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Mizzou vs. UGA......a few thoughts..
Posted on 9/18/18 at 3:23 am
Posted on 9/18/18 at 3:23 am
I was hoping to find the Mizzou/Purdue game on Youtube, but no dice. Really disappointing that no one wanted to put up a Power 5 matchup between arguably the two best conferences. So thus far, I've only seen Mizzou play Wyoming. I did see most of the Purdue first half live though.
Lock is deserving of the accolades. Strong arm and can make throws with accuracy that very few can make. Even some in the NFL don't have that arm talent. Receivers also have talent. Hall has good size and speed. Another 3 star talent that Mizzou found that many overlooked.
Not as impressed with the run game as it's purpose seems to be no more than to keep people honest. In 3 games against defenses that not SEC caliber, certainly not Bama, UGA, Auburn, LSU, MSU caliber (making sure no one got offended there for leaving them out) Mizzou is averaging 4.4 YPC, which is 12th in the conference.
While Mizzou's offense ranks second in the conference right now, their actual average yards per play is seventh, middle of the pack. And again, they have not played anyone of real significance. I would say their offense is good, but not the best in the conference or near it. It's similar to most of their Big 12 kin. Last year, looking at OU before the bowl game, I knew that their offense was legit not just because of the huge per game numbers, but the huge per play numbers. Despite many of the schools in the Big 12 being in the top 20 total offense, most were not in the top 20 in offensive efficiency (points per play, yards per play).
In all likelihood, most of the huge offensive numbers everyone has put up to this point will go down, including Mizzou's as the competition picks up.
There are concerns for Georgia defensively. We've gotten little pressure on the QB and I would think that is needed in this game to prevent a shootout. Missouri is a big play offense and getting them in must pass situations via negative yardage plays will likely be critical to shutting them down.
Another possible problem is Georgia's young starters at safety (Lecounte) and especially cornerback (true freshman Campbell). I'm sure Baker will be matched up with Hall when possible, so Lock may look towards exploiting Campbell's lack of experience.
The coaches are hopeful all SEC LT Andrew Thomas will be ready for this game. But he did not practice all last week and missed the first practice of this week. If he doesn't start, UGA will start another true freshman at the most critical position on the OLine. Young Mays has done well but got beat last week, which almost turned into a disastrous turnover that would've set MTSU up inside the five. Appears to have struggled a little with quicker and leaner Dlinemen.
That said, allowing a pedestrian QB throw for the second most yards in B1G history has to have Fromm and the receivers mouth watering. Mizzou also has not seen an Oline or RB talent like they will see Saturday. Just hard for me to see this offense being any less staggering than they were last year in this game.
Finally, Mizzou's style just does not bode well when needing a big time shocker of a win. You need to limit offensive possessions in games like this, which allows turnovers or huge STs plays to affect the outcome. Example: If UGA is projected to score tds 3 out of 5 possessions vs. Mizzou's D, and Mizzou is projected score 2 out of 5 against UGA's D, then if both teams have ten possessions, UGA wins by 14.
If that number goes up to 15, UGA wins by 21.
At 20, UGA wins by 28.
So Mizzou would need more turnovers and other fortunate UGA mishaps (DB falling down or pulling a hamstring etc.) to make up that advantage.
Last year, it's important to note that while Mizzou scored 28 points, they only had one sustained drive that produced points. UGA actually gave them 7 earlier with a turnover and a very short field. Then there were two blown coverage plays.
I see this game going one of two ways, much like Bama and Ole MIss last week.
Either Mizzou is able to move the ball well and score on UGA's D with their offensive talent and lose by 17 or so. Or they can't and will lose by 35 plus.
Either way, obviously give the points. Go Dawgs!!
Lock is deserving of the accolades. Strong arm and can make throws with accuracy that very few can make. Even some in the NFL don't have that arm talent. Receivers also have talent. Hall has good size and speed. Another 3 star talent that Mizzou found that many overlooked.
Not as impressed with the run game as it's purpose seems to be no more than to keep people honest. In 3 games against defenses that not SEC caliber, certainly not Bama, UGA, Auburn, LSU, MSU caliber (making sure no one got offended there for leaving them out) Mizzou is averaging 4.4 YPC, which is 12th in the conference.
While Mizzou's offense ranks second in the conference right now, their actual average yards per play is seventh, middle of the pack. And again, they have not played anyone of real significance. I would say their offense is good, but not the best in the conference or near it. It's similar to most of their Big 12 kin. Last year, looking at OU before the bowl game, I knew that their offense was legit not just because of the huge per game numbers, but the huge per play numbers. Despite many of the schools in the Big 12 being in the top 20 total offense, most were not in the top 20 in offensive efficiency (points per play, yards per play).
In all likelihood, most of the huge offensive numbers everyone has put up to this point will go down, including Mizzou's as the competition picks up.
There are concerns for Georgia defensively. We've gotten little pressure on the QB and I would think that is needed in this game to prevent a shootout. Missouri is a big play offense and getting them in must pass situations via negative yardage plays will likely be critical to shutting them down.
Another possible problem is Georgia's young starters at safety (Lecounte) and especially cornerback (true freshman Campbell). I'm sure Baker will be matched up with Hall when possible, so Lock may look towards exploiting Campbell's lack of experience.
