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The SECw is opening up.

Posted on 1/11/22 at 7:43 am
Posted by cokebottleag
I’m a Santos Republican
Member since Aug 2011
24028 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 7:43 am
Bama looked mortal all season. LSU is struggling. Auburn doesn't have the heft they once did.

The next 5 years are going to be a time of great change in the SECw. If there is any time for us to end our conference championship dry spell, this is goin to be it.
Posted by Texas Gentleman
Texas
Member since Sep 2015
2607 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 8:43 am to
Bama Im still not sold on faltering just yet, yes they definitely had a weaker team this year but Saban is a machine and my guess is he will still have them at a high level until he leaves (which I think is still a few years away).

I do agree that with all the turnover and change at LSU and Auburn we need to step up and start contending for the west regularly. Jimbo has a nice opportunity here, lets hope he makes use of it.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60096 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 10:12 am to
We *should be* improving but I wouldn’t say it’s opening up. Bama is still Bama
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55191 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 11:02 am to
Bamas still has four and five stars three deep at every single position
Posted by cokebottleag
I’m a Santos Republican
Member since Aug 2011
24028 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

We *should be* improving but I wouldn’t say it’s opening up. Bama is still Bama



Not in the same way. They struggled all season. It was more of a fluke that they didn't drop more, than the other way around.

I think you'll see a weaker team next season. I don't give a shite what their recruiting stars are. They aren't going to be easy, but they aren't the team of Saban's youth either.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50127 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 2:41 pm to
Disagree. They're still a juggernaut. They return almost everyone and add a really strong recruiting class and some high-end transfers. They'll probably upgrade on the coaching staff too.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60096 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 3:12 pm to
I need more than like 5 game sample size before declaring them on the decline, sorry. Much more likely they’re dominant again
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
155265 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 5:22 pm to
I think we’ll be back on track in ‘23

Auburn has a bunch of seniors returning, ole miss will be competitive as long as Kiffin is there. Leach will do Leach things and keep state competitive enough.

Even when saban retires he’s leaving behind a monster. They’ll probably naturally “decline” to like early Miles LSU as Saban left behind a pretty well oiled machine when he went to the dolphins but not this well oiled.

The west has been and will continue to be the toughest division in the game.

I didn’t even mention Arkansas and we both lost to them
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60096 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 7:20 pm to
Yeah Auburn has a tough outlook I think. Everyone else has significant reason for optimism. Auburn with Calzada/Finley next year could be rough and then you’re probably looking at a new coach
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
2980 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 7:30 pm to
quote:

Bama Im still not sold on faltering just yet, yes they definitely had a weaker team this year but Saban is a machine and my guess is he will still have them at a high level until he leaves

Alabama was listed as the favorite to win the 2022 title with all the oddsmakers that released championship odds today.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
21497 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 1:15 pm to
It all depends on the QB. A&M has all the other pieces in place for the most part
Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 3:40 pm to
Bama is still Bama but the cracks are showing. Saban losing to Jimbo and Kirby means something. Saban going over 70 means something. I don't see a major decline but the appearance of invincibility is not what it was. They could play horribly though and still win 10 games, they just have far superior talent to all but a couple of teams on their schedule. Hell I don't see anyone but A&M even giving them a real contest with LSU and Auburn rebuilding and the Mississippi schools and Arkie just not having the talent. They get Vandy from the East to go with Tennessee. Texas is their best OOC opponent.

I do think it sets up well for A&M. We have a lot of dangerous games but we should be favor in every one except Bama. We have to play with a lot more consistency though and start to see our talent separate us to make those dangerous games into easier wins.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
21497 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 4:30 pm to
If you think LSU is going to fall off the map prepare for disappointment. They are rebuilding with experienced players through the portal
Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 5:04 pm to
I didn't say they would fall off the map, I said they were rebuilding. I also have been around long enough to remember when LSU did fall off the map though and it can absolutely happen if they aren't careful. LSU has dominated Louisiana recruiting not because every kid grows up wanting to go to LSU so much as LSU has been so good the last 20 years. Kelly is also a really awkward fit and is the kind of guy who could burn a lot of bridges.

