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Realignment Can the PAC survive
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:06 pm
How long does the PAC last? Their contract extensions are up in a couple of years. Is their any logical reason USC and Oregon would sign the extension when they could go to the BIG and double their money?
What's the odds that they don't send an SOS signal to the BIG in the next year, if they haven't already?..
Will USC or Stanford be the next Big Bad Conference killing Texas of the West?
What's the odds that they don't send an SOS signal to the BIG in the next year, if they haven't already?..
Will USC or Stanford be the next Big Bad Conference killing Texas of the West?
This post was edited on 8/4/21 at 1:10 pm
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Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:09 pm to Ttazhorn
The SEC just made the Pac stronger. Their odds of getting teams into the playoffs just increased big time.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:15 pm to Ttazhorn
At this point, I’m wondering if they even want to. Those schools seem to be so ate up with virtue signaling that they’d rather not even field football teams. I hope they do survive, however, because after the SEC and the really big Big 10 games (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Penn St, etc), the Pac 12 is my favorite conference to watch. Theres plenty of parity with just enough sloppiness to make games fun and interesting without making them look like a bunch of losers.
I just don’t know how they can compete nationally without being able to grab Texas. It seems like there’s just not enough good money teams adjacent to their footprint without the longhorns. Let’s see the teams even potentially available to them if UT and OU end up in the SEC and Iowa St and Kansas go to the Big 10:
BYU
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Okie St
Kansas St
Boise St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Colorado St
Hawaii
Nevada
UNLV
Wyoming
New Mexico
They’d have to find 4 teams out of that list to make it worthwhile. The only consistently competitive teams in football I see are BYU, Texas Tech, Okie St, and Boise St. that’s a lot of mediocrity, academic hubris, and political handwringing (mostly with respect to religious schools like BYU, Baylor, and TCU) to sort through.
I just don’t know how they can compete nationally without being able to grab Texas. It seems like there’s just not enough good money teams adjacent to their footprint without the longhorns. Let’s see the teams even potentially available to them if UT and OU end up in the SEC and Iowa St and Kansas go to the Big 10:
BYU
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Okie St
Kansas St
Boise St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Colorado St
Hawaii
Nevada
UNLV
Wyoming
New Mexico
They’d have to find 4 teams out of that list to make it worthwhile. The only consistently competitive teams in football I see are BYU, Texas Tech, Okie St, and Boise St. that’s a lot of mediocrity, academic hubris, and political handwringing (mostly with respect to religious schools like BYU, Baylor, and TCU) to sort through.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:17 pm to 3down10
I don't think getting a team into the Playoff every other year to lose by 4 TD's is going to help much.
PAC is in trouble for sure. The key point will be when a couple of the schools push the panic button and bail out or if the B1G goes to them and decides to merge and probably drop a few schools in the process.
The most foolish thing they could do would be to add some of the Big 12 leftover schools, that will only accelerate the end of the Conference.
I think the longterm is going to be a Pac12/B1G merger and an SEC/ACC merger of sorts with a lot of schools left without a chair. It won't happen tomorrow but that's where it is headed.
PAC is in trouble for sure. The key point will be when a couple of the schools push the panic button and bail out or if the B1G goes to them and decides to merge and probably drop a few schools in the process.
The most foolish thing they could do would be to add some of the Big 12 leftover schools, that will only accelerate the end of the Conference.
I think the longterm is going to be a Pac12/B1G merger and an SEC/ACC merger of sorts with a lot of schools left without a chair. It won't happen tomorrow but that's where it is headed.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:21 pm to 3down10
quote:
The SEC just made the Pac stronger. Their odds of getting teams into the playoffs just increased big time.
What if the playoff doesn't expand and stays at 4 teams?
I see the PAC has a better shot now to get a team in, but if it stays at 4, they are still the little brother of the P4 conferences. SEC could easily take 2 spots every year.
This post was edited on 8/4/21 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:23 pm to Ttazhorn
USC/Oregon could do a football only kind of agreement.
But the travel logistics/cost would be too much for the remaining sports not to have a proximity league.
But the travel logistics/cost would be too much for the remaining sports not to have a proximity league.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:23 pm to Ttazhorn
quote:
How long does the PAC last?
I suspect we're watching college football break apart, at least for a while. I don't think the PAC collapses because they are there. Same as the BIG, same as the ACC.
I think the Big 12 is losing here for nothing more than geography. They're the conference in the middle. Just an awful position to be in.
