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re: Predicting each Program's number of SEC wins during the next decade

Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:17 pm to
Posted by UFMatt
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
11440 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

SEC East
8- Georgia


Leg humpers, gotta love em. They so cute, not very smart but cute.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

LSU won't slip that far


It's not that LSU will be bad... but with A&M joining the competitive club, there are only so many wins to be had.

LSU winning 46/80 SEC regular season games would look something like this:

2-8 against Alabama
4-6 against Auburn
5-5 against Texas A&M
5-5 against Florida
7-3 against rotating East opponent
7-3 against Miss State
8-2 against Arkansas
8-2 against Ole Miss
-----
46-34 total

I don't think it's that far fetched

Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
70900 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

In all likelihood LSU has a new coach in 2020.


Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

EIGHT???


Is this really me saying "Look how good Georgia is" or is it me saying, "Look how bad the rest of the SEC East is?"

quote:

3-5 in the big game too huh. but Bama has a worse win percentage. really choking when it counts.


No, not really. I think Bama will be the best team in the SEC over the next decade... only with a slightly worse record due to the fact they play in the West while Georgia plays in the East.

Let's go over this:
1. Florida- So far this decade, Florida is 22-26 in SEC play against teams not named Vandy or Kentucky.... 22-28 if you count the blowout losses to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now they've hired Dan Mullen... a guy who is known to be a poor recruiter and someone who could count the number of big wins on his resume on about 2 fingers.

2. Tennessee- Dumpster fire

3. Missouri- Do we really think Barry Odom is going to take Mizzou to that next level?

4. Vandy- same old Vandy

5. Kentucky- same old Kentucky

6. South Carolina- The only other program with a seemingly decent head coach. Still, Georgia has won 4 of the last 5 games against the Gamecocks, and that coincides with probably Georgia's most mediocre 5-year stretch of the past 20 years. I think winning 8 of 10 games against Carolina the next decade looks doable.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

Now they've hired Dan Mullen... a guy who is known to be a poor recruiter and someone who could count the number of big wins on his resume on about 2 fingers.



I still think you underrate Mullen. He does get overhyped on this website at times but what coach is going to pull of multiple "big wins" at Mississippi St. He did a good job of beating teams with similar talent levels and sometimes went above that.
Posted by TonyMontana
Member since Jul 2017
1169 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:42 pm to
Cool. Random numbers based on random randomness.

Downvoted.
Posted by CNB
Columbia, SC
Member since Sep 2007
95898 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

Georgia has won 4 of the last 5 games against the Gamecocks, and that coincides with probably Georgia's most mediocre 5-year stretch of the past 20 years.


Yeah and we’ve been fantastic the past 5 years
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42559 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:50 pm to
Calculate the mean and SD for each team related to SEC past wins
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:51 pm to
Why does Georgia consistently have the worst threads? Holy frick.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

but what coach is going to pull of multiple "big wins" at Mississippi St.


Jackie Sherrill

In 1996, he knocked off #11 Alabama
In 1997, he knocked off #11 Auburn
In 1998, he knocked off #16 Arkansas on his way to winning the SEC West
In 1999, he knocked off #22 Ole Miss
In 2000, he knocked off #10 Florida and #18 Auburn

That's 6 wins against Final Top 25 teams in just five seasons, plus an SEC West Championship.... that's way more than what Mullen was able to do in Starkville.
Posted by SECUSC4
Member since Jun 2018
1355 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 2:52 pm to
a five year period that involved a complete collapse and rebuild. and the one win coming pre-collapse.

We are done collapsing and rebuilding now.

Florida will be back soon too, and possibly tennessee after a couple years (although I hope not). They are currently peak collapse. Only one way to go from there.

Winning 8 East Champions based off this last year alone is wild. Alabama didnt even win 8 of the last 10 and they are peak dynasty. As someone once mentioned on this board...You're high.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:01 pm to
quote:


That's 6 wins against Final Top 25 teams in just five seasons, plus an SEC West Championship.... that's way more than what Mullen was able to do in Starkville.




Ok and he also didn't even have a winning record at Miss. St.

I'm talking about coaches that would have done better than Mullen in his situation. I'm not comparing him to previous Miss. St coaches, although that would help my argument.

Really not fair to include anything after the year 1999 anyway.
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 3:03 pm
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:04 pm to
Sherrill had 6 bowl visits in 13 years, Mullen had 8 in 9.

Mullen had 5 bowl wins to Sherrill's 2.

Mullen never had less than 5 wins at MSST, Sherrill had 5 different seasons like that.

quote:

That's 6 wins against Final Top 25 teams in just five seasons, plus an SEC West Championship.... that's way more than what Mullen was able to do in Starkville.



Sherrill went 3 - 21 in SEC play in his last three years.

Sherrill and Mullen both only had one ten win season.
Mullen had two nine win seasons to zero.
Mullen had a winning record, Sherrill was .500 exactly.

43 SEC wins in 13 years vs. 33 in 9, and MSST will definitely have a damn good season this year specifically for Mullen.

It's not even close as to who is the best coach in MSST history, and anyone who thinks it was Sherrill is kidding themselves.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:08 pm to
quote:


That's 6 wins against Final Top 25 teams in just five seasons


He also said this which was very misleading like it just took him 5 years to do it. 2000 was his 10th year as the head coach. Not even fair to include it.
Posted by soleckma
Member since Nov 2013
994 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:26 pm to
UG has one good year and now you're anointing them as the next great college football dynasty




Posted by piggilicious
Member since Jan 2011
37299 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:29 pm to
Calling it now, we go 12-0 in 2076.

Posted by Agseds
Member since Mar 2018
343 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:35 pm to
Surprised that you have Georgia losing 5 of their championship games against the west.
Posted by 85AustinAg
Austin, Texas
Member since Jan 2016
298 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

It’s just another “hey look how good UGA is now! Please notice us” thread There will be more
I'd put the over/under on East championships for UGA at 3.5 over the next 10 years, SEC championships at 1.5. Florida is going to get their share and I like what Boom is doing at USCe.
Posted by thatguy45
Your alter's mom's basement
Member since Sep 2017
18885 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

number of division titles

quote:

8- Georgia

there's a better chance of us winning it all in this time frame than that happening
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Calculate the mean and SD for each team related to SEC past wins



Here are how many SEC regular season wins each team has had during the LAST 10 seasons (2008-2017)*:

*Missouri and Texas A&M have only their 6 seasons prorated out to what it would be over 10 years:

71- Alabama
54- Georgia
53- LSU
52- Florida
42- Auburn
42- S. Carolina
42- Texas A&M
38- Missouri
35- Miss St
32- Ole Miss
30- Arkansas
26- Tennessee
22- Vanderbilt
21- Kentucky

If you put that up next to my projection, here is how I would be projected the next 10 years compared to the last 10 years:

+14 Georgia
+11 Auburn
+10 Texas A&M
+9 Tennessee
+1 Miss St
+1 S. Carolina
-1 Florida
-3 Missouri
-4 Alabama
-6 Arkansas
-6 Kentucky
-7 LSU
-9 Ole Miss
-10 Vanderbilt
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