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re: SEC QB Ratings vs Blitz/No-Blitz and Pressure/No Pressure
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
f you are wondering, yes you did read it right. Jalen Milroe is both better under pressure than not under pressure and also better unblitzed than blitzed.
There are specific reasons for that, but it is a hilarious combination of stats to just glance at.
Blitzing Milroe is going to lead to some sort of big play in all liklihood - 6.3% turnover worthy throw, 10.0% big throw rate, 16.7% sack. 10.2 YPA. NO BORING CHECKDOWNS IN THIS HOOD.
I've wondered why opposing coaches even bother to dial up blitzes against Bama. I would rush three or four and drop the rest into coverage. Bama (Milroe) has taken a sack on multiple occasions against a three or four man rush.
When he has time to think about it or has to go through progressions, he melts.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:37 pm
1
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:38 pm to TS1926
quote:
I've wondered why opposing coaches even bother to dial up blitzes against Bama. I would rush three or four and drop the rest into coverage. Bama (Milroe) has taken a sack on multiple occasions against a three or four man rush.
Agreed - if you have an even somewhat decent rush end I'd send 3/4, have 1 LB as a spy and drop 6-7 in coverage and make Jalen throw 5-7 yard throws. One thing that prevents that is that sort of defensive strategy opens itself up to the run game since you have to treat the QB as a RB in the read game and you are outnumbered.
I honestly think this is exactly how the game Saturday is going to play out strategy wise, and my hope is we attempt to run right at it and force them to bring a LB back on the field or bring a safety down.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:39 pm to BayouCowboy
This made me laugh ??
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
my hope is we attempt to run right at it and force them to bring a LB back on the field or bring a safety down.
Hopefully the emergence of Perkins as one of our better pass defenders while also being able to be a decent enough run defenders gives us flexibility.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:44 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
One thing that prevents that is that sort of defensive strategy opens itself up to the run game since you have to treat the QB as a RB.
I'm afraid we've gotten by on the "hype" that Milroe is some kind of great running threat. Frankly, from what I've seen I don't buy it. He's either afraid to pull the trigger. He seems hesitant on when to pull and go or find the open guy. Many times he ends up with neither.
In addition, he doesn't seem to have a lot of shiftiness or elusiveness in his running style. It's mostly just straight ahead, decent but not great speed. He's gotten by so far on reputation.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:44 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Sooooo, we should blitz a lot but not actually pressure Milroe is what you're saying
You sound as confused as I’ve been watching him all season.
He drops back and I have no expectations whatsoever.
He’s somehow more accurate on deep throws than short or intermediate and although he’s one of the fastest QBs in the country hasn’t been particularly effective as a runner.
He’s like dating a hot girl with big ankles, you just aren’t sure how it’s gonna turnout long term.
If he keeps after it and improves his footwork he’ll be Jalen Hurts, if not he’ll be benched at some point next year most likely.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:46 pm to TS1926
quote:
I'm afraid we've gotten by on the "hype" that Milroe is some kind of great running threat. Frankly, from what I've seen I don't buy it. He's either afraid to pull the trigger. He seems hesitant on when to pull and go or find the open guy. Many times he ends up with neither.
In addition, he doesn't seem to have a lot of shiftiness or elusiveness in his running style. It's mostly just straight ahead, decent but not great speed. He's gotten by so far on reputation.
He's not a great running threat on the RPO (he's terrible at reading it) or scrambling (he's the worst scrambler I've ever seen in terms of making a decision and taking off at full speed), but he is very much a run threat when straight run plays are called and isn't making any decisions on WHETHER to run or not. And because of that, defenses have to respect it with their alignments.
Jalen as a scrambler/RPO QB is like a different person than Jalen on QB powers or sweeps. I don't get it at all, but it clearly has to do with making decisions vs just running the ball like a RB.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:47 pm to tide06
quote:
You sound as confused as I’ve been watching him all season.
He drops back and I have no expectations whatsoever.
Exactly - these nonsensical stats almost perfectly explain what it is like to watch him play QB for your team
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:48 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
So the key is to blitz Milroe, but not pressure him.
I think we can do that.
Corner blitz a lot or bring a safety. He never picks it up.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:50 pm to TS1926
quote:
Corner blitz a lot or bring a safety. He never picks it up.
And when he does, he panics and makes a decision before the pressure even arrives, which explains the blitz vs pressure difference.
Blitzes off the edge that aren't picked up almost always end in sacks or bad decisions. However, blitzes that are picked up generally lead to him throwing the ball 60 yards down field.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
but he is very much a run threat when straight run plays are called and isn't making any decisions on WHETHER to run or not. And because of that, defenses have to respect it with their alignments.
