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re: Texas A&M vs Mississippi State - StatSim
Posted on 9/30/25 at 12:04 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Posted on 9/30/25 at 12:04 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Let’s see Auburn vs Bye. I’m thinking of taking Bye.
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Posted on 9/30/25 at 12:06 pm to morganwadefan
quote:
Thompson is the best and supposedly the fastest in football.
Has there been a health update on him yet?
Posted on 9/30/25 at 12:51 pm to Realistic Ag
quote:
Has there been a health update on him yet?
No but we are coming in pretty banged up . Tennessee had a more physical defense than i was expecting. Does A&M have any guys banged up after the Auburn game?
Posted on 9/30/25 at 1:49 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
Not that I'm aware of. Scooby Williams (LB) was still mentioned as day-to-day in Elko's press conference. He didn't play against Auburn.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 2:43 pm to Realistic Ag
quote:He is good to go according to his mom.
Has there been a health update on him yet
Posted on 9/30/25 at 3:17 pm to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
Texas A&M vs Mississippi
Wrong team, dumbass.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 3:31 pm to aggressor
quote:
These spreadsheets are interesting though because it looks at stats objectively and generally has been a good indicator. Stats don't play games though.
Yeah, I've tinkered with building systems over the years as I'm sure most have in some form, and the overall metrics to consider are decently predictable after a while.
What doesn't ever seem to correlate week-to-week are the weights (algorithmically) applied to each of those separate metrics.
That is, sometimes you can have a 'perfect' predictive result, but the teams just don't match their expected performance on paper because one of the factors just radically changes significance for whatever reason.
Also, it's possible we're living in a simulation.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 3:34 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Another weird one is Cincinnati being favored over Iowa State. That definitely screams trap line where they’re begging people to take undefeated #14 Iowa State in that one over Cincinnati. Do models actually have Cincinnati winning that game? Spread is Cincy -1.5 but collegefootballpoll site’s computer model says Iowa St should be a 11.5 point favorite
Sagarin
Iowa State 79.63
Cincinnati 75.57 + 5.14 = 80.71
So Sagarin thinks Cinci should be a 1 point favorite at home.. Vegas and Sagarin usually are pretty close.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 3:36 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Dude's name is Fluff Bothwell?!
It's actually a nickname.
His real name is Fluff McGee.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 3:59 pm to Landmass
Brainfart Fixed
Posted on 9/30/25 at 4:35 pm to tide06
quote:
You have Bama - Vandy?
I just think they’re an absolute matchup nightmare for Bama given the injuries up front and don’t understand the line or the O/U unless they see Vandy gashing Bama for explosive plays and Bama smoking Vandy through the air.
Very Hasty stat comparison:
This post was edited on 9/30/25 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 9/30/25 at 5:32 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
This thing was WAY off for the Auburn game.
Was good on point differential but no model can account for refs throwing flags on every little penalty they can find. Kept the score down on both sides.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 5:36 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Thank you for putting this together, much appreciated.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 7:02 pm to Realistic Ag
quote:
Has there been a health update on him yet?
Lebby said he’s not saying anything, that he will let the medical report do the talking (which is due out tomorrow). I’m as worried about Smith and Reese as I am Thompson. Reese is our best blocker on a not good at all OL. Smith is our best defensive player.
Posted on 9/30/25 at 7:45 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Dude's name is Fluff Bothwell?!
If you have watched any of their games, he is a fun watch. Be fun to see what he does against our D, but he is likely to break several tackles.
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