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Why is MI favored over BAMA in Vegas?
Posted on 12/19/23 at 10:30 am
Posted on 12/19/23 at 10:30 am
As some one who didn't watch any of Michigans games (I did catch most of Bamas), can anyone tell me why Vegas is predicting Bama to lose? Is Michigan that good? It seemed like they took a step back once the cheating thing came out. Maybe that was their competitive advantage?
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Posted on 12/19/23 at 10:33 am to The Scofflaw
They’re usually pretty smart about this stuff and you can’t simply take it at face value. They’re trying to make sure bets even out so they always come out on top so in close matchups they’re really gaming the public as much as analyzing the matchup.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 10:39 am to The Scofflaw
the BIG is always credited with being good until they face an SEC team. The eye test from what I have seen is they are really physical on defense and offense. They have looked dominant throughout the year but they also play in the big 10 so take that for what it is worth. Also the SEC was deemed to be down this year by the media while building up the PAC and Big 10...I think the SEC is as strong as usual and we will find out in a few weeks.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 10:40 am to The Scofflaw
because enough people keep putting enough money on Michigan to keep the line there.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 11:03 am to The Scofflaw
Maybe on the perceived strength of the Michigan defense? Michigan has impressive defensive stats, although most of the teams they've faced don't have very good offenses. So it's hard to judge whether they're really the top defense in the country or not. Still, it wouldn't be a stretch to see the game turn into a defensive struggle. Bama's offense hasn't exactly been overpowering this year, they've managed to do just enough to win. And Bama's most consistent RB (Jase McClellan) may not be able to play against Michigan.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 11:57 am to notsince98
quote:
because enough people keep putting enough money on Michigan to keep the line there.
This...and a lot of that money is probably a result of Alabama fatigue and not based on anything football related. Its wishful thinking...something along the lines of "I hate Alabama...I hope Michigan wins"...and then betting on that wish. I suspect when lines are close that is often the case...real gamblers would probably break about even and the game would be even but dumb money based on emotions go to one team and the other needs some incentive for dumb money to even it out.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:07 pm to AwgustaDawg
I think it’s a combination of things.
1) UM looks incredible from an advanced analytics perspective and the computer thinks they should beat Bama (+)
2) UM hasn’t played anyone outside of PSU and OSU who haven’t played anyone themselves outside of ND. It makes it impossible to say anything for sure other than UM > OSU > PSU (-)
3) UM hasn’t looked nearly as good offensively since the cheating scandal broke. Very likely they knew when the blitz was coming and now they don’t. (-)
4) Bama spent half the season as next to bad offensively and the 2nd half as elite. The bad half of the season is enough to flip the analytics towards UM hard. (+)
5) UM has to run the ball to win and no one without a mobile QB has run the ball against Bama. (-)
6) No one knows how Milroe will respond if UM can take away the first read and stuff the run. Might be enough to ugly it up and get a win (+)
7) UM hasn’t played a single top tier QB all year, we have no idea if their pass defense is actually elite or just a reflection of playing limited offenses. (-)
Bottom line is there are enough questions to make it a game you could pick either way.
1) UM looks incredible from an advanced analytics perspective and the computer thinks they should beat Bama (+)
2) UM hasn’t played anyone outside of PSU and OSU who haven’t played anyone themselves outside of ND. It makes it impossible to say anything for sure other than UM > OSU > PSU (-)
3) UM hasn’t looked nearly as good offensively since the cheating scandal broke. Very likely they knew when the blitz was coming and now they don’t. (-)
4) Bama spent half the season as next to bad offensively and the 2nd half as elite. The bad half of the season is enough to flip the analytics towards UM hard. (+)
5) UM has to run the ball to win and no one without a mobile QB has run the ball against Bama. (-)
6) No one knows how Milroe will respond if UM can take away the first read and stuff the run. Might be enough to ugly it up and get a win (+)
7) UM hasn’t played a single top tier QB all year, we have no idea if their pass defense is actually elite or just a reflection of playing limited offenses. (-)
Bottom line is there are enough questions to make it a game you could pick either way.
This post was edited on 12/19/23 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:10 pm to tide06
Alabama is capable of playing at an extremely high level, they are also capable of playing pretty average.
Michigan has been a more steady team this year. Pretty resilient bunch to not miss a beat vs Ohio State missing your head coach.
Michigan has been a more steady team this year. Pretty resilient bunch to not miss a beat vs Ohio State missing your head coach.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:29 pm to The Scofflaw
I've got a few hundy on Bama.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:41 pm to The Scofflaw
quote:
Why is MI favored over BAMA in Vegas?
Bc some people have more money than sense.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:50 pm to The Scofflaw
probably because michigan is consistent. bama has a higher ceiling/lower floor as a team.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:51 pm to The Scofflaw
Because the SEC is down this year. I mean, Bama lost to the steers. Granted, week two but it still plays a part.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:10 pm to The Scofflaw
If you went position group by position group, would Alabama have the advantage anywhere but secondary?
Alabama has one skill position player who's projected to be drafted in April. Michigan's quarterback is projected to be drafted in the first round in April.
Alabama has one skill position player who's projected to be drafted in April. Michigan's quarterback is projected to be drafted in the first round in April.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:14 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
Michigan is sneaky good. They beat the tar out of a much more talented tOSU team, quite a few times now. Kind of like WA. Sneaky good for the same reasons
I'd love to see a MI/WA final game.
I'd love to see a MI/WA final game.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:17 pm to The Scofflaw
quote:
As some one who didn't watch any of Michigans games (I did catch most of Bamas), can anyone tell me why Vegas is predicting Bama to lose? Is Michigan that good? It seemed like they took a step back once the cheating thing came out. Maybe that was their competitive advantage?
Why is LSU very bad on defense with a defense minded HC? If I were you, I would worry about LSU lose at least three games again next year and that isn't the normal for LSU to be out of the playoff when LSU had Ed Orgeron winning it all and he got fired 2 years later. Will LSU fans get frustrated if Kelly doesn't get LSU a championship in the next 2 years?
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:23 pm to ColoradoAg
Hey, don't sleep on Washington, either...tough, gritty team that's gonna be a tough out, IMHO!
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:24 pm to Blue and True
You did notice my tag, right? WA has been underestimated all year long
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:25 pm to The Scofflaw
Michigan fans think they're unbeatable. Bama fans ALWAYS think they're unbeatable. I hear it may flip to bama favored by the time the game rolls around.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:28 pm to The Scofflaw
I know, transitive property doesn't exist in sports, etc etc... but the gap between Georgia's O and Michigan's O seems a lot larger than the gap between Michigan's D and Georgia's D, if one even exists at all. Just don't get Michigan being favored in this game at all.
Posted on 12/19/23 at 3:48 pm to The Scofflaw
My guess is they think michigan has the athletes to keep milroes running controlled and he can't pass well enough. We'll find out In a couple weeks
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