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State has a lockdown secondary that gives them a chance against Tennessee

Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:26 pm
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
20295 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:26 pm


3 of the top 6 graded corners in the SEC are at State.

Tennessee has the second worst scoring defense in the SEC while State is fourth and should be able to slow Tennessee down a bit. That No.1 passing offense at Tennessee has not faced a passing defense anywhere close to what State will be Saturday night.

State's going to win this game.
Posted by VFL1800FPD
Nashville, TN
Member since Aug 2012
9754 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

State's going to win this game.


Sure, sure.
Posted by Gifman
Member since Jan 2021
16804 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:30 pm to
We haven’t played much of anyone except AZ state. Tenner will test this.
Posted by Tridentds
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
23241 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

State's going to win this game


Dude.


I wouldn't touch State if you gave me 17 points. Tenner going to kick the shite out of State.
Posted by SouthernInsanity
Shadows of Death Valley
Member since Nov 2012
24630 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:36 pm to
Arizona State ran for almost 300yds... and i doubt moo state has played against a QB that seems to be as good as the Aguilar. So worse case is TN runs for over 350.
Posted by Captain Falcon
Member since Apr 2020
856 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:37 pm to
A couple of thoughts on this:

1. I’ve been floored by how much better this secondary is than I expected. Literally thought it might be the worst corner room in the league by a comfortable margin and they’ve definitely been playing well so far.

2. They are going to get tested this weekend unlike they have so far this year. ASU had an NFL quality receiver that they defended well, but UT has more WR depth and I frankly think Aguilar is just a better passer than Sam Leavitt. Leavitt was absolutely awful on deep balls.

3. I think the biggest worry is UT running for 300+ on the ground, and if they do that it probably doesn’t matter what they do through the air. That Will Whitson injury for State just sucks. Totally changed the complexion of that DL.
Posted by Rip Torn
Member since Mar 2020
5464 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:42 pm to
State may win the game because our defense is absolute garbage, however Tennessee is the only team that has played three competent quarterbacks. MSU has faced arguably one and three absolute scrubs. It will likely be a high scoring game
Posted by dcbl
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
31484 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

State's going to win this game.
from your lips to God’s ear…
Posted by Omahawgs15
Member since Mar 2023
6573 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:44 pm to
I think Neal is too high. No one on hogs defense is worth a shite
Posted by Mstate
Birmingham
Member since Nov 2009
10376 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 12:47 pm to
I think TN is a bad matchup for us. They should be able to run at will on our defense.

I do think we can hit some big plays in the passing game to put some points on the board but I’d imagine TN will score around 38-48 range on us and win by a couple scores. Hope I’m wrong
Posted by Smokeyone
Maryville Tn
Member since Jul 2016
20817 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 1:21 pm to
Star can’t lose.
Posted by madmaxvol
Infinity + 1 Posts
Member since Oct 2011
21562 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

Tennessee has the second worst scoring defense in the SEC while State is fourth and should be able to slow Tennessee down a bit. That No.1 passing offense at Tennessee has not faced a passing defense anywhere close to what State will be Saturday night.


Looking at this statistically.

Mississippi State is allowing 129 yards per game passing.

Tennessee is producing 337 yards passing per game.

In their matchups so far, Mississippi State's defense has held opponents to:

Southern Miss - 84 passing yards below their season average
Arizona State - 105 passing yards below their season average
Alcorn State - 52 passing yards below their season average
Northern Illinois - 28 passing yards above their season average

In their matchups so far, Tennessee's defense has held opponents to:

Syracuse - 80 passing yards below their season average
ETSU - 33 passing yards below their season average
Georgia - 43 passing yards above their season average
UAB - 51 yards above their season average

In their matchups so far, Mississippi State's offense has gained:

14 passing yards above Southern Miss' season average allowed
40 passing yards above Arizona State's season average allowed
40 passing yards above Alcorn State's season average allowed
30 passing yards below Northern Illinois' season average allowed

In their matchups so far, Tennessee's offense has gained:

50 passing yards below Syracuse's season average allowed
166 passing yards above ETSU's season average allowed
154 passing yards above Georgia's season average allowed
16 passing yards above UAB's season average allowed


Mississippi State's defense held opponent's offense to:

