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Potential Bowl Destinations - Its the Gator vs Wake :-/
Posted on 11/28/21 at 4:24 am
Posted on 11/28/21 at 4:24 am
SEC Bowl pecking order after playoff selections
01. Sugar vs Big 12
02. Citrus vs Big 10
Group of 6
- Music City vs Big 10
- Outback vs Big 10
- Liberty vs Big 12
- Texas vs Big 12
- Gator vs ACC
- Duke's Mayo (odd years) vs ACC / Las Vegas (even years) vs Pac 12
09. Birmingham vs pool
10. Gasparilla vs pool
13 SEC teams are bowl eligible.
At 8-4 the odds are minuscule enough that as high as the Citrus or being pushed as low as the Birmingham or Gasparilla should be dismissed. Our ticket sales to the Gator were pathetic so it's doubtful we go back there any time soon. Sadly this is an odd year so instead of the Las Vegas Bowl tie in we have the Duke's Mayo Bowl (Belk) in Charlotte. Our ticket sales sucked to that too so I doubt we get directed there.
This leaves the Outback, Texas, Liberty, and Music City as the most likely destinations.
Outback
Why we get it - We've never been and we'd be one of two 8-4 teams they could get. We have yet to play a Big 10 opponent as a member of the SEC. January 1 in Florida (even if it's Tampa) is one of the easier trips to pitch for a bowl.
Why we don't - Our ticket sales were awful to the Gator on NYE and w/the season ending w/extremely disappointing losses in 2 of the last 3 I doubt there would be a lot of enthusiasm for many Ags to travel that far. The Outback may push for the SEC to give them Tennessee whose fanbase has a ton more optimism right now.
Texas
Why we get it - Close to home, easy game to sell tickets to since it's in Houston which helps the school avoid eating too many unsold tickets. Could get Texas Tech as an opponent which should lead to some mild fan interest and a (hopefully) easier game we can win.
Why we don't - We've been to the Texas Bowl 3 times in the last 10 years w/the most recent being in 2019. The entire point of pooling the group of 6 was to avoid repetitive matchups. While it's easy for many Ags to get to the oddly random game date of Tuesday January 4th at 8pm CST will be a pretty big turnoff for many potential attendees.
Liberty
Why we get it - We have not been since Sumlin's 3rd year in 2014. Tech would be in play as a potential opponent here as well and it's close enough that a lot of Ags could drive.
Why we don't - Our ticket sales to the last Liberty weren't terrible but also not great. (this has been a theme for bowls outside of Texas and Louisiana BTW). Likely opponent here is Iowa State and that would generate a big fat meh from out fan base. The game itself will be at 5:45 on Tuesday Dec 28 which is a really shitty date for potential attendees b/c it's far enough from NYE that it's expensive to stay all week and close enough to Christmas that it'll be hard to justify uprooting the family to go. It's been one year longer since Mississippi State has been to Memphis for a bowl and they actually sold more tickets for their game w/Rice than we did w/ours vs Louisville.
Music City
Why we get it - We have have not been since 2015 and of our likely destinations Nashville is probably the most fun for people to go to. Dropped it's alternating ACC/Big 10 rotation for just Big 10 vs SEC so we'd finally have a shot at a Big 10 bowl opponent which likely comes from Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, or Purdue. The Thursday December 30, 2pm CST date makes this one easy to either stay in Nashville for NYE or to start the drive back to Texas after the game. (assuming you want to make it a two day drive)
Why we don't - Another not terrible not great situation when it comes to ticket sales from when we were there last. We barely outdrew the Kentucky/Northwestern Music City Bowl which is kind of sad.
Prediction
I doubt Bama beats UGA and unless the Tide have some secret gear they've been sitting on the Bulldogs probably beat them badly enough that they fall out of the playoff to the Sugar. That probably puts Ole Miss in an NY6 (Fiesta or Peach but my bet is Fiesta) and Kentucky in the Citrus.
Arkansas likely gets the Outback or Gator but I lean Outback b/c it's on NYD and b/c of how they finished the year winning 4 of 5. Tennessee winning 3 of their last 4 and having some excitement in the fanbase IMO will make Tennessee an attractive match for the Gator. We were at the Texas Bowl recently enough that I think they'll end up being a match for LSU who hasn't been since 2015. Mayo Bowl likely gets USCe or Florida.
That leaves the Music City and Liberty as the most likely landing spots.
Miss State was at the Liberty last year but was also in the Music City in 2019 so that makes their placement a little difficult unless they get pushed to the Texas w/LSU being moved more than likely to the Liberty.
