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Probability of winning the SEC
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:07 pm
Texas 46.3%
Ole Miss 16.5%
Tennessee 13.7%
Texas A&M 6.9%
Georgia 5.6%
Alabama 4.5%
Is that a 30% separation I see?
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Ole Miss 16.5%
Tennessee 13.7%
Texas A&M 6.9%
Georgia 5.6%
Alabama 4.5%
Is that a 30% separation I see?
LINK
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Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:11 pm to MtVernon
Bama has a great chance if they can make the SECCG...and they have a great shot to make it...
I would put some money on Bama making it...
I would put some money on Bama making it...
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:13 pm to MtVernon
It’s all yours. Enjoy the extra game.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:13 pm to Chicken
If you go by how teams are looking right now, Bama should rate higher than that.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:16 pm to MtVernon
Ole Miss has almost no shot of winning in a tiebreaker scenario so I'm confused as to how they're the 2nd highest percentage.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:17 pm to MtVernon
I want 6 6-2 teams at the end of the year. Is that too much to ask?
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:17 pm to Quicksilver
quote:
Ole Miss has almost no shot of winning in a tiebreaker scenario so I'm confused as to how they're the 2nd highest percentage.
Everyone else declines the invitation?
Edit: hopefully we would too. I want no part of the SEC CG with 2 losses already on the books.
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:17 pm to Quicksilver
quote:
Ole Miss has almost no shot of winning in a tiebreaker scenario so I'm confused as to how they're the 2nd highest percentage.
Remaining schedule? I'm sure that is a factor.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:19 pm to MtVernon
quote:
Remaining schedule? I'm sure that is a factor.
Alabama has a softer schedule left than Ole Miss right now.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:22 pm to MtVernon
how the hell does bama have a worse chance than us?
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:23 pm to MtVernon
If Bama and UGA win out wouldnt Bama hold the tie breaker due to head to head. Not sure why Bama is lower %
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:23 pm to MtVernon
quote:
Remaining schedule?
@ Oklahoma
vs Auburn
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:24 pm to MtVernon
This is a Gump take, but that Bama team from Saturday would send Quinn and the boys home sad.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:24 pm to mrbroker
quote:
If Bama and UGA win out wouldnt Bama hold the tie breaker due to head to head. Not sure why Bama is lower %
It's unlikely it's just between Bama and UGA. It's likely there are at least 3 2 loss teams.
Texas and Tennessee winning out likely solve this but it's entirely possible there are 5 2 loss teams vying for spots.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:33 pm to MtVernon
Recalculate with Texas losing to A&M. We are winning that game. I like our match up.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:37 pm to MtVernon
I wouldn't count my chickens before they are hatched.
Texas has a good team but they have lost to the only ranked team they have played, Georgia, and Georgia looked anything but great vs Ole Miss.
I think there are several teams that could beat Texas in the SECCG:
Alabama
Ole Miss
Tennessee and
Georgia again but we will not get into the SECCG.
Texas has a good team but they have lost to the only ranked team they have played, Georgia, and Georgia looked anything but great vs Ole Miss.
I think there are several teams that could beat Texas in the SECCG:
Alabama
Ole Miss
Tennessee and
Georgia again but we will not get into the SECCG.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 3:56 pm to MtVernon
quote:
Texas 46.3%
Ole Miss 16.5%
Tennessee 13.7%
Texas A&M 6.9%
Georgia 5.6%
Alabama 4.5%
Is that a 30% separation I see?
That's interesting, because ESPN has a slightly different take on it:
FPI Rankings
Probability:
Texas - 38%
Alabama - 31.4%
Tennessee - 12.6%
Georgia - 7.7%
Texas A&M - 5.6%
LSU - 3.6%
Ole Miss - 1.0%
Missouri - 0.2%
Most likely reasoning:
Texas is presumed to win the rest of their games. The biggest difference is that Texas would be favored to win any game except against Alabama (based on FPI rankings).
So it's a combination of "most likely to make the SECCG" of which Texas is obviously the front runner, followed by "which opponent is most likely to make it vs opponent most likely to beat Texas".
Tennessee and Texas A&M, while technically controlling their own destinies, are lower because they are both underdogs and presumed will lose at least 1 more conference game.
Those numbers change drastically if Tennessee beats Georgia and, obviously, if A&M beats Texas.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 4:20 pm to MtVernon
quote:
If you go by how teams are looking right now, Bama should rate higher than that.
That'll change bigly when Milroe plays an above average defense.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 4:24 pm to mrbroker
quote:
Bama and UGA win out wouldnt Bama hold the tie breaker due to head to head. Not sure why Bama is lower %
LSU is saying if everyone wins out they go over Bama. None of this makes sense.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 5:06 pm to Glorious
quote:
I want 6 6-2 teams at the end of the year. Is that too much to ask?
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