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Is Tua overrated?

Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:54 am
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:54 am
Here are Tua's stats against S&P+ defenses rated outside the Top 20 (Against #38 Missouri, #42 Texas A&M, #65 Arkansas State, #80 Arkansas, #96 Tennessee, #109 Ole Miss, #110 Louisville, #111 Louisiana, and FCS The Citidel):

Completions: 125
Attempts: 174
Completion%: 71.8%
Total Passing Yards: 2406
Yards/Game: 267.3
Yards/Attempt: 13.83
Touchdowns: 28
Interceptions: 0
QB Rating: 241.09

Here are his stats against Top 20 S&P+ Defenses (#6 Missisippi State, #14 LSU, #16 Georgia, and #18 Auburn):

Completions: 74
Attempts: 120
Completion%: 61.7%
Total Yards: 947
Yards/Game: 236.8
Yards/Attempt: 7.89
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 4
QB Rating: 146.04

I think Tua is a good QB, but I also think he's had the luxury of throwing to the nation's best WR corp as well as he has one of the nation's best OL blocking for him. Most amazingly, he's racked up a ton of stats against an absolute abhorrent schedule.

Of those bottom 9 defenses he's faced, the median S&P+ Defensive ranking is #96. That's unreal. Of course he's going to have amazing stats.

Against the four solid defenses he's faced, he's had one good game (Auburn), one really bad game (Georgia), and two very pedestrian outings (MSU & LSU).

Is he good? Yes. But maybe everyone should pump the breaks just a bit. I'm not quite sure he's deserving of the hype he's received.
Posted by genro
Member since Nov 2011
61788 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:55 am to
Idk, but Jalen Hurts is underrated
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:55 am to
Are you trying to tell me he plays better against poor defenses than good defenses? I'm shocked. SHOCKED!
Posted by JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
In The Ham
Member since Nov 2017
11659 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:55 am to
#13 has hit the wall it appears. Is the reason his injury situation? Or has he become really greedy in trying for the big play on every pass.
Posted by Hogwarts
Arkansas, USA
Member since Sep 2015
18043 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:56 am to
Good post
Posted by DinosaursAreReal
Member since Nov 2018
1387 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:56 am to
He’s trying to do too much now. I really think he tried to win the Heisman too much. His father probably was in his head about winning it.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30851 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:56 am to
quote:

one really bad game (Georgia)


Injured on the first drive. Jeebus you frickers are dense.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
51443 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:57 am to
He's good, but I've been saying let's pump the brakes a bit. Some people are already anointing him as a top nfl QB. It's hilarious.
Posted by cyde
He gone
Member since Nov 2005
31793 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:57 am to
Average at best. If he's drafted at all after next year, he'll probably be a Bama bust.
Posted by TheTideMustRoll
Birmingham, AL
Member since Dec 2009
8906 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:58 am to
Up through the UT game, he was absolutely as good as advertised. His accuracy was unreal. I don’t know if it’s due to his knee injury or what, but he hasn’t been the same since. Not just against the good teams, but the bad ones, too. His accuracy and touch haven’t been to the same level. Hopefully a few weeks off will give him time to get back to himself again.
Posted by Benjamin Ryan
Hodges
Member since Aug 2018
301 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:58 am to
I don't believe Tua is overrated at all. I think that he is injured. With plenty of time to heal, he will be back to being a force of nature. If not, Hurts is still a full load.
Posted by TailbackU
ATL
Member since Oct 2005
11076 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:58 am to
Tua didn't have the eye of the tiger last night and Fromm did. You could see that plain as day on TV. He was the first fighter that blinked, but his receivers didn't do him any favors last night either. I've never seen Bama's receivers get the yips like that before.
Posted by lsuag88
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2006
3493 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:58 am to
Semi pro OL and receivers help too!!
Posted by ipodking
#StopTalkingAboutWomensSports
Member since Jun 2008
56271 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 9:59 am to
He’s not overrated he’s just soft
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:00 am to
He has had a relative rough last month. Don't know all the reasons why but facts are facts.
This post was edited on 12/2/18 at 10:01 am
Posted by MullenBoys
In the minds of Ole Miss fans
Member since Apr 2014
13673 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:00 am to
Nobody held Alabama to less yards than Mississippi State defense.
This post was edited on 12/2/18 at 10:01 am
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:00 am to
quote:

 don't believe Tua is overrated at all. I think that he is injured. With plenty of time to heal, he will be back to being a force of nature. If not, Hurts is still a full load.





Finally someone with a brain.
Posted by TideWarrior
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
11833 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Is he good? Yes. But maybe everyone should pump the breaks just a bit. I'm not quite sure he's deserving of the hype he's received.


But who should get the hype. Murray who I doubt has seen any type of defense Tua has. Or give me another QB who would have fared any better against these 4 defenses you mentioned. Even Fromm struggled against LSU.
Posted by Teague
The Shoals, AL
Member since Aug 2007
21669 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Up through the UT game, he was absolutely as good as advertised. His accuracy was unreal. I don’t know if it’s due to his knee injury or what, but he hasn’t been the same since. Not just against the good teams, but the bad ones, too. His accuracy and touch haven’t been to the same level. Hopefully a few weeks off will give him time to get back to himself again.


This. I have to assume it's the knee (and ankles now). Let's see how he looks in January.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 12/2/18 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Up through the UT game, he was absolutely as good as advertised.


So against the #110, #65, #109, #42, #111, #80, #38, and #96 defenses according to S&P+, he was "absolutely as good as advertised."

quote:

but he hasn’t been the same since.


Hmmm. Since that game he's faced the #14, #6, #18, and #16 defenses in the country, along with the Citidel.

I'm not sure what happened. It's an absolute mystery.
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