So long story short
I'm thinking our most likely destination will be Music City, Liberty, Outback, and Texas in that order. The only thing that gives me pause about the Outback is that we've never been. It's just that our ticket sales were so awful to the Gator that I have to wonder if our admin would look to avoid eating several thousand pricey tickets that it can't sell. That 10am CST kick time is pretty fricking awful too so even if it's more prestigious I kind of hope we avoid the Outback Bowl this year.
Final pick is
Music City vs Wisconsin/Minnesota/Purdue
Brand name wise I'd prefer Wisconsin but since I'm now down to caring more about winning our bowl and getting one game closer back to .500 in bowls all time I'd prefer Purdue as I think we match up far better with them than the Badgers and Gophers. Wisky has the #1 run defense by a wide margin at just 64 yards per game and Minny is #12 at 103 per while Purdue way down at #76 at 156 per game. In case you'd like to know we are at #49 w/138 per.
01. Sugar vs Big 12
02. Citrus vs Big 10
Group of 6
- Music City vs Big 10
- Outback vs Big 10
- Liberty vs Big 12
- Texas vs Big 12
- Gator vs ACC
- Duke's Mayo (odd years) vs ACC / Las Vegas (even years) vs Pac 12
09. Birmingham vs pool
10. Gasparilla vs pool
13 SEC teams are bowl eligible.
At 8-4 the odds are minuscule enough that as high as the Citrus or being pushed as low as the Birmingham or Gasparilla should be dismissed. Our ticket sales to the Gator were pathetic so it's doubtful we go back there any time soon. Sadly this is an odd year so instead of the Las Vegas Bowl tie in we have the Duke's Mayo Bowl (Belk) in Charlotte. Our ticket sales sucked to that too so I doubt we get directed there.
This leaves the Outback, Texas, Liberty, and Music City as the most likely destinations.
Outback
Why we get it - We've never been and we'd be one of two 8-4 teams they could get. We have yet to play a Big 10 opponent as a member of the SEC. January 1 in Florida (even if it's Tampa) is one of the easier trips to pitch for a bowl.
Why we don't - Our ticket sales were awful to the Gator on NYE and w/the season ending w/extremely disappointing losses in 2 of the last 3 I doubt there would be a lot of enthusiasm for many Ags to travel that far. The Outback may push for the SEC to give them Tennessee whose fanbase has a ton more optimism right now.
Texas
Why we get it - Close to home, easy game to sell tickets to since it's in Houston which helps the school avoid eating too many unsold tickets. Could get Texas Tech as an opponent which should lead to some mild fan interest and a (hopefully) easier game we can win.
Why we don't - We've been to the Texas Bowl 3 times in the last 10 years w/the most recent being in 2019. The entire point of pooling the group of 6 was to avoid repetitive matchups. While it's easy for many Ags to get to the oddly random game date of Tuesday January 4th at 8pm CST will be a pretty big turnoff for many potential attendees.
Liberty
Why we get it - We have not been since Sumlin's 3rd year in 2014. Tech would be in play as a potential opponent here as well and it's close enough that a lot of Ags could drive.
Why we don't - Our ticket sales to the last Liberty weren't terrible but also not great. (this has been a theme for bowls outside of Texas and Louisiana BTW). Likely opponent here is Iowa State and that would generate a big fat meh from out fan base. The game itself will be at 5:45 on Tuesday Dec 28 which is a really shitty date for potential attendees b/c it's far enough from NYE that it's expensive to stay all week and close enough to Christmas that it'll be hard to justify uprooting the family to go. It's been one year longer since Mississippi State has been to Memphis for a bowl and they actually sold more tickets for their game w/Rice than we did w/ours vs Louisville.
Music City
Why we get it - We have have not been since 2015 and of our likely destinations Nashville is probably the most fun for people to go to. Dropped it's alternating ACC/Big 10 rotation for just Big 10 vs SEC so we'd finally have a shot at a Big 10 bowl opponent which likely comes from Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, or Purdue. The Thursday December 30, 2pm CST date makes this one easy to either stay in Nashville for NYE or to start the drive back to Texas after the game. (assuming you want to make it a two day drive)
Why we don't - Another not terrible not great situation when it comes to ticket sales from when we were there last. We barely outdrew the Kentucky/Northwestern Music City Bowl which is kind of sad.
Prediction
I doubt Bama beats UGA and unless the Tide have some secret gear they've been sitting on the Bulldogs probably beat them badly enough that they fall out of the playoff to the Sugar. That probably puts Ole Miss in an NY6 (Fiesta or Peach but my bet is Fiesta) and Kentucky in the Citrus.
Arkansas likely gets the Outback or Gator but I lean Outback b/c it's on NYD and b/c of how they finished the year winning 4 of 5. Tennessee winning 3 of their last 4 and having some excitement in the fanbase IMO will make Tennessee an attractive match for the Gator. We were at the Texas Bowl recently enough that I think they'll end up being a match for LSU who hasn't been since 2015. Mayo Bowl likely gets USCe or Florida.
