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re: Tide Hoops | Recruiting
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:59 pm to Temple of the Dog
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:59 pm to Temple of the Dog
quote:
We ran clock down until the last two threes. We do sometimes not stop running fast though. We were better yesterday.
Here are all the possessions after the under 4 timeout, which we were up 11 at the break or up 9 after Brea sank the FTs out of the timeout.
14 sec - Nelson layup
17 sec - Nelson fouled, gets FTs
16 sec - Sears fouled, gets FTs
4 sec - Sears TO on long pass
4 sec - Sears 3 pointer
8 sec - YoungB 3 pointer
28 sec - Cliff TO
6 sec - Cliff dunk
Last possession to end game (15 sec)
We literally didn’t have a possession over 17 seconds until there was less than 1 min to go in the game despite us having a 7-11 point lead that whole time. Excluding the last possession, half of our possessions after the under 4 timeout were 8 seconds or less, all while we had a big lead.
Oats is an analytics guy, and the analytics show that once the ratio of points in the lead to time left on the clock gets to a certain ratio, the highest probability of winning the game becomes reducing the number of possessions the other team gets (while still leaving yourself enough time to get a decent shot on offense). We can debate what that ratio is with a given amount of time left, but I guarantee you it isn’t having 4 possessions of 8 seconds or less when up double digits heading into the under 4 timeout (not to mention up 9 with the ball and under 2:15 to play). Giving the other team that many chances only increases their statistical probability of making an epic comeback (note: it’s still small, but why increase it from like 0.5% to 1.5%…play enough games, and that’s an additional late game collapse every 4-5 years…no thanks).
This post was edited on 2/23/25 at 7:06 pm
2
Posted on 2/23/25 at 7:06 pm to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
14 sec - Nelson layup
17 sec - Nelson fouled, gets FTs
16 sec - Sears fouled, gets FTs
These were good possessions. We ran clock and didn't attempt a shot until it was a great look or someone got fouled moving the ball. Those weren't forced shots they were only taken because they were 95%+ we're going to score or get fouled and we still ran 17 seconds off the clock. The turnover was a bad possession and I wasn't a fan of Sears 3. But once he made that it was over.
This post was edited on 2/23/25 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 2/23/25 at 7:48 pm to BamaBravesPackers
Right or wrong, my guess at that point is Oats is still thinking to score to make the margin greater for efficiency purposes
Posted on 2/23/25 at 8:48 pm to Bryant91092
Posted on 2/23/25 at 8:52 pm to Alabama_Fan
Also today
quote:
Posted on 2/23/25 at 9:01 pm to Alabama_Fan
quote:
Cole Cubelic@colecubelic·23h.
@AlabamaMBB G Mark Sears is the 1st player in DI this season with back to back 30-point games...
both against AP-ranked teams.
He's the 2nd @SEC player to do it in last 20 seasons.
Posted on 2/23/25 at 9:56 pm to Bryant91092
quote:
Right or wrong, my guess at that point is Oats is still thinking to score to make the margin greater for efficiency purposes
Which is fine in regular season games if he wants to play that way, but it’s hard to be good at late game situations in the NCAAT when you haven’t played that way all year. I will say, it’s important to not play the “slow it down” game too early, as many times you see a team lose rhythm despite not being close enough to the end of the game to risk giving up momentum. There’s a balance, but we definitely took added risk in the KY game and Sears’ pass was trying to help Cliff get his double/double (according to Oats’). I guess if you’re going to do something stupid, at least do it trying to help someone else.
Posted on 2/23/25 at 10:29 pm to BamaBravesPackers
I agree that it frustrates me regularly to see us give life to teams late with quick possessions. Arkansas was the one I immediately thought of. I would prefer what we do to shutting it down too early like a lot of teams do but at a point in games where math is math then you are playing with fire
Posted on 2/24/25 at 7:06 am to Temple of the Dog
If any of you are gamers with an itch to play college basketball a guy created 36 top ncaa teams and a season/rules mod to make nba2k25 like college. I played it last night and it was very fun. I turned the ball over a lot so it’s also realistic. DAREALDROC is the season mod you’ll search in the 2k menu if you’re interested
Posted on 2/24/25 at 1:36 pm to BamaBravesPackers
I get wanting to help Cliff but question where his head was even being aware of the double double much less risking the outcome of a game when it was still in doubt. Does he really keep up with individual stats instead of having his head in the game?
Posted on 2/24/25 at 1:45 pm to Alabama_Fan
quote:
Cole Cubelic@colecubelic·23h.
@AlabamaMBB G Mark Sears is the 1st player in DI this season with back to back 30-point games...
both against AP-ranked teams.
He's the 2nd @SEC player to do it in last 20 seasons.
For a 6-1 guard to do that in the best conference in the country and only take 17 and 20 shots respectively is insane. He's one of the most efficient guards I've ever seen.
Posted on 2/24/25 at 2:41 pm to BamaBravesPackers
You've got to take into account just how bad we are at working clock and getting shots late in the shot clock. 1) We are turnover prone, so holding the ball longer just increases the chances we don't get a shot at all and 2) our dribble drive and kick game doesn't set up well for late shot clock opportunities. I have no inside info, but my guess is that Nate wants the guys taking the first good look they get even when the "book" says hold it and work the clock.
Posted on 2/24/25 at 3:33 pm to ArabianKnight
quote:
You've got to take into account just how bad we are at working clock and getting shots late in the shot clock. 1) We are turnover prone, so holding the ball longer just increases the chances we don't get a shot at all and 2) our dribble drive and kick game doesn't set up well for late shot clock opportunities. I have no inside info, but my guess is that Nate wants the guys taking the first good look they get even when the "book" says hold it and work the clock.
