re: Who is in worse shape as far as moving forward - UF, Auburn or LSU?

Auburn

While Freeze has a lower buyout than BK, lsu is still ranked, wins a few games...average program.

Auburn meanwhile just went 0-4 in the SEC for the THIRD year in a row. That's insane. Working on their 5th losing season in a row. They literally prayed for Saban to retire...finally happened and they couldn't take advantage of the transition period at big brother at all. Demoralizing.

Florida will be fine with a decent hire.

Auburn, then lsu, then Florida. Florida can rebound overnight

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to me that points to LSU being the answer to the OP's question since the other two are poised to make changes very soon

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I cant believe you are making me defend Kelly, but here we are.

Both Florida and Auburn made, in hindsight, horrible hires the last time they had the opportunity. You can argue AU improved over Harsin with Freeze, but its a wash at best. Kelly, for all his faults, has a much higher floor than either of them. What makes you think UF or AU will make some brilliant hire this time around?

It is a fricking cripple fight, but our 'tard wins.

The “take your two best coaches away” test will kill pretty much any college football program’s resume.

My test for a football program is “what would a bad coach be able to achieve.”

UF used to be great in this test with Muschamp being able to win 11 games, Mac making 2 sec championship games and Mullen getting 3 NY6 bowls and an SEC championship. Billy just showed how low the floor can be, and definitely reset my expectations. We should be better than we’ve been under Billy, but a down year here is going to happen.

Under that test, it’s hard to say many programs are better than LSU. When 3 straight coaches win National Championships, including noted “amazing” coaches like Les and O, it shows that LSU should be able to win no matter the coach.

All? Hiring a coach is like playing the lotto. It is who makes the best hire can rebound the quickest. You have to add FSU in this discussion since those schools are all relative to each other.

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At least Auburn has a cheap buyout and can potentially reset with a young coach. It's obviously a lot easier to do in the NIL era.

LSU is just stuck with a goofball HC that's going to give them late-Les Miles era results at best. That contract and buyout is insane, and the AD that approved it should be fired before Kelly, probably.

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I think LSU is worse shape, UF fired Subelt Billy as that buyout was nothing like what LSU would owe BK. Auburn's is about 20 million which is what Napier's was I think. Auburn can get out of the Freeze Situation easier than LSU can get out of the Kelly.

We are in year 4 of Kelly's tenure and none of his teams would be or going to be in a 12 team playoff.

Lets say the 12 team playoff would have been around in 2005 (Miles 1st year) Miles 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012 teams all make it. The 2009 team if Les does not pull the Clock management fubar vs Ole Miss and LSU hits the FG at the gun, they win that one and go 10-2 with losses to only those loaded Bama and Florida teams (24-15 and 13-3 losses, respectively) and that team makes it.

So Ole Less would have gotten 6 teams in a 12 team playoff, if it were around then and had a 7th that was a playoff caliber team.

BK year 4 only if the 2022 team had won vs. UGA in the SEC title game (which did not happen) would any teams gotten in.

That is the reality for LSU now. We are stuck with BK for at least 1 or 2 more years, looking like 7-5 and 8-4 type teams at best!.

It's all coaching.

Florida had been in SEC since its founding and did not win an SEC title until Spurrier got there. They had some good teams here and there but just couldn't get over the hump.

LSU was bad most of the 90s despite being the only FBS school in that talent rich state. Jamey Howard is still throwing interceptions somewhere.

AU was terrible in late 70s despite having three NFL RBs on the squad. (Back during wishbone days).

All 3 schools can win with the right coach.

Louisiana State

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From Shug Jordan (hired in 1952) up through Gus Malzahn (coached through 2020), Auburn had seven head coaches.

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Jordan was hired in 1951, he went 5-5 that season. Which was a huge improvement from 1950 when Auburn went 0-10.

Auburn has had consecutive 10 win seasons only once in the history of their program. No one has won consistently at Auburn.

While only once in program history has Auburn had consecutive 10 win seasons fourteen times they have had back to back losing seasons.

Since 1951 every Auburn coach but one had at least one losing season. And you fired him after a 6-5 season. Here is how many seasons each coach failed to finish with a winning record.

Jordan: 6
Barfield: 2
Dye: 3
Bowden: 1
Tuberville: 2
Chizik: 1
Malzhan: 0
Harsin: 2 (of 2)
Freeze: 2 (of 2)

Auburn named their stadium after a coach who failed to post a winning record about 25% of the time. Since 1950, the last 75 years, Auburn has had 20 seasons without a winning record. They have had 14 seasons with 10 or more wins during the same time frame.

He was very young as HC at USC. He has matured as shown by his success at Ole Miss. Maybe he is better at programs like Ole Miss. Who knows.