That leaves the Music City and Liberty as the most likely landing spots.
Miss State was at the Liberty last year but was also in the Music City in 2019 so that makes their placement a little difficult unless they get pushed to the Texas w/LSU being moved more than likely to the Liberty.
So long story short
I'm thinking our most likely destination will be Music City, Liberty, Outback, and Texas in that order. The only thing that gives me pause about the Outback is that we've never been. It's just that our ticket sales were so awful to the Gator that I have to wonder if our admin would look to avoid eating several thousand pricey tickets that it can't sell. That 10am CST kick time is pretty fricking awful too so even if it's more prestigious I kind of hope we avoid the Outback Bowl this year.
Final pick is
Music City vs Wisconsin/Minnesota/Purdue
Brand name wise I'd prefer Wisconsin but since I'm now down to caring more about winning our bowl and getting one game closer back to .500 in bowls all time I'd prefer Purdue as I think we match up far better with them than the Badgers and Gophers. Wisky has the #1 run defense by a wide margin at just 64 yards per game and Minny is #12 at 103 per while Purdue way down at #76 at 156 per game. In case you'd like to know we are at #49 w/138 per.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 2:31 pm
5
Posted on 11/28/21 at 7:52 am to Dr RC
Basically a big wet fart list of bowls. I just pray it’s not the texas bowl again against someone from the big 12, if it is I really most likely won’t watch. Super boring and want us to at least play someone we don’t usually play.
But beggars can’t be choosers and the team that played last night probably needs a weaker opponent in the bowl game to have a chance at winning.
But beggars can’t be choosers and the team that played last night probably needs a weaker opponent in the bowl game to have a chance at winning.
Posted on 11/28/21 at 8:45 am to Texas Gentleman
I expect we will see several opt outs to prep for the NFL draft for our players with early round draft scores. I expect Leal, Clemons, Spiller, Wydermyer and Green to opt out. No idea how the rest of our draft eligible players grade out.
This bowl game is going to give us a preview of what our team will look like going into next year. The practice and game reps we get for the backups moving into the starting roles/rotation for next year are much needed.
This bowl game is going to give us a preview of what our team will look like going into next year. The practice and game reps we get for the backups moving into the starting roles/rotation for next year are much needed.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 2:21 pm to Dr RC
ugh... right now it looks like we may be getting the worst case scenario w/the Gator bowl at 10am on NYE most likely against Wake. 
Mayo, Texas, Outback, Music City, Citrus all out as destinations.
Mayo, Texas, Outback, Music City, Citrus all out as destinations.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 2:30 pm to Dr RC
Welp... McMurphy is reporting the Gator so thats pretty much a lock.
what a terrible way to end the year playing game that nobody will go to and nobody will watch b/c its at 10am in the morning.
what a terrible way to end the year playing game that nobody will go to and nobody will watch b/c its at 10am in the morning.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 3:11 pm to Dr RC
I predict the gator bowl versus wake forest
Just a guess
Just a guess
Posted on 12/5/21 at 3:14 pm to Old Sarge
Yeah this sucks.
our 6th ACC opponent in a bowl, 5th time vs a school from North Carolina, 2nd time vs Wake, and its a game thats at 10am.
our 6th ACC opponent in a bowl, 5th time vs a school from North Carolina, 2nd time vs Wake, and its a game thats at 10am.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 4:25 pm to Dr RC
quote:
our 6th ACC opponent in a bowl, 5th time vs a school from North Carolina, 2nd time vs Wake, and its a game thats at 10am.
I'm going to watch it. Unless it is on CBS.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 4:33 pm to Dr RC
I just hope we win
Posted on 12/5/21 at 4:39 pm to Old Sarge
Ditto!
Posted on 12/5/21 at 5:04 pm to Dr RC
Better than texas bowl vs a big 12 team we’ve played a ton already. And this gives us a chance to get revenge for the game we lost to them a few years ago. Jeff Banks 1 loss as a head coach, now he’s getting sued because of his stripper’s monkey.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 7:51 pm to Dr RC
fricking Wake Forest again? I was planning on going to this year's bowl if it was in Florida. But Wake Forest being the opponent changes that. They're the Baylor of the ACC. Nobody cares about them, even when they're good. You beat them and nobody cares. You lose to them and it hurts your brand. There's nothing to gain from this game other than risking the progress being made.
Furthermore, the Wake Forest brand is as exciting as a G5 brand. It's a lose, lose situation. You beat them and nobody cares. You lose to them and your brand takes a hit.
