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re: Week 11 Power Ratings and SEC slate
Posted on 11/8/26 at 9:30 am to skrayper
Posted on 11/8/26 at 9:30 am to skrayper
quote:
I think your system doesn't account for performance against higher caliber opponents, or at least sufficiently enough.
You clearly don't understand how it works. See my past threads for explanation.
quote:
LSU is 0-3 against ranked opponents, losing by an average of 9 points per game. Their scoring output is just 23.7 ppg vs ranked foes as opposed to 43.8 vs unranked.
The model doesn't care about rankings, it is completely blind to rankings. It also doesn't look at stats like points-per-game. It looks at the points you've scored against the teams you've beaten and compares that to what other teams have done against those teams.
quote:
Simply put, LSU has feasted on the weak portions of their schedule but come up flat against the tougher portions. This has caused a lot of the metric-based systems to overvalue them.
Simply put, LSU is well outperforming against these opponents you speak of relative to all other teams against these opponents. Does that make sense?
No one has beaten Clemson the way LSU beat them
No one has beaten A&M the way LSU beat them
The teams who beat Miss St and Auburn the way LSU did are also top tier teams.
Also, these 4 teams are better (nationally) than you think they are. The SEC is very strong this year. It's just eating itself.
Again, I said last week - if LSU is overrated, they will quickly be exposed. LSU was favored last week vs Bama by both Vegas and my model, LSU didn't live up. LSU is again favored over Texas by Vegas and my model. We'll see what happens. If LSU doesn't live up to that expectation, they will fall.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 9:32 am to jchamil
quote:
It’s pretty obvious why your model is complete shite here
How so? Point out what is "obvious"?
Posted on 11/8/26 at 9:38 am to td01241
quote:
Ok simple jack.
Your model is either drunk or your inputs are incredibly retarded.
The fact you’re saying the neutral game spread for a UGA LSU game would be basically UGA -3 is laughable.
Also I can promise you when the Texas LSU line is released Texas will be favored.
Not to mention there’s like 10 other teams below LSU in your garbage statistical analysis that would all easily be favored over LSU on neutral fields.
The UGA spread alone would be at minimum -7.5
Since this comment failed so hard, I'm not going to get a response from you am I?
Anyone else want to have a go? Give your predictions on what you think the spreads will be on next Saturday's SEC games. Give us your genius predictions.
This post was edited on 11/8/26 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/8/26 at 9:43 am to td01241
quote:
Also I can promise you when the Texas LSU line is released Texas will be favored.
found some more for tRetard in this thread.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 3:56 pm to td01241
Updated OP with Vegas spreads.
As suspected, you idiots are totally wrong and the Vegas agrees with tModel - except for Auburn/Miss St game.
As suspected, you idiots are totally wrong and the Vegas agrees with tModel - except for Auburn/Miss St game.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 4:02 pm to MilkJug
I’m impressed. You really put a lot of effort into that rubbish.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 4:05 pm to MilkJug
I’m convinced Vegas is 95+% based on Sagarin’s ratings + a home field advantage.
Texas has a 2 pt lead over LSU this week.
HFA is usually 3.5 ppg, but I think they are adding 3 because it’s a night game, where LSU has proven to be a tougher opponent
Texas -2 + 6.5 = Texas +4.5
Most games fall within a point of this calculation 95% of the time imo. LSU at night would be one of the exceptions.
Texas has a 2 pt lead over LSU this week.
HFA is usually 3.5 ppg, but I think they are adding 3 because it’s a night game, where LSU has proven to be a tougher opponent
Texas -2 + 6.5 = Texas +4.5
Most games fall within a point of this calculation 95% of the time imo. LSU at night would be one of the exceptions.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:47 pm to Smokeyone
quote:I guess it’s impressive to an extent, this MilkJug puts a lot of work in to tModel every week. I just don’t know what purpose it serves anyone?
I’m impressed. You really put a lot of effort into that rubbish.
Posted on 11/8/26 at 8:17 pm to dcbl
quote:
UGA Bama Tenn Ole Miss LSU Kentucky S Carolina Texas Mizzou Oklahoma Florida Auburn State aTm Arkansas Vandy
I would say don’t quit your day job. But with a take like that McDonalds may be your best option. Did you want to let the games actually be played to come up with your rankings? Or were you basing this off some other obscure metric, like my favorite colors?
Posted on 11/9/26 at 8:08 am to RT1941
quote:
I just don’t know what purpose it serves anyone?
If you want to know what the spread would be between any two teams, tModel will tell you. Go to the site and see.
My model has proven itself to you all each week. You can talk all the shite you want, but every week it has been close to Vegas - which means the ratings list that I post would also be close to Vegas if they published one. And they do have one, they just don't show you.
Posted on 11/9/26 at 8:11 am to MilkJug
Posted on 11/9/26 at 10:31 am to RT1941
quote:
I guess it’s impressive to an extent, this MilkJug puts a lot of work in to tModel every week. I just don’t know what purpose it serves anyone?
I honestly thought he lost a bet or something.
Posted on 11/9/26 at 10:33 am to MilkJug
Quite literally the stupidest thing I've ever seen.
Posted on 11/9/26 at 10:51 am to TheTideMustRoll
Texas is hard to put a line on because right now no one knows the real injury status Coleman/Wingo, Simmons, their secondary or any RB not named Brown.
If you have no idea there, you should err towards LSU and shift later in the week as injury information gets updated.
If you have no idea there, you should err towards LSU and shift later in the week as injury information gets updated.
Posted on 11/9/26 at 10:57 am to dcbl
quote:
LSU at 3 is laughable; especially nationally -- LSU is 5th in the SEC (at best)
your ranking method is garbage
It's like OP has never heard of a sanity check on his outputs.
There are infinite models out there, when they get this far off, it's time to revise the model. Instead, it'll be pages of doubling & tripling down on a pile of statistical hog slop
Posted on 11/9/26 at 12:00 pm to Bigdawgb
quote:
It's like OP has never heard of a sanity check on his outputs.
There are infinite models out there, when they get this far off, it's time to revise the model. Instead, it'll be pages of doubling & tripling down on a pile of statistical hog slop
Ok retards. If my ratings list is "way off", then why does it mimic Vegas spreads so closely? The predictions you see are directly based on the ratings list that you see.
Do you think Vegas is "way off"?
LSU - 22.8
Texas - 22.1
(22.8 + 3.3) - 22.1 = LSU 4pt fav (Vegas says 3.5)
Ole Miss - 16.3
Oklahoma - 11.3
16.3 - (11.3 + 3.3) = Ole Miss 1.7pt fav (rounds to 2) (Vegas says 1.5)
Tenn - 17.4
A&M - 10.7
17.4 - (10.7 + 3.3) = Tenn 3.4pt fav (rounds to 3.5) (Vegas says 2.5)
This post was edited on 11/9/26 at 12:08 pm
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