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Who Develops 5-stars the Best? % of 5-stars that are 1st Round Picks, Drafted
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am
Five Star Development - 247 Sports
A few things stick out from those numbers:
quote:
1. Clemson recruits five stars at a much lower rate – at least until recently – than the other programs on this list. But when they land them, they tend to hit. Actually, the Tigers came one pick away (Tee Higgins went No. 33 overall in the 2020 draft) from a 45.5-percent rate with five-star prospects in the first round.
2. Florida, which ranked fourth in 247Sports’ development ratings last week, consistently churned out first-round picks from classes in the early 2010s, even if some of their more recent high-caliber players (Martez Ivey, CeCe Jefferson) busted.
3. Everywhere else, at least among those that recruit a bevy of five stars, have been just middling in development — with the exception of Texas. Ouch.
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Mississippi State recruited a pair of five stars in the Dan Mullen era (Chris Jones – 2nd round | Jeffery Simmons – 1st round) and developed them with success – that speaks well to Florida’s future under Mullens’ direction. Ole Miss, bolstered by a historic 2013 class, had three first-round picks out of seven eligible five stars. Michigan went two for three in terms of qualifying first-round development (Rashan Gary, Jabrill Peppers) in the Jim Harbaugh era. Stanford went two for three as well. Washington (Shaq Thompson), Houston (Ed Oliver) and Pittsburgh (Jonathan Baldwin) all went one-for-one in terms of five-star development in the first round.
On the other end of the spectrum you find teams like Miami (0-of-7), UCLA (1-of-7) and Texas A&M (1-of-8).
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Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
Everyone knows Bama is 5 Star U and NFLU.
Haters gonna hate.
Haters gonna hate.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
Why any 5* player would go to Texas is beyond me at this point, save for proximity.
Basically throwing away your potential doing that.
Basically throwing away your potential doing that.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
Texas, FSU and USC are black holes like I suspected. I think with UT it may be a cultural thing, Austin is not exactly a place that breeds toughness
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:16 am to Mithridates6
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Texas, FSU and USC are black holes like I suspected. I think with UT it may be a cultural thing, Austin is not exactly a place that breeds toughness
54 5-star players have gone to Texas, FSU or USC since 2008
8 have been drafted in the 1st round. 22 weren't drafted AT ALL!
That's insane
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:17 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:18 am to skrayper
A certain set of twin brothers that play OL should really run away from Herman. Not only does Texas not develop five stars in general. It’s especially bad for OL.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
A&M has done a HORRIBLE job at getting 5-stars drafted this past decade.
Mike Sherman: 1 Recruit, 1 Drafted
Christine Michael - 2nd Round 2013 Draft
Kevin Sumlin: 9 Recruits, 3 Drafted
Thomas Johnson - Undrafted (in prison)
Trey Williams - Undrafted
Ricky Seals-Jones - Undrafted
Myles Garrett - 1st Round 2017 Draft
Kyle Allen - Transferred Out, Undrafted
Speedy Noil - Undrafted
Christian Kirk - 2nd Round 2018 Draft
Kyler Murray - Transferred Out, 1st Round
Daylon Mack - 5th Round 2019 Draft
Jimbo Fisher: None are draft eligible yet. The first ones won't be eligible until the 2022 Draft
Mike Sherman: 1 Recruit, 1 Drafted
Christine Michael - 2nd Round 2013 Draft
Kevin Sumlin: 9 Recruits, 3 Drafted
Thomas Johnson - Undrafted (in prison)
Trey Williams - Undrafted
Ricky Seals-Jones - Undrafted
Myles Garrett - 1st Round 2017 Draft
Kyle Allen - Transferred Out, Undrafted
Speedy Noil - Undrafted
Christian Kirk - 2nd Round 2018 Draft
Kyler Murray - Transferred Out, 1st Round
Daylon Mack - 5th Round 2019 Draft
Jimbo Fisher: None are draft eligible yet. The first ones won't be eligible until the 2022 Draft
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:24 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:29 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Speedy Noil- Bum.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Texas, FSU, USC
54 5-star players; 22 [41%] weren't drafted
Indeed, that is absolutely insane.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
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8 have been drafted in the 1st round. 22 weren't drafted AT ALL!
exposes the massive importance of DEVELOPMENT from your coaching staff.
that is an insane stat.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:44 am to CBandits82
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exposes the massive importance of DEVELOPMENT from your coaching staff.
that is an insane stat.
