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SEC QB Ratings vs Blitz/No-Blitz and Pressure/No Pressure
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:05 pm
Per PFF Stats (out of 182 FBS QBs with 4 games played and 30 drop backs)
QB Rating - Blitzed
3. Jayden Daniels (LSU) (149.0)
11. Ken Seals (Vandy) (130.3)
21. Brady Cook (Mizzou) (121.2)
22. Conner Weigman (A&M) (120.8)
23. Spencer Rattler (USC) (119.4)
36. Graham Mertz (UF) (112.3)
39. Jaxson Dart (Miss) (111.1)
41. Will Rogers (State) (109.2)
42. Carson Beck (UGA) (108.8)
44. Payton Thorne (AUB) (107.6)
67. KJ Jefferson (ARK) (99.1)
71. Devin Leary (UK) (98.0)
82. AJ Swann (Vandy) (94.3)
84. Jalen Milroe (Bama) (94.2)
99. Max Johnson (A&M) (90.2)
120. Joe Milton III (VOLS) (81.4)
126. Robby Ashford (AUB) (79.4)
131. Mike Wright (State) (77.1)
QB Rating - No Blitz
5. Milroe (130.1)
6. Daniels (127.4)
14. Beck (115.4)
17. Mertz (114.9)
24. Cook (110.7)
29. Dart (108.5)
36. Milton (104.6)
81. Jefferson (90.4)
97. Johnson (86.6)
98. Weigman (86.4)
103. Leary (85.1)
107. Ashford (83.9)
111. Rattler (83.1)
113. Rogers (82.2)
116. Seals (80.9)
129. Thorne (78.1)
131. Swann (77.7)
136. Wright (76.6)
QB Rating - No Pressure
4. Daniels (139.4)
20. Cook (120.5)
21. Mertz (119.0)
24. Weigman (117.1)
26. Dart (116.6)
30. Beck (115.5)
37. Rattler (114.3)
45. Johnson (111.6)
48. Seals (111.2)
55. Milroe (109.3)
61. Leary (106.9)
74. Rogers (104.4)
80. Jefferson (102.8)
89. Milton (100.8)
120. Swann (91.7)
122. Thorne (90.4)
151. Wright (81.6)
155. Ashford (80.6)
QB Rating - Pressured
2. Daniels (139.2)
3. Milroe (126.6)
13. Mertz (94.0)
14. Beck (93.8)
17. Weigman (92.0)
20. Cook (88.6)
20. Dart (88.6)
30. Milton (82.5)
44. Asfhord (79.2)
55. Thorne (73.6)
62. Seals (72.3)
78. Wright (63.1)
79. Rattler (63.0)
89. Johnson (59.3)
91. Jefferson (58.3)
113. Rogers (53.2)
120. Swann (48.8)
144. Leary (41.3)
QB Rating - Blitzed
3. Jayden Daniels (LSU) (149.0)
11. Ken Seals (Vandy) (130.3)
21. Brady Cook (Mizzou) (121.2)
22. Conner Weigman (A&M) (120.8)
23. Spencer Rattler (USC) (119.4)
36. Graham Mertz (UF) (112.3)
39. Jaxson Dart (Miss) (111.1)
41. Will Rogers (State) (109.2)
42. Carson Beck (UGA) (108.8)
44. Payton Thorne (AUB) (107.6)
67. KJ Jefferson (ARK) (99.1)
71. Devin Leary (UK) (98.0)
82. AJ Swann (Vandy) (94.3)
84. Jalen Milroe (Bama) (94.2)
99. Max Johnson (A&M) (90.2)
120. Joe Milton III (VOLS) (81.4)
126. Robby Ashford (AUB) (79.4)
131. Mike Wright (State) (77.1)
QB Rating - No Blitz
5. Milroe (130.1)
6. Daniels (127.4)
14. Beck (115.4)
17. Mertz (114.9)
24. Cook (110.7)
29. Dart (108.5)
36. Milton (104.6)
81. Jefferson (90.4)
97. Johnson (86.6)
98. Weigman (86.4)
103. Leary (85.1)
107. Ashford (83.9)
111. Rattler (83.1)
113. Rogers (82.2)
116. Seals (80.9)
129. Thorne (78.1)
131. Swann (77.7)
136. Wright (76.6)
QB Rating - No Pressure
4. Daniels (139.4)
20. Cook (120.5)
21. Mertz (119.0)
24. Weigman (117.1)
26. Dart (116.6)
30. Beck (115.5)
37. Rattler (114.3)
45. Johnson (111.6)
48. Seals (111.2)
55. Milroe (109.3)
61. Leary (106.9)
74. Rogers (104.4)
80. Jefferson (102.8)
89. Milton (100.8)
120. Swann (91.7)
122. Thorne (90.4)
151. Wright (81.6)
155. Ashford (80.6)
QB Rating - Pressured
2. Daniels (139.2)
3. Milroe (126.6)
13. Mertz (94.0)
14. Beck (93.8)
17. Weigman (92.0)
20. Cook (88.6)
20. Dart (88.6)
30. Milton (82.5)
44. Asfhord (79.2)
55. Thorne (73.6)
62. Seals (72.3)
78. Wright (63.1)
79. Rattler (63.0)
89. Johnson (59.3)
91. Jefferson (58.3)
113. Rogers (53.2)
120. Swann (48.8)
144. Leary (41.3)
11
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If you are wondering, yes you did read it right. Jalen Milroe is both better under pressure than not under pressure and also better unblitzed than blitzed.
