
It's literally unknowable.


Well hell. Who can debate that.


That's the point. There are people on this forum who have been saying recently that they know/knew a fundamentally unknowable thing, and that they know/knew better than Saban. I believe those people to be bad for CFB and bad for the Alabama fanbase.

Discuss and critique the coach or anyone else. They are not perfect. But don't purport yourself to possess knowledge that requires trans-temporal and trans-dimensional omnipresence.
Posted by John Milner
Member since Jan 2015
6508 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:51 pm to
quote:

I believe those people to be bad for CFB and bad for the Alabama fanbase.


I believe it's too important to be left to the peons. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought.

and next thing you know they'll be after our precious bodily fluids
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 5:55 pm
Posted by CAbamafan
Member since Dec 2017
1167 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

There were other "insiders" saying that Tua had been outperforming Jalen since he stepped on campus.

Tua outperformed Jalen in his first spring game.

I went to the Vanderbilt game, and even then, our offense clearly came to life with Tua on the field, not to mention his unbelievable TD pass.

What prevatt fails to acknowledge is that Saban CAN make mistakes, and he clearly made some costly ones last season. He pulled it out in the end because he's the GOAT, but he fricked up. He's not infallible
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 5:56 pm
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

What prevatt fails to acknowledge is that Saban CAN make mistakes, and he clearly made some costly ones last season. He pulled it out in the end because he's the GOAT, but he fricked up. He's not infallible


Of course Saban can make mistakes. It's easily arguable, IMO, that not starting Tua in January was a mistake. I would have also inserted Tua in the 2nd quarter against Ga if it was me, although I get the argument for waiting till halftime.

I think that arguing that Saban was making mistakes by not starting Tua in September or October is folly and illogical based on the evidence.

I think the earliest you could argue that Saban was definitely making a mistake by not starting Tua would be mid/late November at the earliest. Arguing for anything beforehand simply flies in the face of the preponderance of evidence coming out of camp, and I say that with confidence based on numerous non-Boz reports.

Tua simply played/practiced like a freshman until November. A super talented freshman sure, but with lots of mistakes. Any insinuation otherwise its rewriting history,I am confident the GOAT coach was making the right call for most of the season.

However, if it had been me, I would have inserted Tua as the starter much earlier than Saban. But I might have lost us of some games. I was just sick of the offense under Hurts. It was painfully boring, disappointing, and ineffective.

Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

he clearly made some costly ones last season


Alright, I'll bite.

Please detail what you believe to be the "some costly [mistakes]" that Saban made last season. The mistakes have to have "cost" bama something significant, given your use of the word "costly". They must also number at least 3, as your use of the plural "ones" denotes more than 1 and your use of "some" coloquially indicates more than 2. So lets call it at least 3.

And I'll spot you one. I'll concede, for the sake of the discussion, that not playing Tua (during and before auburn) cost us the auburn game. There's one.

And so what are at least 2 more "costly mistakes" that Saban made last season.

I look forward to your response.

EDIT: Sorry, one more thing. For it to be a "mistake", it must be a situation where a reasonable person would have or should have made a different decision at the time based on the information available at the time, meaning that's it's logical and justifiable with objective evidence that the decision was poor in the moment. No hindsight allowed.
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 8:59 pm
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
18025 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 2:51 am to
quote:

My participation in this weeks-long discussion centers on arguing for logic and reality, both past and present, and debating against 2 fundamentally non-logical, and frankly asinine, arguments:


Unfortunately you've been using hyperbole and treating hearsay as fact. The "insiders" aren't coaches who spend all 20 hours on the field with the team, thus their info is heavily relied upon others. Some are higher up the "telephone" chain, some may even see some practices or scrimmages the public isn't allowed. None are batting 1.000, or close to it, in accurate info.
Posted by OldPete
Georgia
Member since Oct 2013
2804 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:09 am to
quote:

Tua outperformed Jalen in his first spring game.