0.25 passing TDs below Southern Miss' season average
0.5 passing TDs below Arizona St.'s season average
0.33 passing TDs below Alcorn State's season average
0.33 passing TDs below Northern Illinois' season average


Tennessee's defense held opponent's offense to:

3.0 passing TDs below Syracuse's season average
0.25 passing TDs below ETSU's season average
0.33 passing TDs above Georgia's season average
UAB's equaled their season average

For passing touchdowns, Opponent's defense held MSU to:

Southern Miss - 1 passing TD below MSU's season average
Arizona State - 1 passing TD above MSU's season average
Alcorn State - 1 passing TD above MSU's season average
Northern Illinois - 1 passing TD below MSU's season average

For passing touchdowns, Opponent's defense held Tennessee to:

Syracuse - 0.5 passing TDs below UT's season average
ETSU - 0.5 passing TDs above UT's season average
Georgia - 0.5 passing TDs above UT's season average
UAB - 0.5 passing TDs below UT's season average

For passing touchdowns, Mississippi State's offense scored:

0.5 passing TDs above Southern Miss' season average allowed
1.0 passing TDs above Arizona State's season average allowed
0.66 passing TDs above Alcorn State's season average allowed
0.33 passing TDs above Northern Illinois' season average allowed

For passing touchdowns, Tennessee's offense scored:

0.75 passing TDs above Syracuse's season average allowed
1.5 passing TDs above ETSU's season average allowed
3.0 passing TDs above Georgia's season average allowed
0.5 passing TDs above UAB's season average allowed


So, what does that mean? I don't know...but it sure is a lot of numbers...
Posted by Rrrrroger
Member since Mar 2021
893 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

That No.1 passing offense at Tennessee has not faced a passing defense anywhere close to what State will be Saturday night.




Guess we will just run the ball for 300 yards instead
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
99751 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 1:58 pm to
We need the DL to step up and get a little bit of pressure though
Posted by SECCaptain
Member since Jun 2025
1134 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:10 pm to
You somehow overlooked the fact that they're rated 59th in RDEF and run a 3-3-5 stack, Tenner's going to run for 300 yards. Also coverage really doesn't work against Brazzell

Having said that, year 2 head coach and teams run the same offense so the defenses are v familiar with defending the scheme. Anyone betting this game is a fool
This post was edited on 9/22/25 at 2:53 pm
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
12853 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:22 pm to
state is going to need to settle into a 4 man front for this one. if our secondary is good, rely on them. maybe it isnt as good as it appears, maybe it is, but we have to focus on not losing at the line of scrimmage and that means no 3 man fronts.
Posted by Cdawg
TigerFred's Living Room
Member since Sep 2003
61385 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

That No.1 passing offense at Tennessee has not faced a passing defense anywhere close to what State will be Saturday night.

State's going to win this game.

Why pass? All they have to do is run the ball against State. It's going to get ugly for State.
Posted by mudshuvl05
Member since Nov 2023
2675 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:31 pm to
Tenner is going to run it down our throat for 60 minutes and there won't be a damn thing we can do about it.

Won't matter what the secondary does, they're going to gash us.

Like Hadad said on the radio: 4-0 is as good of a start as you can get, but by no means does it mean State is about to make a run. We have glaring issues, not the least of which is our defensive front. I think this year will be worse than last year. Tenner will quell our spirit a bit after Saturday. They can't lose.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
7205 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:32 pm to
I think its fair to say "State is uniquely positioned to punch above their weight in this game".

I do not think they will win.

Wouldn't surprise me though. I'm probably more concerned with this game than I am Florida or Arkansas right now, which is still "not very".
Posted by Captain Falcon
Member since Apr 2020
856 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 2:34 pm to
Tennessee is going to get plenty of yards. Going to be a matter of if State can hold them to FG’s or get 4th down stops.

That’s the thing I will give this State D credit for..:. They’ve been susceptible to the run but it hasn’t really translated to giving up a lot of points. That goal line stand against ASU at the end of a 95 yard drive was probably the difference in State winning and losing the game.


NIU ran pretty well on State, but only 10 points and the lone TD was on a drive that started inside State’s 30.

Certainly the Vols are the best offense State will have seen. But the hope is you can force just enough mistakes from a UT team playing in their first true road game (yes I’m aware there will be plenty of orange in Starkville, but it still should be a predominantly State crowd).
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