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re: Statistical Game Preview: Texas A&M vs LSU
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:42 am to SpreadsheetAg
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:42 am to SpreadsheetAg
Absolutely terrific analysis here. The only thing I would change or maybe add... would be analyzing the same data but for home games (since A&M will be at home). The 12th man is a powerful factor and could be a deciding factor in a very close game. I understand that part of the formulas take into consideration homefield advantage and the Las Vegas Betting line (which most likely also takes into consideration of home field advantage)… but I guess I'd like to see the data matchup instead of taking the betting line's opinion.
But again, terrific job and best of luck to both teams on Saturday. But I have to say Geaux Tigers!
But again, terrific job and best of luck to both teams on Saturday. But I have to say Geaux Tigers!
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Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:42 am to Farmer1906
quote:
UAB is a quality team.
Yeah, I said that. That's what a roster heavy with upperclassman will do for you.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:43 am to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
The "advantage" means that one team is ranked 20+ spots higher in the national ranking for that statistical category.
You may want to reconsider this rule.
A&M averages almost 100 yards more LSU allows and its not an advantage? Yet A&M allows just 33 more yards rushing and it is an advantage.
Same with pass plays per game. <1 separation.
Just some food for thought. It would probably make it a lot more complicated if you have to add more conditions to the rule.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 1:52 pm to cokebottleag
LSU can’t lose this game. They are my stone cold lead pipe lock this weekend.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 11:44 pm to SpreadsheetAg
the context that is lacking in the stats is that in conference games, a&m's defense will only be the 4th best lsu has faced. otoh, lsu will be one of the better offenses a&m has seen. so, if a&m had faced better offenses and lsu had faced easier defenses, the statistical disparity would be even greater in favor of lsu's offense.
on paper, lsu's offense should have more success against a&m's defense than a&m's offense against lsu's d. special teams - slight lsu advantage. oddshark has lsu 30 a&m 28. i don't think there will be that much scoring. more like 17-14. 20-17. 19-16. but then again, i have been TOTALLY wrong about these things before.
on paper, lsu's offense should have more success against a&m's defense than a&m's offense against lsu's d. special teams - slight lsu advantage. oddshark has lsu 30 a&m 28. i don't think there will be that much scoring. more like 17-14. 20-17. 19-16. but then again, i have been TOTALLY wrong about these things before.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 11:47 pm to bfniii
quote:
otoh, lsu will be one of the better offenses
Wat? Per S&P+, you're the 6th ranked out of 8 conference teams we've played in offense.
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 11:55 pm
Posted on 11/21/18 at 7:52 am to Farmer1906
quote:
So basically LSU is going to need to win the turnover battle by 2 or so to actually win this one.
Status quo...I'll take it.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:02 am to Farmer1906
quote:Exactly. Because formulas in excel always accurately predict the outcome of football games.
So basically LSU is going to need to win the turnover battle by 2 or so to actually win this one.
OP- This is actually pretty cool info. Thanks for sharing.
This post was edited on 11/21/18 at 8:03 am
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:29 am to TheTideMustRoll
What I’m seeing, literally, is that it will be more in the 24-24 or 25-23 range.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:06 am to Farmer1906
quote:
LSU hasn't faced a Rush D as good as A&M's, but MSU and Bama were the closest
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:40 am to GeauxTigerNation
Nooooooooooooooooooooo
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:47 am to SpreadsheetAg
Looks like a defensive battle
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:40 am to SpreadsheetAg
Nice work OP 
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:58 am to SpreadsheetAg
This is great stuff
How accurate have your formulas been at predicting winners this year?
How accurate have your formulas been at predicting winners this year?
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:20 am to Grim
quote:
This is great stuff
How accurate have your formulas been at predicting winners this year?
For the ones I've done this year I am 5 for 5 straight up...
vs UK: 25-23; 25-24 Ags-W (actual 20-14 Ags-W) .. off by about 14 points cumulative
at SCAR: 29-21; 28-24 Ags-W (actual 26-23 Ags-W) .. of by about 4 points cumulative
at MSST: 17-22; 18-23 Ags-L (actual 13-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 10 pts cumulative (that last run by Fitzgerald, uggghhhh)
at AUB: 18-26; 19-25 Ags-L (actual 24-28 Ags-L) .. off by about 8 pts cumulative
vs MS: 37-23; 38-23 Ags-W (actual 38-24 Ags-W) .. off by only 1-2 pts cumulative
In the past, under Sumlin, the swings were big and wide, and I did decently, but it was not nearly so close to the mark. This year under Jimbo, my formulas seem to have dialed in more, probably due to more consistency by the team - making it a tad more reliable to predict.
This post was edited on 11/21/18 at 11:21 am
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:26 am to RoscoeHarper
quote:in conference games, lsu is the 4th best o a&m has seen. however, lsu has played significantly better defenses over the course of the season and beat two of the teams a&m lost to. if lsu had played easier defenses, lsu's o stats would be even better and lsu might only have 1 loss. conversely, a&m has played 3 offenses in the 100's for conference games. move those numbers up and a&m's d stats wouldn't be as impressive.
Per S&P+, you're the 6th ranked out of 8 conference teams we've played in offense
lsu's o is inconsistent, but they have had their moments when they've gotten it done against the best in the sec, even on the road. having said that, i still expect a low scoring game. 17-14, 19-16, 20-17. something like that. two solid defenses. two capable offenses.
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:27 am to SpreadsheetAg
Posted on 11/26/18 at 6:25 pm to SpreadsheetAg
What did y'all think? Pretty close but for a miracle TD by A&M and a defensive TD by LSU (in regulation).
Overtime made this a disaster :)
Overtime made this a disaster :)
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