re: Georgia I Mean this as No Disrespect: Is Tennessee +9 the Easiest Play in History?

I didn't make an excuse.
I made a comment that our defense was playing well despite injuries.

You asked, and I followed up that our best player had missed about a month. And the defense was still stout without him.

Now he is back. And we have depth (which is needed when we sub against tennessee. Last year when they subbed, we rotated an entirely new DL).

If we had UGA's schedule would be averaging at least 60 points a game.

Easiest bet of the weekend - take UGA and lay the points, especially if you can get a line under 14

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You or I not making excuses doesn't mean our fanbases at large don't. Now you're changing the entire conversation from "Bama and Georgia fans at large" to two posters who happen to be Bama and Georgia fans.

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Lol

Just own the fact that your reading comprehension failed on my post.

I owned up to the fact that the thread is about point spreads when I replied only cared about the win (my bad).

Bama is the only team to go full blown conspiracy theory after every loss (both Bama and Auburn cry about injuries). You were the one who introduced "excuses" into this thread. And I laughed that a Bama fan still has excuses on his mind.

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Easiest Play in History

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Famous last words

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Do you honestly, in your heart of hearts, believe UGA is the 2nd best offense in the country?

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I actually believe it's the best.

UGA's offense is built to take advantage of any weakness the opposing defense presents. It's not the best in any individual area, but it's versatility makes it the hardest to stop, even without an elite QB.

Oregon in game 1 tried to take away the middle of the field and the running game (because that's what UGA was known for last year... TE play and running the ball). UGA responded by throwing to outside receivers and RB's to the outside in the flat. Result? 571 yards of offense.

SC saw this and tried to take away the outside threats. UGA went to the TE's in the passing game and ran it up the gut. Result? 547 yards of offense.

Mizzou used the same formula as SC. Result? 481 yards of offense (but Mizzou DID get stops in the redzone and force turnovers that led to a lower score)

Auburn said "Screw this, UGA is a passing team this year. We're going to sell out to stop the pass. They were successful at this, holding UGA to 200 yards passing. But UGA had 300 yards of rushing to end up with 500 total yards.

Vandy... well they're Vandy. 579 yards.

UF focused on defending the outside of the field... and it paid off for them in that UGA kept throwing out there and they got some picks (and near picks) to the outside... even though UGA beat their coverage some. Finally UGA decided to focus on the soft center of the field, feeding the TE's in the middle for big gains. Result? 555 yards.

UGA's had one game against a P5 team where they got less than 500 yards, and that was 481 against Mizzou. On the flip side, UT had 416 against Pitt and 422 vs UK. They've had bigger games against their G5/FCS cupcakes than UGA has, but those games really don't matter.

Teams with much worse defenses than UGA's have held UT to far lower yardage totals than the best any P5 team has to UGA.

Now why am I using yardage rather than points? Because yards allowed are entirely for the offense or against the defense. Points take into account the team's performance on the other side of the ball much more.

UT's big advantage (and the reason why the spread wasn't set higher than the 12.5 it started at) is turnovers. UT is +8 in turnovers this year and that line is expecting them to be +1 in this game. UGA is even in turnover margin.

The reality is UT's likely going to need to be +2 in turnover margin to win this game. If it's even or in UGA's favor, UGA likely wins by a 3-score or higher margin.

Maybe not top two but top 10 for sure. Our running game is finally coming together as well which is great because Georgia is going to try and slow down the tempo if they do that then Tennessee is in trouble

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I don't see Stetson Bennett lighting up their secondary

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Really? Anthony Richardson went for 450+.

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I agree in that it isn't disrespectful to Georgia, but I agree with you. I think Tennessee is good for 30+ points this Saturday. Tennessee's defensive line has been playing well, and I don't see Stetson Bennett lighting up their secondary. Easy, easy play, in my opinion.

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That is an interesting number.

Under Kirby Smart, when opponents score more than 30 points, UGA is 1-9. When they allow less than 30, they are 73-6. The last time Tennessee scored less than 30 points was last year against Georgia.

Heupel has never won a game (0-7) where his team has scored less than 30 points. He's 43-7 when they score 30 or more.