I think the era of singular dominant programs is over

100% agree.

Even in a 4 team playoff, you had to get through your regular season, win your conference which is usually a top ten team, then your first playoff with a top 4 team, then the NC with a top 2 team. That's a tall order. Like you said, with 12 or eventually 16, even harder. The good teams will still be in the mix annually, but running that gauntlet isn't something anyone is going to be able to string together the way Bama did it in the old system where you play your schedule, win your conference, then play a bowl game, then journalists and a computer program determine your championship.

A trend i am seeing is that first year starters are not good enough to go on playoff runs.

OhioSt won a title last year with a throw away from KanSt. but he was 23 years old.
Michigan was full of super seniors and upperclassmen.
Burrow was 22 or 23.
Stetson Bennett was 24 and 25.
Fernando Mendoza is a throw away nobody wanted but he is 22.
Carson Beck- same.

Cignetti isn't going to have a 1st year starting qb ever.

He doesn't recruit high schools. He recruits the portal.
The days of paying 5 star 18 year olds millions of dollars before knowing if they can play is going to end. Championship teams will continue to be made up of 22 and 23 year old transfers and upperclassmen.

The teams in the SEC that fight over the 5 star high schoolers and pay them millions only for them to be in the NFL by age 21 may still win in the short term, but teams that aren't winning now are about to do their best Cignetti impression to even the playing field.

A team of 3 stars who are basically all upperclassmen and transfers just annihilated a BAMA team with more talent at ever position on paper. Two of the main differences was experience and age of the players on the field.

This is already happening in basketball to a large degree.

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Beck isn't playing good though. Miami is only winning due to defense.

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He isn't giving games away. But I agree. His play isn't good enough to win it all. He's why they'll lose to IU.

But I'm interested to see what Cignetti does next year at qb if Fernando Mendoza declares for the draft. I'm guessing he plucks him another 4 year starter that nobody has heard of instead of having a 1st year qb.

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The days of paying 5 star 18 year olds millions of dollars before knowing if they can play is going to end.

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Yep. It’s already starting to tilt more that way. It doesn’t make sense to pay freshmen big money.

IU will play Miami in the natty is what I am suggesting.

It’s going to turn into the NFL model. Elite RB’s and WR’s may demand 7 figures out of high school because they can make an immediate impact, but QB/OL/DL/LB and most DBs are a waste of money as they need at least 1-2 years of development

Depending on which route Cignetti takes, will depend on if he can keep his success rolling. If he continues the transfer portal route, he's going to have to (each year) be a savvy GM and roll dice on incoming transfers and hope he hits on them. He did in his first two years. But as Fla St and Mike Norvell have shown, there's another side to that blade. If you don't hit on it, you're freaking toast that could turn into a multi year downturn. Or Cignetti could transition more to the traditional way of building a team and that's through recruiting, which means he would be subject to playing younger less experienced players. Which as we all know means the higher risk of losses.

It's a pick the sword you're going to live and die with, no doubt. The next three to four years should be interesting to watch. I'm sure at some point an ESPN documentary will come out about everything that has gone on since the NIL and portal started