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The bye week effect

Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:44 pm
Posted by gothamdawg
NYC
Member since Nov 2015
1317 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:44 pm
Is real.

Looks like it will have one more victim.
Posted by OleVaught14
Member since Jun 2019
10418 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:45 pm to
2 down. 2 to go.
Posted by JamalMurry27
Tennessee Titans
Member since May 2023
8185 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:45 pm to
good lord......during the season people bitch about opponents having byes before they play......the opponents are pretty even in the tournament.....the 0-5 record will balance in the long run...their will be times when the top 4 roll and then complaining will ensue about that......Bye happens in the nfl as well
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24832 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:48 pm to
Saw Smart address it on media day whenever that was. Being off that long isn’t an advantage and he said his team prepared for it. Curious what all he thinks his team did differently in preparation

Hopefully they fix that in the near future and playoffs start weeks sooner after seeing the effect
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
83375 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

The 4 bye weeks effect


FIFY
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
8350 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:48 pm to
Texas Tech is the underdog.
Posted by AwgustaDawg
CSRA
Member since Jan 2023
13501 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:49 pm to
It’s always been a problem in bowl games. The number of good and elite teams who looked like they had not missed a beat in a month off back when bowl games were the post season can be counted on 2 hands. Almost all bowl games historically had some sign of rust in the first half. UGA looked pretty good against Michigan a few years ago so hopefully the Dawgs don’t follow suit but it won’t be surprising if they are flatter than the beer at a political fund raiser….
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
9613 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:53 pm to
Most people predicted Oregon to win.
Posted by gothamdawg
NYC
Member since Nov 2015
1317 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:54 pm to
A one week bye vs a 4 week bye.

Big difference.
Posted by Mission Impossible
Member since Dec 2025
50 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 12:54 pm to
It's a 4 seed from the Big 12 vs a 5 seed from the Big 10.
Not sure the bye has much to do with this game
Posted by gothamdawg
NYC
Member since Nov 2015
1317 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:19 pm to
Yeah, but there is a 100% correlation up to this point.

Posted by LSUtigerNVegas9
Member since Nov 2025
40 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:20 pm to
Was gonna say the same thing but you beat me to it.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
34528 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Texas Tech is the underdog.


This game was the closest to a push of all the games; hell, ESPN's metric had Tech with a 50.6% chance to win.
Posted by labamafan
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2007
26706 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

exas Tech is the underdog.


Yes but this performance goes beyond just being an underdog. Bama was an underdog. That game was really close until mid 4th qtr.
Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
9923 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

Yeah, but there is a 100% correlation up to this point.


But only one upset of the six (last night).
Posted by gothamdawg
NYC
Member since Nov 2015
1317 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

ESPN's metric had Tech with a 50.6% chance to win.


And they gave Ohio State an 80% chance.

Their prediction algorithm sucks.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
72364 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:29 pm to
Teams with a first round bye were 0-5 all-time going into this game, soon to be 0-6. And if I had to bet on it (which I don’t bet on college football), I’d say chances are good that after the Rose Bowl, they’ll be 0-7.
Posted by gothamdawg
NYC
Member since Nov 2015
1317 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:49 pm to
Maybe they should call it the bye-bye week instead
Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8925 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:50 pm to
Almost like a handicap.
Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
9923 posts
Posted on 1/1/26 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

Teams with a first round bye were 0-5 all-time going into this game, soon to be 0-6. And if I had to bet on it (which I don’t bet on college football), I’d say chances are good that after the Rose Bowl, they’ll be 0-7.


Dude, it’s the rankings not the damn bye week.

Of the 6 bye teams who have lost, FIVE were Vegas dogs heading into their game.
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