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re: Make a case for Hutson Mason
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:28 am to deeprig9
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:28 am to deeprig9
David Greene: 2508 yds 58.5% completed, 8.4 YPA, 20 TDs to 4 INTs
DJ Shockley: 2588 yds, 55.8% completed, 8.3 YPA, 24 TDs to 5 INTs
Joe Cox: 2584 yds, 55.9% completed, 7.8 YPA, 24 TDs to 15 INTs
Aaron Murray: 3075 yds, 64.8% completed, 8.9 YPA, 26 TDs to 9 INTs
***These are the QBs who started in their 5th year in the program under Richt. Note that Murray missed 2 and a half games, while Shockley missed 1 and a half. Also, Shockley and Greene played 1 fewer regular season game than Mason will play.
Combining the per game averages of each of the four over a 14 game season for Mason (assuming we win the East) would give you:
3150 yds, 59% completed, 8.35 YPA, 28 TDs and 9 INTs
This doesn't even take into account our ridiculous talent at WR and RB in 2014. This treats Israel Troupe and Washaun Ealey the same as it treats Malcolm Mitchell and Todd Gurley.
Still, I'd expect Mason's numbers to be somewhere around that range. The only remaining question is who will have better numbers? tRant seems to have discounted Marshall as a possibility (for purposes of this exercise), while (in this hypothetical) Mason would have the upper hand on any QBs in the East (winning the East).
So it all boils down to Hutson Mason v Bo Wallace/Dak Prescott/random new starter at Bama, aTm, or LSU? I'd rather have Hutson under Bobo and Richt's tutelage than any of the other situations.
ETA: We definitely throw for more yards and TDs at a higher completion percentage under Bobo (2006-present)than we did under Richt (2001-2005), so it wouldn't surprise me to see those numbers even a little higher than the projected. Dak won't come close to touching those numbers in that putrid offense. Neither will Jennings at LSU. Coker might, but I doubt it. That leaves the new aTm QB (who knows?) and Bo Wallace. Ole Miss fans don't even think Bo Wallace is good.
DJ Shockley: 2588 yds, 55.8% completed, 8.3 YPA, 24 TDs to 5 INTs
Joe Cox: 2584 yds, 55.9% completed, 7.8 YPA, 24 TDs to 15 INTs
Aaron Murray: 3075 yds, 64.8% completed, 8.9 YPA, 26 TDs to 9 INTs
***These are the QBs who started in their 5th year in the program under Richt. Note that Murray missed 2 and a half games, while Shockley missed 1 and a half. Also, Shockley and Greene played 1 fewer regular season game than Mason will play.
Combining the per game averages of each of the four over a 14 game season for Mason (assuming we win the East) would give you:
3150 yds, 59% completed, 8.35 YPA, 28 TDs and 9 INTs
This doesn't even take into account our ridiculous talent at WR and RB in 2014. This treats Israel Troupe and Washaun Ealey the same as it treats Malcolm Mitchell and Todd Gurley.
Still, I'd expect Mason's numbers to be somewhere around that range. The only remaining question is who will have better numbers? tRant seems to have discounted Marshall as a possibility (for purposes of this exercise), while (in this hypothetical) Mason would have the upper hand on any QBs in the East (winning the East).
So it all boils down to Hutson Mason v Bo Wallace/Dak Prescott/random new starter at Bama, aTm, or LSU? I'd rather have Hutson under Bobo and Richt's tutelage than any of the other situations.
ETA: We definitely throw for more yards and TDs at a higher completion percentage under Bobo (2006-present)than we did under Richt (2001-2005), so it wouldn't surprise me to see those numbers even a little higher than the projected. Dak won't come close to touching those numbers in that putrid offense. Neither will Jennings at LSU. Coker might, but I doubt it. That leaves the new aTm QB (who knows?) and Bo Wallace. Ole Miss fans don't even think Bo Wallace is good.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 9:41 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:29 am to deeprig9
Mason showed flashes of being a good QB last year, particularly in the second half against GT. He hit a number of intermediate throws (15-25 yards downfield) with nice touch. If he can consistently stick those throws then I think he will end up a lot better than most of us have predicted. He also showed flahses of being a mediocre QB and often seemed to feel a pass rush that wasn't quite there yet.