Exactly. His "analytics" say to him "I'd rather take 5 good shots at 10-15 seconds than 3 bad ones at 25 seconds."
(Especially considering our bad shots at the end of the shot clock are usually blocked layups that set up great run out opportunities for layups or open 3s.)
It's not the conventional wisdom but it's not that it hasn't worked either. The blown leads (at all points of the game) are not that we're leaving too much time on the shot clock but being sloppy with the ball and not getting a good look every possession.
It may be different if he had a Colin Sexton type PG that's going to get to the rim every time late in the clock and usually convert. But, our best offense is spot up shooters that need spacing to get to the rim.
If Philon sticks around another season, he could be that type player but he's still a little too erratic now.
Posted on 2/24/25 at 3:42 pm to wm72
Another 8pm game coming up, last one I wish I would have went to sleep for
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:15 pm to wm72
quote:
If Philon sticks around another season, he could be that type player but he's still a little too erratic now.
He’s still mostly being mocked in the 1st round but has been sliding.
If he slides out of the 1st and decides to return someone is going to throw a giant NiL bag at him.
Posted on 2/24/25 at 4:54 pm to wm72
quote:
Exactly. His "analytics" say to him "I'd rather take 5 good shots at 10-15 seconds than 3 bad ones at 25 seconds."
(Especially considering our bad shots at the end of the shot clock are usually blocked layups that set up great run out opportunities for layups or open 3s.)
It's not the conventional wisdom but it's not that it hasn't worked either. The blown leads (at all points of the game) are not that we're leaving too much time on the shot clock but being sloppy with the ball and not getting a good look every possession.
Yea, I think this is basically it. We still tend to sometimes go too fast in terms of clock, but I thought Saturday we did it about as well as we could.
Once the lead was 9 with 3ish minutes left, all of our possessions were either wide open looks or drives to the rim where there was a 90% chance we were going to get fouled or make a layup. And we ran them differently than normal game possessions - we passed up some solid looks that weren't wide open within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock and ran the clock to 15-20 seconds before taking a shot.
I think Nate does know that the more we dribble around, especially if we are trying to do something unnatural (slow down), the more likely we are for a live ball turnover or at best a terrible shot at the buzzer. Might as well aggressively run our stuff but with the caveat that we only take the highest of quality of shot if it is there.
Posted on 2/24/25 at 6:31 pm to wm72
I understand why people are saying to run your typical offense late in the game, but I think they are still missing the point and it goes back to my ratio comment.
I hope we all agree that if the game is tied or we have a lead and there is almost no difference in the shot clock to game clock, you don’t run your typical offense and look for the best shot (shooting early or TO is literally the only way you lose in regulation in that case if the other team doesn’t foul). In no way should you ever shoot the ball with more than about 4 seconds (i.e. enough to get O-board put back but not enough for them to do anything if they catch it with 2 seconds).
From there, you just work backwards. If you’re up 4 with 40-50 seconds, same thing. The added 10-15 seconds off the clock is worth way more than a quality look (unless it’s literally a wide open dunk). 9 with 2:14, is clearly under the ratio IMO…but others may disagree. Either way, Sears’ long pass wasn’t just running our offense or taking a wide open look with 90% chance of success. Even the 2 threes we hit were at best 40-50% chances while running less than 8 seconds off the clock…Sears and Youngblood had both missed multiple wide open 3s earlier in the game (Sears was 2-7 from 3 at that point and Chris was 2-4 prior to his make). It ultimately worked out, but there’s a reason 95% of the best basketball coaches in history would have been screaming to slow it down and run clock.
I hope we all agree that if the game is tied or we have a lead and there is almost no difference in the shot clock to game clock, you don’t run your typical offense and look for the best shot (shooting early or TO is literally the only way you lose in regulation in that case if the other team doesn’t foul). In no way should you ever shoot the ball with more than about 4 seconds (i.e. enough to get O-board put back but not enough for them to do anything if they catch it with 2 seconds).
From there, you just work backwards. If you’re up 4 with 40-50 seconds, same thing. The added 10-15 seconds off the clock is worth way more than a quality look (unless it’s literally a wide open dunk). 9 with 2:14, is clearly under the ratio IMO…but others may disagree. Either way, Sears’ long pass wasn’t just running our offense or taking a wide open look with 90% chance of success. Even the 2 threes we hit were at best 40-50% chances while running less than 8 seconds off the clock…Sears and Youngblood had both missed multiple wide open 3s earlier in the game (Sears was 2-7 from 3 at that point and Chris was 2-4 prior to his make). It ultimately worked out, but there’s a reason 95% of the best basketball coaches in history would have been screaming to slow it down and run clock.
This post was edited on 2/24/25 at 6:41 pm
Posted on 2/24/25 at 7:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Nate does know that the more we dribble around, especially if we are trying to do something unnatural (slow down), the more likely we are for a live ball turnover or at best a terrible shot at the buzzer. Might as well aggressively run our stuff but with the caveat that we only take the highest of quality of shot if it is there.
Agreed. We dont have a Brandon Miller who can just go get his shot off on anybody. Sears aint that guy. We have all seen him in end of the half situations. Oats would rather run our normal offense. Who do you trust to just run iso and get a bucket at the end of the clock?
Posted on 2/24/25 at 7:57 pm to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
Even the 2 threes we hit were at best 40-50% chances while running less than 8 seconds off the clock…Sears and Youngblood had both missed multiple wide open 3s earlier in the game
Scared money dont make money.
Shooters shoot.
YOLO.
Leeeeroyyyyyyy Jjjjenkins!!!
Posted on 2/24/25 at 8:14 pm to SECSolomonGrundy
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