Jalen as a scrambler/RPO QB is like a different person than Jalen on QB powers or sweeps. I don't get it at all, but it clearly has to do with making decisions vs just running the ball like a RB.
I agree. Even as the ball carrier in a straight run play he is a threat as you say.
As for RPOs, I wish he could get a handle on that element of the game. There was an RPO play in the Tennessee game where he handed off to the RB and the play was stuffed. He if just kept the ball he probably takes it the 25+ yards needed for a TD. Later in the game, the same setup and this time he keeps it for a big play. If Bama, Milroe, could get this element of the game down, Bama would have a formidable offense in my opinion.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:56 pm to TS1926
quote:
As for RPOs, I wish he could get a handle on that element of the game. There was an RPO play in the Tennessee game where he handed off to the RB and the play was stuffed. He if just kept the ball he probably takes it the 25+ yards needed for a TD. Later in the game, the same setup and this time he keeps it for a big play. If Bama, Milroe, could get this element of the game down, they would become a formidable offense in my opinion.
Totally agree - it's maddening how bad he is at making those reads (and is clearly a reason why we don't do it more). If he started putting his foot in the ground when he had a big seam on pass plays and reading the RPO correctly, he could legitimately be a Top 5 QB nationally, even with the accuracy issues.
Hopefully an offseason with experience and specific things to work on will help him improve that stuff. It's certainly not impossible.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 2:01 pm to tide06
quote:
He’s somehow more accurate on deep throws than short or intermediate and although he’s one of the fastest QBs in the country hasn’t been particularly effective as a runner.
Is 4.6 in the forty considered fast for a QB? Milroe was officially clocked 4.64 40 yard dash.
LINK
Edit to say: It's plenty fast for a QB. Not Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson and not even Russell Wilson but slightly faster than Deshaun Watson.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:32 pm to TS1926
quote:
Is 4.6 in the forty considered fast for a QB? Milroe was officially clocked 4.64 40 yard dash.
He looked a hell of a lot faster than 4.6 against Arkansas last season so lets just say I question that number.
I suspect he plays slower than that because he's not seeing the field well as someone above mentioned so he's like a sprinter getting a very slow start off the blocks.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:39 pm to tide06
quote:
You sound as confused as I’ve been watching him all season.
He drops back and I have no expectations whatsoever.
He’s somehow more accurate on deep throws than short or intermediate and although he’s one of the fastest QBs in the country hasn’t been particularly effective as a runner.
He’s like dating a hot girl with big ankles, you just aren’t sure how it’s gonna turnout long term.
If he keeps after it and improves his footwork he’ll be Jalen Hurts, if not he’ll be benched at some point next year most likely.
Honestly a lot of this can just be 1st year starting QB issues. I say that as I watched Daniels last year be so far up and down but this year is elite. Burrow was up and down in 2018 and in 2019 was elite. This isnt to say Milroe will be elite for sure in 2024 but a lot of players just need to learn on the job for a while before figuring things out.
Dillion Gabriel at OU was up and down in 2022 and this season is much more consistently good.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:42 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
mean it is PRO football focus
Talking about college players
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Sorry to get off topic but I'm surprised at how solid Brady Cook is across the board.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:46 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
So the key is to blitz Milroe, but not pressure him.
I think we can do that.
We specialize in bringing pressure that never makes it to the quarterback. Very very good at getting near the quarterback and then letting him escape.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:48 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Talking about college players
But they are using a subjective analysis method to evaluate their potential abilities as pros.
Some examples of how they do this is they dont count intentional throwaways in their evaluations. They dont count WR drops against the QB. If the ball was catchable, it goes as a good throw for the QB. If the ball was delivered on time and in the correct spot, that throw gets a better rating even if WR drops it. Likewise, if a QB makes a bad throw saved by a great WR catch, the throw goes as a bad throw and not a highly rated successful throw for the QB.
They aren't just a basic stats driven group. They are trying to weed out the crap from the college game to provide more apples/apples comparison to pro players.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 3:55 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Honestly a lot of this can just be 1st year starting QB issues. I say that as I watched Daniels last year be so far up and down but this year is elite. Burrow was up and down in 2018 and in 2019 was elite. This isnt to say Milroe will be elite for sure in 2024 but a lot of players just need to learn on the job for a while before figuring things out.
Agree - I do think a lot of it is just lack of experience and lack of confidence in what he is seeing.
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