I'd say the only area that Mason appears to be significantly better than Murray is in the screen game. Mason throws the perfect screen which will be big for us this year. Our RBs will end up with a lot of catches this year if Mason stays the QB. I could see him being all SEC but only because of the weak SEC QB crop as well as the fact that we have a very good staff/system when it comes to QB development/production.
I'd say the only area that Mason appears to be significantly better than Murray is in the screen game. Mason throws the perfect screen which will be big for us this year. Our RBs will end up with a lot of catches this year if Mason stays the QB. I could see him being all SEC but only because of the weak SEC QB crop as well as the fact that we have a very good staff/system when it comes to QB development/production.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 9:31 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:00 am to Fats
quote:
he will end up a lot better than most of us have predicted
Mason will be fine. Over 3000, 30tds, 7ints.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:07 am to Fats
Now go bump that topic on the rant and lay it all out for them.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:09 am to deeprig9
I honestly think it would be a heck of a lot tougher to make a case for someone other than Hutson Mason.
Starting Mason next year is about as close to a coaching no-brainer as you can get.
Starting Mason next year is about as close to a coaching no-brainer as you can get.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 10:11 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:11 am to GoldenDawg
Exactly, onward to the rant, they need to be educated.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:17 am to deeprig9
quote:
Exactly, onward to the rant, they need to be educated.
Oh heck no. I would never begin to undertake such an impossible and thankless task doomed to utter failure.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:36 am to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
Mason will be fine. Over 3000, 30tds, 7ints.
I bet he throws more ints than that, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 3500 yards and 25 TD's.
He's going to be a dink-n-dunk short pass QB because you can tell he's afraid to stand in the pocket for too long. He has a nice deep pass, but if he waits for routes to get deep and in the process takes some hits, he's going to shorten his game.
Good news is he can, because we have RB's who can run screens, FB's that can catch dump passes, TE's who can dominate the seams, and WR's/slot receivers who can catch the ball over LB's and in the flats, and all of them are excellent in space and can get YAC out the wazoo.
I think we'll run a lot in the redzone though, so his TD's might be a lower ratio compared to yards.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:55 am to BeefDawg
quote:
I bet he throws more ints than that
He very well could. I like his touch and I like that he throws a catchable ball. He doesn't try to zip it into double coverage. Most here will say it's because he can't but during the spring game he threw a few with some speed. He seems smart with where he throws it.
I think Conley and Bennett going to have great seasons. They both take those short ones over the middle and Conley in particular seems to be able to make the best of it after the catch.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 11:32 am to GoldenDawg
quote:
Starting Mason next year is about as close to a coaching no-brainer as you can get.
I agree with this.. this real fun starts later
Posted on 2/25/14 at 12:41 pm to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
Mason will be fine. Over 3000, 30tds, 7ints.
quote:
Mason will be fine. Over 3000, 30tds, 7ints.
I like Mason as much as the next guy but I can't see this happening. I think he may just reach or be right below the 3000 yd barrier but I doubt he throws more than 22 TDs and I think he easily throws double digit ints. I mean before Murray the most TDs any UGA QB had thrown was Stafford, Cox and I think Greene at 24/25 and we expect Mason to just loft 30 like it's nothing?
Just for reference I wanna post our starting QB stats by season for the Richt era and why I personally think our expectations because of the Murray era are too high. Kind of like what Menlo did but I have a different idea.
Murray:
2013 (Injured vs UK): 225/347 3075 yds 26 TD 9 INT
2012: 249/386 3893 yds 36 TD 10 INT
2011: 238/403 3149 yds 35 TD 14 INT
2010: 209/342 3049 yds 24 TD 8 INT
Cox:
2009: 185/331 2584 yds 24 TD 15 INT
Stafford:
2008: 235/383 3459 yds 25 TD 10 INT
2007: 194/348 2523 yds 19 TD 10 INT
2006: (three starters, not counting this year)
Shockley:
2005: 173/310 2588 yds 24 TD 5 INT
Greene:
2004: 175/299 2508 yds 20 TD 4 INT
2003: 264/438 3307 yds 13 TD 11 INT
2002: 218/379 2924 yds 22 TD 8 INT
2001: 192/324 2789 yds 17 TD 9 INT
Not counting 2006 that averages out to (this is one time adding shite up and dividing by 12 and I didn't double check my work because this is for fun and frick math):
2,987.3333 yds 23.75 TDs 9.42 INTs
Obviously there are a ton of variables to consider like injuries, the running game, and the OL for those teams but my point is we expect a first year starter (subtracting GT and Nebraska) to beat the average pass yards (admittedly not by much), crush the avg amount of TDs, and throw under the avg INTs in a group that includes 3-4 of the best QBs in Georgia history and Joe Cox?