The coaches are hopeful all SEC LT Andrew Thomas will be ready for this game. But he did not practice all last week and missed the first practice of this week. If he doesn't start, UGA will start another true freshman at the most critical position on the OLine. Young Mays has done well but got beat last week, which almost turned into a disastrous turnover that would've set MTSU up inside the five. Appears to have struggled a little with quicker and leaner Dlinemen.
That said, allowing a pedestrian QB throw for the second most yards in B1G history has to have Fromm and the receivers mouth watering. Mizzou also has not seen an Oline or RB talent like they will see Saturday. Just hard for me to see this offense being any less staggering than they were last year in this game.
Finally, Mizzou's style just does not bode well when needing a big time shocker of a win. You need to limit offensive possessions in games like this, which allows turnovers or huge STs plays to affect the outcome. Example: If UGA is projected to score tds 3 out of 5 possessions vs. Mizzou's D, and Mizzou is projected score 2 out of 5 against UGA's D, then if both teams have ten possessions, UGA wins by 14.
If that number goes up to 15, UGA wins by 21.
At 20, UGA wins by 28.
So Mizzou would need more turnovers and other fortunate UGA mishaps (DB falling down or pulling a hamstring etc.) to make up that advantage.
Last year, it's important to note that while Mizzou scored 28 points, they only had one sustained drive that produced points. UGA actually gave them 7 earlier with a turnover and a very short field. Then there were two blown coverage plays.
I see this game going one of two ways, much like Bama and Ole MIss last week.
Either Mizzou is able to move the ball well and score on UGA's D with their offensive talent and lose by 17 or so. Or they can't and will lose by 35 plus.
Either way, obviously give the points. Go Dawgs!!
Posted on 9/18/18 at 4:24 am to koreandawg
TLDR. This game isn't worth the effort to read all that. UGA names the score.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 4:38 am to crimsonuatide
LOL, I get that. But maybe some Mizzou fans might have fun criticizing it.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 4:57 am to koreandawg
This will be very ugly. UGA 48 LGBT 17
Posted on 9/18/18 at 5:03 am to koreandawg
quote:
arguably the two best conferences
quote:
It wasn't the best week for the B1G as seven unranked teams beat the Big Ten. It was arguably the worst-day in conference history. Teams like Troy, South Florida, Akron, Kansas and Temple managed to top the Big Ten despite some being double-digit underdogs.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 5:48 am to koreandawg
That’s a lot of words for a Missouri game
Posted on 9/18/18 at 7:09 am to Chadaristic
Yeah, they've taken some lumps. But I was referring to the start of the season.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 7:10 am to koreandawg
Fear the thumb Mizzzzzzzzzou.
WE COMIN
WE COMIN
Posted on 9/18/18 at 7:14 am to koreandawg
Wow, that took longer to type than UGA to win.
I admire your method of extending your enjoyment.
I admire your method of extending your enjoyment.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 7:19 am to koreandawg
Overall, pretty fair analysis. Even if Mizzou would have handled Purdue the way I thought they should have I would have thought Georgia by 2 TDs was the likely outcome. Now I’m guessing 3-4. Hoping for a miracle!
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:09 am to koreandawg
Couple things...
Totally shite the bed vs Purdue defensively and that destroyed my ability to talk shite this week. Gives me the sadz.
1. Nobody can cover Hall (if healthy which he should be). It doesn't matter who you put over there he will get his.
2. Concerning our "style of play" we don't run that bullshite pace offense anymore. We have been on the plus side of TOP in every game.
Maybe the defense shitting the bed vs Purdue was an anomaly. Not saying the Pass D is good per se, but maybe it's not downright terrible and they just had a bad night. Have to win the TO battle and catch a few breaks to keep it close.
Totally shite the bed vs Purdue defensively and that destroyed my ability to talk shite this week. Gives me the sadz.
1. Nobody can cover Hall (if healthy which he should be). It doesn't matter who you put over there he will get his.
2. Concerning our "style of play" we don't run that bullshite pace offense anymore. We have been on the plus side of TOP in every game.
Maybe the defense shitting the bed vs Purdue was an anomaly. Not saying the Pass D is good per se, but maybe it's not downright terrible and they just had a bad night. Have to win the TO battle and catch a few breaks to keep it close.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:17 am to koreandawg
quote:
I see this game going one of two ways
I can see that in every game.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:20 am to JesusQuintana
quote:
1. Nobody can cover Hall (if healthy which he should be). It doesn't matter who you put over there he will get his.
It sounds like he will be on Baker's side all game. Do you care to predict a statline for Hall?
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:39 am to meansonny
As long as his groin is fine then 100+ yards and at least a score
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:41 am to JesusQuintana
Doubtful if he's matched up on Baker with any regularity.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:44 am to koreandawg
TL;DR
Dawgs by 50+, depends when they wanna put their 4th string in.
Dawgs by 50+, depends when they wanna put their 4th string in.
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 8:54 am
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:46 am to Crowknowsbest
Nobody has been able to cover him yet, including Georgia last year.
You'd be wise to roll a safety over the top. Leaving anyone out there on an island with him is asking for trouble
You'd be wise to roll a safety over the top. Leaving anyone out there on an island with him is asking for trouble
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:47 am to JesusQuintana
Did hall miss the Texas game last year?
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:49 am to JesusQuintana
quote:
Nobody has been able to cover him yet, including Georgia last year.
Nobody has been able to do that to Baker yet either, at least since early in his career. He's a projected 1st round pick for a reason. He just blanketed Deebo Samuel two weeks ago.
We'll see. I would be surprised.
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