Tua was playing against the second string defense (he also threw two INTs, one of 'em a pick-6) while Jalen was playing against the ones...that's a pretty big difference, don't you think? Not to mention, Hurts had a good game himself that day, throwing for 300+ yards against our first string D...

quote:

I went to the Vanderbilt game, and even then, our offense clearly came to life with Tua on the field, not to mention his unbelievable TD pass.

True...but Tua came in during the 3rd Quarter when Bama was already up 38-0 and Vandy was beaten down...another pretty big difference, don't you think?

Look, by almost any measure, Tua looks to be a better QB...but your examples aren't equal comparisons by any stretch and I can't blame Saban for not making a switch based on those.

For myself, I thought Hurts had turned a corner after the LSU and, especially, the MSU games...but after watching the Iron Bowl, I came to the conclusion that I was wrong...watching our offense in the Clemson game and the first half against UGA only confirmed it in my mind...

Not many of us have access to the practices nor inside sources, so we don't know much of what went on behind the scenes. Saban has a pretty good track record of choosing his QBs in the past (AJ over P.Sims, B.Sims over Coker, Coker over Bateman, Jalen over Barnett). There had to be some reason Jalen was starting other than just Saban screwing up, so I'm inclined to agree with prevatt...
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 9:24 am
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
18025 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Tua was playing against the second string defense (he also threw two INTs, one of 'em a pick-6) while Jalen was playing against the ones...that's a pretty big difference, don't you think?

If it were only factually correct. Tua only threw the 1 int. I checked al.com, b/r, and sports illustrated online.
quote:

True...but Tua came in during the 3rd Quarter when Bama was already up 38-0

9-17 for 78 yards and no scores. That's hot, wet garbage... especially in an arse whooping.
Posted by OldPete
Georgia
Member since Oct 2013
2804 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:47 am to
quote:

If it were only factually correct. Tua only threw the 1 int. I checked al.com, b/r, and sports illustrated online.

You're right, I misread that...on b/r, it said he nearly had another pass intercepted and I missed the 'nearly'...

quote:

9-17 for 78 yards and no scores. That's hot, wet garbage...especially in an arse whooping.

Dude it means much less in an arse whooping...they were winning 38-0 when he left the game...Hurts led the offense to 6 scores in the first half and first drive of the second half...four of the drives were 70+ yards or more...in games like that, I couldn't care less what his passing stats are...

Greg McElroy had several games with similar type stats in games that Bama won (but not by that big a margin)...if you go back a many years, Jay Barker had even more...never heard either of them described as 'hot garbage'...

I can understand complaining 'bout a QB in a loss or close win...but complaining 'bout one in a 59 point blowout I just don't get...
Posted by Sauron
Birmingham
Member since Dec 2015
996 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:48 am to
quote:

9-17 for 78 yards and no scores. That's hot, wet garbage... especially in an arse whooping.


Four of those missed throws were terrible. Just no-excuse, flat-out bad.

One was tipped at the line of scrimmage.

Two were complete drops by receivers -- one by Ridley in the end zone, and one by Scarborough in the flat. Ridley's would have been a TD, and Scarborough's probably would have.

The other miss was a slight overthrow to Foster (I think) in the end zone. Would've been a long TD if completed.

I don't think that game is a good example of Hurts' inability to pass successfully. He could have been better, sure, but he wasn't "hot, wet garbage."

What that game DID illustrate is how much better Tua is than Jalen in some areas: quicker decisions, getting the ball out of his hands, and keeping his eyes downfield when his protection breaks down. His ability to do these things, along with his incredible accuracy, are what sets him apart from Hurts ... and, really, almost any other college QB.
Posted by prevatt33
Member since Dec 2011
2837 posts
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:49 am to
quote:

treating hearsay as fact


While I agree that getting info from "insiders" is hearsay and should always be taken with a grain of salt, when the info from 3 or 4 unrelated sources is pretty similar, I think it takes on a bit more of a "reliable" characteristic.
Posted by Panthers4life
Huntsville
Member since Nov 2017
4364 posts
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:57 pm to
Prevatt is taking advantage of this since Boz hasn't been around lately... SMH
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