Bama's path to the playoff, in 4 very simple steps

Mandatory

1. Alabama defeats Auburn

It goes without saying, but it's important to stress it. It will not be an easy game. Auburn always plays WAY over their heads when the game is @Auburn. They've won 2 of the last 3 there, even when we've had the better team on paper and been the favorite.

2. LSU defeats Georgia in SEC Championship game

In a weird twist of fate, we have to pull for LSU here. Georgia winning would put them into the playoffs and LSU would not fall below us. In other words, LSU can eliminate UGA, but UGA cannot eliminate LSU.

Not mandatory, but extremely helpful

3. Oregon defeats Utah in PAC12 Championship Game

Utah is directly behind us and the PAC12 hasn't gotten a team in the playoffs in several years. The media and pundits have been talking them up and they are playing very well right now. There is a strong possibility that even if #1 and #2 happen, that Utah would jump us for the 4th seed. A Utah loss to Oregon eliminates that threat.

4. Oklahoma loses to either @Oklahoma State or to Baylor in Big12 Championship game

The only other potential jumpee candidate is Oklahoma. I think they are less of a threat to jump us but it's still non-zero. Them losing a game to fully eliminate them would of course be helpful.


So there it is. #1 and #2 absolutely must happen. #3 and #4 are also extremely helpful. If all 4 happen we are 100% in.