There are specific reasons for that, but it is a hilarious combination of stats to just glance at.
Blitzing Milroe is going to lead to some sort of big play in all liklihood - 6.3% turnover worthy throw, 10.0% big throw rate, 16.7% sack. 10.2 YPA. NO BORING CHECKDOWNS IN THIS HOOD.
There are specific reasons for that, but it is a hilarious combination of stats to just glance at.
Blitzing Milroe is going to lead to some sort of big play in all liklihood - 6.3% turnover worthy throw, 10.0% big throw rate, 16.7% sack. 10.2 YPA. NO BORING CHECKDOWNS IN THIS HOOD.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting. Problem is we cannot consistently generate the pressure with our current DL and LB rooms.
Frick
Frick
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Harold Perkins: "should i stay or should i go now"
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
QB Rating - Blitzed
quote:
84. Jalen Milroe (Bama) (94.2)
blitz his arse!
quote:
QB Rating - No Blitz
5. Milroe (130.1)
wait...
quote:
QB Rating - No Pressure
quote:
89. Milton (100.8)
i give up just stop the run
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
QB Rating - Blitzed
quote:
84. Jalen Milroe (Bama) (94.2)
quote:
QB Rating - Pressured
quote:
3. Milroe (126.6)
Sooooo, we should blitz a lot but not actually pressure Milroe is what you're saying
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
QB Rating - Pressured 2. Daniels (139.2) 3. Milroe (126.6)
LetKs look inside the stat. These are the two fastest QBs in the conference. Maybe they’re ticking and running unless someone is REALLY wide open. Still very impressive #s from Daniels all the way around. It certainly helps to have two sure fire NFL Sunday starters at WR as well.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I hate how pff doesn’t use the college passer rating formula
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
So the key is to blitz Milroe, but not pressure him.
I think we can do that.
I think we can do that.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:16 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
Topwater Trout
The reasoning for it is two-fold.
(1) Jalen has made most his mistakes either panicking off a blitz or when he has too much time to throw and convinces himself there is something there. Neither of those are really pressure scenarios.
(2) A lot of his pressures lead to sacks (like 30% or something, Top 10-15 nationally) because of his abysmal pocket presence/scrambling, so his QB rating doesn't paint the entire picture on pressures because a sack doesn't even equate into QB Rating.
When he is pressured but able to step up in the pocket and let his WRs run their routes he is as deadly as anybody in the country. But he also outthinks himself in other situations.
Inexperienced and raw player to say the least.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
There are specific reasons for that, but it is a hilarious combination of stats to just glance at.
Can I get a breakdown of how this statistical anomaly is possible?
Edit: nvm, I see your explanation above.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:17 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
LetKs look inside the stat. These are the two fastest QBs in the conference. Maybe they’re ticking and running unless someone is REALLY wide open. Still very impressive #s from Daniels all the way around. It certainly helps to have two sure fire NFL Sunday starters at WR as well.
Daniels is, I think. Milroe unfortunately refuses to scramble as if he's Peyton Manning. He hits some big throws because of it (good), but he also gets sacked on like 30% of his pressures (bad).
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:17 pm to djsdawg
quote:
I hate how pff doesn’t use the college passer rating formula
I mean it is PRO football focus
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:17 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
So the key is to blitz Milroe, but not pressure him.
