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CFB Nerds Alabama Vs LSU

Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:18 pm
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
16985 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:18 pm
TLDR

Daniel picks LSU

Josh Picks Bama

Their model has it almost completely even at 33.2 and 33.8 Bama.

LINK


SoG you should check out their model.

LINK
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83445 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:34 pm to
I don’t care how bad LSU’s defense is, I MUCH rather have the far greater offense in this matchup.

If LSU plays a decent game defensively I think we get hammered. And I’m sure plenty times our own offense will stop itself.

If we could run the ball better I’d be a little more optimistic.

Roll Tide but man, I don’t see this ending well for us.
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
24461 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I don’t care how bad LSU’s defense is, I MUCH rather have the far greater offense in this matchup.


While I generally agree, the gap between their offense and our defense is waaaaaay smaller than the gap between our offense and their defense. Statistically this is probably the worst power 5 defense we’ve faced. Our offense is flawed but is overall decently effective with a high floor
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 12:50 pm
Posted by bamabaum
Montgomery, AL
Member since Jul 2014
1220 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:51 pm to
I think Coach Saban has had this game circled for a year. He's had 2 weeks to scheme for their offense, revenge game in T-Town, I like our chances.
Posted by Sl0thstronautEsq
Antarctica
Member since Aug 2018
9254 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Statistically this is probably the worst power 5 defense we’ve faced.


While this may be true, it feels like they've been playing much better since the Ole Miss game. I realize they haven't faced great offenses since then, but I still think their defense has been playing much better. It seems like they got better once they moved Perkins back outside and brought in Saban's old secret weapon, Pete Jenkins.
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
16985 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:18 pm to
It’s not that they haven’t improved they don’t have the guys. They are all hurt. The guys playing corner, aren’t corners.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19677 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

While this may be true, it feels like they've been playing much better since the Ole Miss game
they have played 3 games since then. Mizzou hung 39 on them, and the other 2 were Auburn and Army, 2 absolute dog shite offense. Playing Auburn and Army back to back is going to make any team look like they improved on defense whether they did or not
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21674 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

the gap between their offense and our defense is waaaaaay smaller than the gap between our offense and their defense


I wish I believed that. I've watched our offense struggle against air. LSU is going to score. We can't go three and out repeatedly and hope to win with a couple bombs.

My heart says the good guys win, but I have zero confidence.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19677 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

If we could run the ball better I’d be a little more optimistic.
bet we look better running the ball against LSU, they are terrible run defense. We actually run the ball fine with the rbs, not spectacular but solid. It's been the sacks dragging us down
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 1:25 pm
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
24461 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

I wish I believed that. I've watched our offense struggle against air.


Gotta disagree. The only bad defense Milroe has faced since Middle Tennessee was Mississippi State. Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Tennessee all fit somewhere in the pretty good to good range
Posted by JIB
Member since Sep 2013
808 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

While this may be true, it feels like they've been playing much better since the Ole Miss game. I realize they haven't faced great offenses since then, but I still think their defense has been playing much better. It seems like they got better once they moved Perkins back outside and brought in Saban's old secret weapon, Pete Jenkins.



They gave up 527 yards and 39 points to Mizzou on the road and then got AU and Army at home and looked much better.
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21674 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Gotta disagree. The only bad defense Milroe has faced since Middle Tennessee was Mississippi State. Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Tennessee all fit somewhere in the pretty good to good range


Just don't be shocked if we have a lot more trouble moving the ball on LSU than we should.
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
16985 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 2:55 pm to
This will be a frustrating game for both fan bases.
Posted by Marktastic86
Pismo Beach, CA
Member since Dec 2020
12522 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Just don't be shocked if we have a lot more trouble moving the ball on LSU than we should.

I'm seeing this prediction more than I thought I would, but not seeing anything to really back it up.
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21674 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

but not seeing anything to really back it up.


Have you seen our, at best, inconsistent, and, at worst, shitty offense? That, along with Bama being LSU's superbowl, AND they have good athletes on defense even if they haven't shown it is enough to make this game a big unknown.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
11143 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

They gave up 527 yards and 39 points to Mizzou

Even including the USF game, Missouri has the closest FEI offense to ours so they are a pretty good proxy for how we might perform. LSU also gives up a ton of big plays as well which might help us even if we struggle to grind out 6-7 minute drives.

That said no one in the country knows Tommy Rees better than Brian Kelly so I’m concerned they might be far more attuned to our tendencies and signals than other teams have been. To be blunt I hope we changed our signs over the bye week.

I think itll be a 35-38 kind of game which will break on a key turnover/stop. If we come out slow I don’t think we can catchup like we did against Tennessee.
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 3:23 pm
Posted by Marktastic86
Pismo Beach, CA
Member since Dec 2020
12522 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Have you seen our, at best, inconsistent, and, at worst, shitty offense?

I have, and have also seen LSU's defense. If Milroe can build on that second half vs UT and Bama can run the ball efficiently (90% sure our backs will have one of their best games of the season,) there's no reason why the offense can't dominate given the opportunity. Giving the O virtually no shot but giving LSU's terrible D the benefit of the doubt because... reasons? Doesn't make much sense to me.
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21674 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

Giving the O virtually no shot but giving LSU's terrible D the benefit of the doubt because.


Now you're just being hyperbolic. I didn't do either. I've said I "think" Bama wins. But, I'm also not blind and I've seen our offense look like hammered dog shite for long stretches at a time this year.

We're just as likely to see LSU's defense get it together as we are Bama's offense. The only difference is what you WANT to happen.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83445 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 4:31 pm to
quote:

While I generally agree, the gap between their offense and our defense is waaaaaay smaller than the gap between our offense and their defense. Statistically this is probably the worst power 5 defense we’ve faced. Our offense is flawed but is overall decently effective with a high floor
I hear you.

I just don’t think our offense is quite good enough to take advantage of LSU’s horrible defense.

LSU’s defense won’t even have to stop us sometimes. This offense stops itself and doesn’t do anything consistently to where they can lean on one thing to hammer this LSU defense.

I think it’s a realt bad matchup for Alabama. They’re playing against an offense so good that in today’s game, it’s hard to even slow it down. And our offense, that stops itself, is going against a defense with literally nothing to lose. If LSU can get 4 stops and Alabama stops itself a couple times we’re really limiting how many points we can score.

I would MUCH rather face an LSU team with a god mode defense and arse offense and play first to 17 wins. I think this is as bad a matchup as we could have.
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83445 posts
Posted on 10/31/23 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

It’s not that they haven’t improved they don’t have the guys. They are all hurt. The guys playing corner, aren’t corners.
I just don’t think we take advantage of it.

I’d be confident as hell if we could run the ball really well. But we can’t. And we get in our own way on offense. And we’ve seen, even with how good the defense is, it still have long stretches where it can’t stop a thing.

I promise I won’t beat y’all over the head with this all week, but I think we’re headed for a beating.
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