The conservative answer is LSU will rebuild and be back in the next couple of years but I think it is just as likely they stumble further and realize it is not so easy to get back up.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58028 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 5:55 pm to
They just went to the national title game w/a sophomore who was a first year starter. If that's a decline we may as well not even watch b/c we're never going to break through.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58028 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

Saban losing to Jimbo and Kirby means something. Saban going over 70 means something. I don't see a major decline but the appearance of invincibility is not what it was.


It doesn't mean shite. Bama got caught having to beat the same team twice which is extremely hard to do. They had a bad first half against us and gave up a kickoff for a TD. That almost never happens. Our win was far more on the lucky side of things than it was us turning a corner or Bama falling off. Hell, Saban only has 2 undefeated seasons and one of those came in the COVID year.
This post was edited on 1/12/22 at 5:59 pm
Posted by Ag_16
Your moms house
Member since Oct 2019
2599 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 8:22 pm to
I wouldn’t say our win was lucky but it was an extremely personal game and us catching them at home was a huge deal.

I’d also like to point out that Bamas 2 best playmakers either didn’t play or got hurt, that’s a big deal and helped Georgia a lot. I wouldn’t say Bama has fallen off
Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:51 pm to
quote:

quote:
Saban losing to Jimbo and Kirby means something. Saban going over 70 means something. I don't see a major decline but the appearance of invincibility is not what it was.



It doesn't mean shite. Bama got caught having to beat the same team twice which is extremely hard to do. They had a bad first half against us and gave up a kickoff for a TD. That almost never happens. Our win was far more on the lucky side of things than it was us turning a corner or Bama falling off. Hell, Saban only has 2 undefeated seasons and one of those came in the COVID year.


Prior to this year Saban had never lost to an assistant. If you don't think the aura of Bama and Saban matters we will just have to disagree. There is a mental side to the game.

As for our game against Bama we led most of that game, much of it by double digits. Bama also got some big breaks with the blocked punt TD and some of the penalty calls (such as the 2 Defensive Delay of Game Penalties and the inexplicable non call of not being set at all on the last Bama TD). We made the plays and beat them and we could have easily beat them by a good bit more with a few breaks.

Maybe Saban has another 5 years of being at the top, it's possible. It's just very unlikely. Paterno and Bowden started to drop off quite a bit at his age. Bear dropped off even younger. Every year the odds stack up more and more against him staying at the level he is at. You rarely see the drop off until it hits as well. The amount of energy required to maintain a program like Bama is extremely difficult for a younger man much less a 70 plus year old.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60096 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 11:25 pm to
Acknowledging Paterno and Bowden are great coaches, but they respectfully can't hold Saban's jock with what he has accomplished. It's not really close. There isn't modern a day precedent for the juggernaut Alabama has built, so you can try to predict their demise and all that but it seems like a fool's errand. I would much rather see us win a title when they're still a monster anyway

And the assistant beating him thing is fodder for shows like Finebaum. It is absolutely meaningless
This post was edited on 1/12/22 at 11:29 pm
Posted by Texas Gentleman
Texas
Member since Sep 2015
2607 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 9:37 am to
quote:

Acknowledging Paterno and Bowden are great coaches, but they respectfully can't hold Saban's jock with what he has accomplished. It's not really close. There isn't modern a day precedent for the juggernaut Alabama has built, so you can try to predict their demise and all that but it seems like a fool's errand. I would much rather see us win a title when they're still a monster anyway

And the assistant beating him thing is fodder for shows like Finebaum. It is absolutely meaningless


Agree strongly with this take. As I said in my earlier post, Saban is a machine and I dont think he will taper off much. One day he will get tired and throw in the towel and quit, but it wont be because he's lost his touch and Bama is all of a sudden going 8-4 a bunch of seasons.

Him finally losing to two former assistants isnt that big of a deal, has happened to a bunch of other coaches over the years, they just liked having something to talk about on broadcasts.

Finally, I'd rather beat them and win it all during their dynasty than after. Makes it even that much more of an achievement.

End of the day, SEC West is still going to be one of the hardest divisions in college football for the forseeable future, focus less on other teams and on what we can control, ourselves, and keep building our program up on a good foundation.
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