LSU defense:
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:19 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
Can I get a breakdown of how this statistical anomaly is possible?
A lot of blitzes don't actually lead to pressures with Jalen (except for blindside ones that 100% end in sacks), just quick bad decisions (turnover throw, bad pass, quick throw away, etc) or they lead to sacks (which don't hit QB Rating). Blitzes, if done well, can mess with what he thinks he sees and make him make a bad decision. Ironically, just sitting back in zone coverage and letting him look and look and look and look can do the exact same thing. Everything in between those 2 options he's pretty damn good at.
For him a pressure means the WRs have had time to run deep routes and he throws a great deep ball, so any pressure that doesn't end in a sack generally means he is ripping one to a WR one on one down the field. He very rarely if ever throws check downs, for better or worse.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Blitzing Milroe is going to lead to some sort of big play in all liklihood - 6.3% turnover worthy throw, 10.0% big throw rate, 16.7% sack. 10.2 YPA. NO BORING CHECKDOWNS IN THIS HOOD.
So, let me get this straight:
Blitzing Milroe works, unless it generates pressure?
WTF?
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:27 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
So, let me get this straight:
Blitzing Milroe works, unless it generates pressure?
WTF?
*unless it generates pressure that doesn't lead to a sack
If you are gonna get after him, you better sack him (and that happens a lot). If he is pressured but able to stay in the pocket and uncork, odds are good he's gonna find somebody way down the field and put it on the money.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
There are specific reasons for that, but it is a hilarious combination of stats to just glance at.
I assurm when he’s under pressure it’s either a sack or a lot of 1 on 1 deep balls to take advantage of numbers.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'll add this in for context
% of Blitzes that lead to Sack
9. Ashofrd (20.0%)
13. Jefferson (17.9%)
18. Milroe (16.7%)
26. Thorne (13.4%)
35. Rattler (12.2%)
54. Rogers (9.6%)
54. Mertz (9.6%)
56. Cook (9.5%)
63. Seals (9.3%)
75. Leary (8.5%)
78. Dart (8.2%)
88. Daniels (7.1%)
110. Swann (5.7%)
110. Beck (5.7%)
135. Milton (4.5%)
154. Weigman (3.7%)
154. Johnson (3.7%)
163. Wright (3.0%)
% of Pressures that lead to Sack
2. Milroe (35.8%)
4. Thorne (34.7%)
7. Jefferson (33.3%)
21. Rogers (28.0%)
35. Mertz (24.4%)
49. Rattler (23.1%)
55. Dart (22.0%)
57. Daniels (21.9%)
60. Ashford (21.4%)
87. Milton (19.1%)
94. Cook (18.5%)
100. Leary (18.1%)
107. Swann (16.7%)
129. Seals (13.5%)
132. Beck (13.3%)
140. Johnson (12.8%)
Technically the last one should be reversed as not taking sacks should "rank high" but you get the point.
% of Blitzes that lead to Sack
9. Ashofrd (20.0%)
13. Jefferson (17.9%)
18. Milroe (16.7%)
26. Thorne (13.4%)
35. Rattler (12.2%)
54. Rogers (9.6%)
54. Mertz (9.6%)
56. Cook (9.5%)
63. Seals (9.3%)
75. Leary (8.5%)
78. Dart (8.2%)
88. Daniels (7.1%)
110. Swann (5.7%)
110. Beck (5.7%)
135. Milton (4.5%)
154. Weigman (3.7%)
154. Johnson (3.7%)
163. Wright (3.0%)
% of Pressures that lead to Sack
2. Milroe (35.8%)
4. Thorne (34.7%)
7. Jefferson (33.3%)
21. Rogers (28.0%)
35. Mertz (24.4%)
49. Rattler (23.1%)
55. Dart (22.0%)
57. Daniels (21.9%)
60. Ashford (21.4%)
87. Milton (19.1%)
94. Cook (18.5%)
100. Leary (18.1%)
107. Swann (16.7%)
129. Seals (13.5%)
132. Beck (13.3%)
140. Johnson (12.8%)
Technically the last one should be reversed as not taking sacks should "rank high" but you get the point.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 1:30 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
I assurm when he’s under pressure it’s either a sack or a lot of 1 on 1 deep balls to take advantage of numbers.
100%
You are basically playing Russian Roulette. You will get to him 20-30% of the time and he'll hit a 50 yard TD pass 10-15% of the time.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 1:34 pm
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