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Which schools best convert elite signees to top pro prospects?

Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:07 am
Posted by RelentlessTide
Member since Feb 2020
2906 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:07 am
LINK

1 Alabama 48.6%
2 Florida 42.8%

6 LSU. 15%

8 Auburn 9%
9 Georgia 9%
Posted by AllbyMyRelf
Virginia
Member since Nov 2014
3322 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:08 am to
Mississippi State
Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2463 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:11 am to
How many of those Bama 5 stars were top 5 or top 10 high school recruits? There's a big talent difference between the top 10 high school players and number 20-30. Bama gets alot of those top 5 or 10 guys whereas LSU gets mostly 20-30 guys. Not all 5 stars are created equal.
Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
4047 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:14 am to
Yeah this is stupid. “Converting” a 5 star to a top NFL draft pick should be expected. Tell me who “converts” 1, 2, and 3 stars.
Posted by RelentlessTide
Member since Feb 2020
2906 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:15 am to
The path to the pros is why Bama gets the top 5 or 10 guys. Kind of a virtuous cycle.
Posted by Notclamdip
Member since Mar 2023
940 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:17 am to
Here's more data for you...

LSU was 3rd best and 2nd best overall at getting 4-star and 3-star players drafted. Better than Bama.

LINK
Posted by PeleofAnalytics
Member since Jun 2021
2728 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Yeah this is stupid. “Converting” a 5 star to a top NFL draft pick should be expected.


Did you even read it? This list shows what programs DON'T do what is "expected" with 5 stars compared to others.
Posted by 8nojoke
Jackson, Ala
Member since Feb 2017
45 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:17 am to
quote:

How many of those Bama 5 stars were top 5 or top 10 high school recruits?


We have been told they were only 5 stars due to the 'Bama Bump"
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23040 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:21 am to
quote:

Schools that signed at least 10 Rivals five-stars from 2010 to 2019:



Schools that signed at least 5:



Three schools managed to bat 1.000, with Mississippi State going 2-for-2.
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23040 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 9:32 am to
quote:

4-star and 3-star players
quote:



Posted by mckibaj
Member since Nov 2010
7728 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 10:08 am to
quote:

8 Auburn 9%


I guess Derrick Brown is the one they are counting. Cam Newton would have been in the 2010 class. Surprised Greg Robinson wasn’t a 5 star.
Posted by ManBearSharkReb
Member since Dec 2018
3729 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 10:15 am to
Those results for the 5 stars prove that ratings are meaningless.

Fun exercise is to go back and look at previous recruiting classes and see how the highly rated recruits panned out.

You’ll see names that “everyone wanted” end up at some FCS school.
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23040 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 10:33 am to
quote:

Those results for the 5 stars prove that ratings are meaningless

I get what you're saying, but I wouldn't consider ratings "meaningless."

I think the difficulty is in taking over one-million high school football players, selecting the 6.5% or so that will actually play in college, and then ranking them with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

Of those, only 1.6% will get drafted by the NFL.

So basically every year you're being asked to identify (and then somehow quantify) 800 to 900 of those one-million teenagers that could have an opportunity in a pro league.

As much as we all like to throw shade at the busts, that's really, really, hard.

A concept like RAS or an AI made to do this could revolutionize the process, assuming it would ever actually work — and even then, with perfect inputs, nothing would be absolute.
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4184 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Yeah this is stupid. “Converting” a 5 star to a top NFL draft pick should be expected. Tell me who “converts” 1, 2, and 3 stars.


UGA does with 3-stars. Jordan Davis, Eric Stokes, DeAndre Baker.

UGA has a ton of 4-stars who end up as first rounders. 5-stars for whatever reason are more rare. Sony Michel, Isiah Wilson, Trayvon Walker. We've had a fair number of guys in the second round guys as 5-stars like Tyson Campbell, D'Andre Swift, Mecole Hardman and George Pickens.

We'll see how guys like Nolan Smith, Darnell Washington, Kelee Ringo, Broderick Jones and Jalen Carter do. they're all the 5-stars coming out of UGA this year and all have a chance at the first round (though likely a couple will be in the second).
Posted by captdalton
Member since Feb 2021
8030 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Yeah this is stupid. “Converting” a 5 star to a top NFL draft pick should be expected. Tell me who “converts” 1, 2, and 3 stars.


Two questions. First, if it is a given that 5 star prospects will be top NFL draft picks, why is LSU only seeing that happen once out of every seven 5 star prospects? Second, why do you care about one and two star players? Is LSU signing them? Because with a few exceptions here and there (sorry Vandy and State), other SEC schools are not in any numbers. The number of SEC football players signed every year that aren’t 3 star or better is small. So who cares about the 1 and 2 stars? Are there even 1 star recruits? Hell, maybe I am a 1 star recruit!

Your whole post reeks of ignorance.
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39986 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 11:23 am to
Not very surprising. I'd like to take a look at this again in 5 years with 247 or On3 classes instead to see how UGA stacks up more under Kirby.
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4184 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 11:29 am to
quote:

So who cares about the 1 and 2 stars?



Tae Crowder was a 2-star according to some services. He converted from RB to LB and got drafted (was actually mister irrelevant) Has played in 41 NFL games and started in 31 so far in his career.

Tim Jennings was a 2-star who got a last minute offer from UGA and signed (was going to play for SC State). Ended up as a second round draft pick and played 9 seasons and made two pro-bowls.
Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2463 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 11:32 am to
Those people who say that are stupid.
Posted by OSTiger77
Ocean Springs
Member since Nov 2017
1697 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 12:32 pm to
We have historically, meaning last 2 coaches, had idiots for a head coach. BK is definitely going to change things for the better
Posted by captdalton
Member since Feb 2021
8030 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 12:38 pm to
I wholeheartedly support Georgia signing nothing but 2 star recruits from here on out. Because those two statistical anomalies you provided prove that all you really need is a roster full of 2 star recruits.
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