Yep - I mean, 1st round or not can be a variety of issues. The kid isn't quite as good as the star rating, he plays a position that isn't as in need, nagging injuries, etc.
However, 95% of 5-star kids are NFL caliber athletes. Not all of them have NFL caliber worth ethics or brains, but a large majority of those guys should at the very least be drafted. If you aren't getting at least 50-60% of those kids drafted you have some explaining to do.
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:45 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
54 5-star players have gone to Texas, FSU or USC since 2008
8 have been drafted in the 1st round. 22 weren't drafted AT ALL!
That's insane
Recruiting services always overvalue kids from California and Texas.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:57 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Thomas Johnson - Undrafted (in prison)
Damn this guy went from being a 5star with NFL potential to developing schizophrenia and becoming an Axe murderer. Sad story.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It shows Bama has amazing development and that recruiting rankings are junk and should not be taken seriously.
Outside of Bama, only 1 out of every 5 of the 5 star kids actually lives up to the projection. That's pretty abysmal.
Outside of Bama, only 1 out of every 5 of the 5 star kids actually lives up to the projection. That's pretty abysmal.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:18 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Recruiting services always overvalue kids from California and Texas.
That's my feeling as well; ofc it's only one draft but both states produced a ton of NFL picks: per capita Texas was ok and CA was subpar. Most SEC states "punch above their weight" consistently.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:40 pm to Mithridates6
There are large populations of people that aren't football players. Not to paint with broad strokes, but how many asian and hispanic players do see in college and in the nfl? A very significant amount compared to white and black players. Texas's popualation is ~40-45% asian or hispanic. Most SEC states are 1/4 to 1/3 black. That is going to make a difference when you look per capita.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
54 5-star players have gone to Texas, FSU or USC since 2008 8 have been drafted in the 1st round. 22 weren't drafted AT ALL!
Those are all cities where it’s very easy to get with the wrong people. Considering a lot of these players aren’t very high IQ, I would definitely recommend any 5* I had an influence over to go to a college town.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 1:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
A few things stick out from those numbers:
What sticks out to me are...
1. Saban and Swinney are TREMENDOUS recruiters. No surprise there. But some of the others are better than expected. Alabama is doing really really well... Saban can tell top HS talent that if you come, you PROBABLY will be drafted in the first round. That's an incredible stat. Clemson is overachieving on talent better than anyone else, but this must be tempered by the fact that they play in the ACC and get natural playoff advantages and extra games because of it.
2. Florida must be benefiting from the state demographics, because they have had significant coaching turnover during the period covered. And have still signed a great number of top talent. They have most certainly done more with less compared to FSU.
3. MOST of the teams on this list are squandering the talent they are able to sign. SC's latest title runs came well before this talent reporting period. UT and FSU have been pitiful at using their talent. And Georgia is perhaps historically the most underachieving team in college football.
4. I am sort of surprised that LSU has not signed more 5*s given the almost virtual lock in a tremendously talented state. They have done very well with what they have gotten though. Miles and O have both been very solid at recruiting. When Saban or someone else steals someone out of Louisiana, it becomes big news. Miles and O have been that good.
5. One of the biggest overachieving teams is Oklahoma. They are NOT on this list, despite having appeared in the playoff system multiple times and having a great many on-the-field stars (Heismans and high draft picks).
Anyway, JMHO.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 1:26 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
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Jimbo Fisher: None are draft eligible yet.
Refer to all of the comments on FSU ITT.
It's coming.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 5:01 pm to Farmer1906
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A very significant amount compared to white and black players. Texas's popualation is ~40-45% asian or hispanic. Most SEC states are 1/4 to 1/3 black. That is going to make a difference when you look per capita.
Good point. California has always had a large Asian and Hispanic population, Texas' is more recent. May not be PC to talk about it, but those demographics are basically non-contributors in FB. I think California is seeing declining participation across the board, whereas that's probably not the case in TX (you'd know better than me though)
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