re: Well gents, it’s all there in front of us

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I’d bet everything I own a 10-2 Texas with loses to Maryland and Tech or WVU would not get in over 10-2 A&M.

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No way. There’s just no way.

Edit: I misread you. We agree. There’s no way Texas would get in over A&M in that scenario.

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We've had it all out there in front of us before.

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Indeed...and shite ourselves in Starkville the last time that happened.

It’s a hypothetical

I’m not saying we will do it, but we could. Both State and Auburn lines will be between pickem and +3 by kickoff, we’ll be heavy favorites against OM and UAB and if we’re 9-2 will be a 3-4 point dog to LSU.

Those are all very winnable games. People are terrified of LSU but they are a bad offensive night on the road away from losing by a couple scores.

I know, that’s what I said

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our offense has struggled to move the ball against below average defenses.

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That simply isn’t true. First of all we have only played ONE average P5 defense (Arkansas) and even they are 43rd in adjusted defensive ranking. Every other P5 defense has been elite to good.

We are #15 in total offense, #17 in adjusted offense and #21 in offensive efficiency. We have played the #2, #3, #7 and #22 adjusted defenses in America already and will play #1, #9 and #11 before the year ends. If those numbers hold we’ll have played the toughest defensive schedule anyone ever has since the Massey adjusted rankings system has been in use.

Against the four teams in the top 22 we have already faced, we are averaging 23 points and 410 yards per game. Those 4 teams give up an average of 304 yards and 17 points per game.

We have played an incredibly difficult defensive schedule and are still a top 15-20 offense.

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We're going to drop at least 2 more, and at least one might not be close. Likely to Auburn or MSU, and LSU.

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We’re a better team right now than State and Auburn and almost every objective metric from conference play so far supports that. They will be tough games but losing both would constitute a pretty big disappointment.

LSU is our toughest game left but it is at home and their offense combined with our run defense will keep it close. LSU has been a very bad road team since 2013.

Why would a 10-2 A&M be above an 11-2 East division winner?

It's also worth noting that a 2 loss team has never made the CFP. 16 teams. All have 1 or 0 losses. That is still a small sample size, but until a 2 loss team makes it, I have no hope for a 2 loss team making it.

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Why would a 10-2 A&M be above an 11-2 East division winner?

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Timing of losses, SoS and the fact that they would be the 4 seed and play Bama again in the first round.

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Indeed...and shite ourselves in Starkville the last time that happened.

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Yup. That's where I snapped on Sumlin mentally.

Yeah I'd been holding out hope for us to turn the corner under Sumlin up until that game. I was hurt on a personal level that I didn't think possible

Oh yeah I forgot you were out there. Yikes.