All this talk of super-conferences and twelve team playoffs sounds premature. I think we're going toward PAC vs BIG, and ACC vs SEC again. And yes, I do say again. Because that's how it split back in the 80s, when we had the CFA. Two conferences chose to stay with the NCAA - the BIG and the PAC. History doesn't always repeat. But it usually rhymes.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:30 pm to ScoggDog
Football on the left coast is done. They just haven't buried them yet.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:31 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
the Pac can dominate the Olympic Sports
football, RIP
football, RIP
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:32 pm to aggressor
quote:
I think the longterm is going to be a Pac12/B1G merger and an SEC/ACC merger of sorts with a lot of schools left without a chair. It won't happen tomorrow but that's where it is headed.
I agree, or the SEC could just stay as is. They are pretty dang strong financially with the addition of OU and Texas and don't need to water down the product. If Notre Dame came knocking then you don't turn them away...
I think the BIG 12 leftovers should also hold tight, if they can hold the AAC at bay from raiding them. See what happens in the next year, there could be some decent schools for them to add if realignment spreads to other conferences..
This post was edited on 8/4/21 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:32 pm to 3down10
quote:
The SEC just made the Pac stronger. Their odds of getting teams into the playoffs just increased big time.
The relative strength of the SEC might however compel voters to put 1- and 2-loss SEC teams against PAC teams with better records.
In fact, that's generally been the case since BCS era.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:40 pm to Ttazhorn
quote:
I agree, or the SEC could just stay as is.
And I agree with your agree. I don't know if it's a merge - don't think it will be - but the SEC and ACC will square off at the end of the year. And I think the PAC and BIG will do the same.
Which was how it used to be. I do not think for a minute that ANY of these conferences are going to 32 teams like the NFL. But I think they're all destined to pick up a few members from what used to be the Big 12.
And that's OK. Different conferences, each calling their own shots, is the only reason we had college football last year.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:44 pm to kingbob
quote:
the Pac 12 is my favorite conference to watch. Theres plenty of parity with just enough sloppiness to make games fun and interesting without making them look like a bunch of losers.
Don’t forget the best part about the PAC: games kicking off as you walk in the door after you’ve bar-hopped after your game for a few hours.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 1:49 pm to Ttazhorn
The PAC's TV network (or lack thereof) is what's going to boat anchor them.
If they can't get some serious dollars coming in the name brands will join the B1G.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 2:13 pm to Ttazhorn
The PAC just hired a new commissioner with a strong background in digital marketing and is looking into addressing the PAC network and a TV deal in the next 6-12 months. Their TV deal expires in 2024 so they really have a year at most to sink or swim. It sucks that their most storied schools are crippled by being in California.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 2:25 pm to aggressor
quote:
I don't think getting a team into the Playoff every other year to lose by 4 TD's is going to help much.
I think it's helped Oklahoma.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 2:31 pm to Ttazhorn
Why do we even care?
Posted on 8/4/21 at 2:34 pm to LRB1967
I think the PAC needs an expanded playoff more than it needs new teams. That will drive fan interest the most, the fact that they have a path to the playoff.
Then, if their ratings go up after some time, maybe expanding into the central time zone would make sense with more eyeballs.
Then, if their ratings go up after some time, maybe expanding into the central time zone would make sense with more eyeballs.
Posted on 8/4/21 at 2:41 pm to 3down10
quote:
The SEC just made the Pac stronger. Their odds of getting teams into the playoffs just increased big time.
But they won't be able to compete in the long term if their schools are only pulling in around $35 mil a year in tv revenue, when the SEC schools are pulling in $80 to $90 mil a year. There is just too much of a revenue gap.
The decent PAC schools' (USC, Oregon, Washington, & maybe UCLA) only real chance is to join the B1G, and maybe then the B1G would be able to get close to the SEC in tv revenue. But there is no way that ESPN, Fox, or any other network is going to pay top dollar for the Pac 12 when most of their own fan bases don't even care about football (not to even mention the timezone they play in).
This post was edited on 8/4/21 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 8/4/21 at 3:01 pm to Bamatab
quote:
But they won't be able to compete in the long term if their schools are only pulling in around $35 mil a year in tv revenue, when the SEC schools are pulling in $80 to $90 mil a year. There is just too much of a revenue gap.
The decent PAC schools' (USC, Oregon, Washington, & maybe UCLA) only real chance is to join the B1G, and maybe then the B1G would be able to get close to the SEC in tv revenue. But there is no way that ESPN, Fox, or any other network is going to pay top dollar for the Pac 12 when most of their own fan bases don't even care about football (not to even mention the timezone they play in).
Success(and hope) = more money.
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