What a shite bowl. I'm just going to stay home and probably not even watch. It's a shitty draw. The bad Aggy in me is rooting for a COVID-19 cancellation. frick this bowl.
Furthermore, the Wake Forest brand is as exciting as a G5 brand. It's a lose, lose situation. You beat them and nobody cares. You lose to them and your brand takes a hit.
What a shite bowl. I'm just going to stay home and probably not even watch. It's a shitty draw. The bad Aggy in me is rooting for a COVID-19 cancellation. frick this bowl.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 8:06 pm to Texas Gentleman
Banks is a very good ST coach. That should be the source and end of his metrics. Not his GF's choice of emotional support animals. We lost that game because the team was otherwise in disarray, not because of Banks. I love Terry Price, and to my knowledge he has no girlfriend, and no emotional support animals on that tier. But having him as coach for a game (or Nick Saban, for that matter) wouldn't have changed squat.
At this point, I don't think there should be bowl games beyond playoffs. Too many kids (rightfully, based on the math) opt out. A&M isn't playing Wake. What's left of A&M us playing what's left of Wake. and that favors the team with fewer top end players. People read value into them, but they are really just preseason games.
At this point, I don't think there should be bowl games beyond playoffs. Too many kids (rightfully, based on the math) opt out. A&M isn't playing Wake. What's left of A&M us playing what's left of Wake. and that favors the team with fewer top end players. People read value into them, but they are really just preseason games.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 8:37 pm to socal91
Oh I just threw in the part about Banks because that’s our tie to him. I don’t blame him for one loss trying to pickup the pieces in a bowl game after we fired Sumlin.
Dude is trash on a personal level for leaving his family to be with a stripper, but professionally I’m sure he’s a decent coach.
Yes this is a boring bowl, but nobody to blame but ourselves. Even with those early season back to back losses we still had a NY6 bowl ahead of us if we close out the season with two wins instead of two losses. I’ll watch but that’s about it, win or lose won’t really move the needle for me. Jimbo needs to step it up next season, end of the story.
Dude is trash on a personal level for leaving his family to be with a stripper, but professionally I’m sure he’s a decent coach.
Yes this is a boring bowl, but nobody to blame but ourselves. Even with those early season back to back losses we still had a NY6 bowl ahead of us if we close out the season with two wins instead of two losses. I’ll watch but that’s about it, win or lose won’t really move the needle for me. Jimbo needs to step it up next season, end of the story.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 9:10 pm to Texas Gentleman
We have too much talent to be #25. Heck. Starkel and Co are ranked above us.
We are ostensibly the #8 composite team in terms of talent in 2021. Luck and coaching make up th delta between talent and outcome.
We are ostensibly the #8 composite team in terms of talent in 2021. Luck and coaching make up th delta between talent and outcome.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 11:09 pm to Texas Gentleman
quote:
Yes this is a boring bowl, but nobody to blame but ourselves.
ehh.. when it comes to not getting Citrus or higher sure.
But the SEC putting us here instead of the Outback (which we've never played in) or the Music City so that we can FINALLY get a Big 10 matchup is total horseshite.
The entire point of the the SEC having control of the who goes where w/the Gator, Outback, Texas, Liberty, Music City, and Mayo is so that nobody has to suffer from repetitive match ups and yet here we are playing Wake for second time after getting them in '17 in a bowl we just played in '18.
On top of that the Gator and Belk vs Wake are easily our two worst modern day showings for attendance in bowls by a large margin (obviously not counting COVID restricted Orange). W/this game being played at 10am CST against a team most are not going to care about it's highly likely we are going to be eating the cost of a shitload of tickets.
In fact, I'd go so far as to bet that this is the lowest attended (non covid) Gator bowl since the 50s which would beat out *drumroll* our game against NC State which at just 38k was also the first Gator Bowl under 40k since 1956.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 12/6/21 at 7:55 am to Dr RC
Playing at 10am against wake forest with no one in the stands seems like the proper punishment for losing to both Mississippi schools.
Posted on 12/6/21 at 9:51 am to PhilipMarlowe
quote:
Playing at 10am against wake forest with no one in the stands
We are going to be in Nokomis, FL from Dec 28th to Jan 2. Was going to day trip it to Orlando for Citrus. Now thinking we will leave young son with grand parents and head to Jacksonville for the game and spend New Years there. Good seats will be C H E A P.
Posted on 12/6/21 at 10:48 am to Tridentds
Tridents, that sounds like a good plan. Might as well.
After all there are damned few Aggie football games each season. I'll watch the game, even though it's not the one I was hoping we'd get.
After all there are damned few Aggie football games each season. I'll watch the game, even though it's not the one I was hoping we'd get.
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