This is getting a bit novelish but I guess I am saying that Mason isn't as talented as most of those QBs. Does he have better weapons than all of them excluding Murray and probably Stafford in 2008? Probably, but those guys also had experience and more talent. I saw some things I loved in Mason in the final 2.5 qtrs vs GT and the final 1.5 qtrs vs Nebraska but I saw some things vs Nebraska in the first half and GT in the first half that worried me. Obviously Mason isn't going to come in and be god and I am totally ok with that but in the end I can't see him putting up the numbers you suggested.
To be completely honest I think this team will be better off if Mason has more of a Greene-like approach. A game manager. Greene doesn't have the stats that Murray and Stafford did but he easily had more wins. I'd prefer a year where Mason had maybe 350 attempts. I think we can expect maybe like 2900 yds passing 24 TDs and 12 INTs and win because unlike some of those other QBs Mason has Gurley/Marshall.
But 3000 yds 30 TDs and 7 INTs? I'll be very surprised if he reaches that.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 12:45 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Name a better, more proven qb in sec for 14, besides marshall, if you are doing a preseason list?
Personally ahead of Mason I'd have Bo Wallace, Maty Mauk, Nick Marshall, and maybe Jeff Driskel. I add Driskel because he has a season and a half of experience and they are finally moving to an offense more suited to him.
You could argue Dylan Thompson but frankly despite his having more experience I don't see the guy as a world beater. One could also argue Dak Prescott but again this guy isn't amazing despite the MSU folk desire for a he15man.
Point being I think there are 3-4 QBs you could argue ahead of Mason. I think Mason is good but not great and that Georgia needs to focus on balance and try as hard as they can to revert back to a run first offense.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 1:32 pm to Damn Good Dawg
quote:
Mason isn't as talented as most of those QBs.
How do you know? He very well could be better than Greene.
quote:
Greene doesn't have the stats that Murray and Stafford did but he easily had more wins.
Greene only had to score over 30 to win three times or something ridiculous. Given the same defense, Murray would've gone undefeated his last two seasons and probably wouldn't have thrown it as much since he wouldn't have had to. Stafford and gang scored 42 against Tech in 2008...and lost. Never happened while Van Gorder was DC.
If by some miracle Pruitt fields a defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally then you're probably right. Mason won't have the numbers. If the defense is even close to as bas as it was last season, you better believe Bobo is gonna give him the chance to put up the numbers.
I stand by it. Mason will be fine. He may throw more than 7 ints but he'll go over 3000 with a boatload of TDs.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 3:06 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
I don't think anybody is arguing that Mason can't get the job done. (At least, I am not) I like what I saw of Mason last year. When things went badly (GT and Nebraska) he didn't panic. he brought us back. I THINK he will have a very good year and Georgia will too. However, making him a preseason all SEC pick is another matter, entirely. I also believe that Bobo has shown that he can tailor a game plan around his QB, so I expect a pretty good if not special year.
This.
quote:
Name a better, more proven qb in sec for 14, besides marshall, if you are doing a preseason list?
Bo Wallace is who I would choose as the best QB in the conference going into this year.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 7:25 pm to adammwilson
The Thompson kid at USC has a good argument. I think Mauk from Mizzou looked real, real solid when Franklin was out.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 8:37 pm to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
I think Mauk from Mizzou looked real, real solid when Franklin was out.
Mauk looked better to me than Franklin. Franklin sucked against us, got knocked out of the game and Mauk came in and won the game. They definitely should have played Mauk in the SECCG.
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