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Wiseguys, educate me
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:27 am
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:27 am
As a neutral observer I was surprised at the 20 point opening line for Bama/Ole Miss. Bamas averaging 50+ and won by 60 last year.
Now, I learn that 60% of MS is betting on Bama, but almost 60% of the bettors in Vegas are on Ole Miss.
What do people know that's gonna keep this a 3 TD game?
Now, I learn that 60% of MS is betting on Bama, but almost 60% of the bettors in Vegas are on Ole Miss.
What do people know that's gonna keep this a 3 TD game?
9
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:30 am to Vecchio Cane
Old adage in gambling
The masses are asses
Not always true, but something to think about
The masses are asses
Not always true, but something to think about
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:30 am to Vecchio Cane
I think the Ole Miss loansharks are basing their bets on past performances. They expect Tua to be taken out on a stretcher during the first half. I think Ole Miss can keep it to 20 points with Hurts as QB.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:31 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Now, I learn that 60% of MS is betting on Bama, but almost 60% of the bettors in Vegas are on Ole Miss
Don't look at the percentage of bettors as much as the percentage of money. The percentage of money will tell you where the professional bets are going. For example, if 60% of the bets are on Ole Miss but 60% of the money is on Alabama, that tells you that larger bets are being placed on Alabama. The larger bets generally come from professional or more serious bettors.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:32 am to VADawg
quote:
Don't look at the percentage of bettors as much as the percentage of money. The percentage of money will tell you where the professional bets are going. For example, if 60% of the bets are on Ole Miss but 60% of the money is on Alabama, that tells you that larger bets are being placed on Alabama. The larger bets generally come from professional or more serious bettors.
Excellent point, but I'm still surprised at the number of OM takers.
This, along with dcbl's earlier post makes me want to jump on Bama
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 8:34 am
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:32 am to TimeOutdoors
No matter what happens this weekend, the sand will still remain in your vagina. 
Posted on 9/14/18 at 8:34 am to Vecchio Cane
Ole miss breaking out the secret weapon this week. Hidden camera footage from inside the AD’s office Monday.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:14 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Mississippi St. Fan
quote:
neutral observer
I don't think so.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:23 am to Landmass
quote:
I don't think so.
I'm in other threads openly pulling for OM. An LSU fan even called me out for it.
I'd love to see Bama go down tomorrow, but we're talking $ here
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:36 am to Vecchio Cane
The only safe bet here is to take the over. That is easy money.
As for betting the spread, Alabama -21 looks awfully delicious. It's always helpful to remember that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
I still think Bama covers but I wouldn't want to put money on it. Ole Miss is capable of scoring a lot of points.
If the O/U is still 71, however, I'd be jumping all over that. They may get there at halftime.
As for betting the spread, Alabama -21 looks awfully delicious. It's always helpful to remember that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
I still think Bama covers but I wouldn't want to put money on it. Ole Miss is capable of scoring a lot of points.
If the O/U is still 71, however, I'd be jumping all over that. They may get there at halftime.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:38 am to Drebin
quote:
The only safe bet here is to take the over. That is easy money.
Correct.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:41 am to Vecchio Cane
I think Bama covers but there are a few angles bettors are exploring.
1. Better Ole Miss QB play. Shea played one of the worst games I've seen out of a QB last year against Bama. He read incorrectly on 75% of the RPO plays because he wanted to make the big play. Jordan is way better at making his reads.
2. Ole Miss returned everyone offensively except the RB and a RT who only started half of the year, and our current RB leads the SEC in rushing.
3. Bama's defensive weakness, or maybe rather, least best unit is the secondary which is a good match up in Ole Miss' favor.
4. Ole Miss has the most experienced O-line it has probably ever had. 4/5 starters are at least in year 3 with 2 in year 4 as a starter and they're anchored by a potential 1st round pick.
So if Bama plays a so-so game and has turnovers, I could see them winning something like 42-24 but my gut says more like 55-24.
1. Better Ole Miss QB play. Shea played one of the worst games I've seen out of a QB last year against Bama. He read incorrectly on 75% of the RPO plays because he wanted to make the big play. Jordan is way better at making his reads.
2. Ole Miss returned everyone offensively except the RB and a RT who only started half of the year, and our current RB leads the SEC in rushing.
3. Bama's defensive weakness, or maybe rather, least best unit is the secondary which is a good match up in Ole Miss' favor.
4. Ole Miss has the most experienced O-line it has probably ever had. 4/5 starters are at least in year 3 with 2 in year 4 as a starter and they're anchored by a potential 1st round pick.
So if Bama plays a so-so game and has turnovers, I could see them winning something like 42-24 but my gut says more like 55-24.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 10:13 am to Drebin
Got SportsLine at o/u 70.
Noticed Bama at -20 so I got a small taste.
Here's to OM jumping out to another 24-3 lead tomorrow
Noticed Bama at -20 so I got a small taste.
Here's to OM jumping out to another 24-3 lead tomorrow
Posted on 9/14/18 at 10:15 am to Vecchio Cane
It's one of those games where you don't really know what to do because Ole Miss could very possibly score a ton late against prevent schemes and/or backups.
A 45-20 game at the start of the 4th could end 52-34 or 52-41. It could also be one of those catch up games where Alabama leads by 14-21 the whole game.
Or, Ole Miss could have a few tricks on offense and defense and jump out to a 14-0 lead or something.
A 45-20 game at the start of the 4th could end 52-34 or 52-41. It could also be one of those catch up games where Alabama leads by 14-21 the whole game.
Or, Ole Miss could have a few tricks on offense and defense and jump out to a 14-0 lead or something.
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 10:17 am
Posted on 9/14/18 at 10:19 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Got SportsLine at o/u 70.
Noticed Bama at -20 so I got a small taste.
Here's to OM jumping out to another 24-3 lead tomorrow
Good luck!
I really like the over bet.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 10:28 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
As a neutral observer I was surprised at the 20 point opening line for Bama/Ole Miss
Bama gonna cover. We may score in the first half, but second half will stretch the margin past twenty.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 10:57 am to Vecchio Cane
It's at 21.5 on Bovada right now.
That 1.5 is huge. I took Bama in the ATS pick em, but I didn't put any real money on it.
That 1.5 is huge. I took Bama in the ATS pick em, but I didn't put any real money on it.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 11:01 am to JuiceTerry
quote:
It's at 21.5 on Bovada right now. That 1.5 is huge. I took Bama in the ATS pick em, but I didn't put any real money on it.
SportsLine is now at Bama -21 and O/U 69
Posted on 9/14/18 at 11:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Or, Ole Miss could have a few tricks on offense and defense
You do remember, don't you, that Matt Luke is our head coach? 
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