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ESPN FPI: LSU 2018
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:16 pm
ESPN FPI ranks LSU #25 in the nation coming into the 2017 season. Unfortunately their SOS is ranked #3 nationally, so their projected results are not too favorable:
Here is the percent chance it gives LSU for winning each game:
34.3%- Miami
98.6%- SE Louisiana
17.4%- at Auburn
85.7%- LA Tech
69.5%- Ole Miss
35.0%- at Florida
22.8%- Georgia
40.4%- Mississippi St
22.2%- Alabama
55.0%- at Arkansas
98.7%- Rice
34.8%- at Texas A&M
This works out to 5-7 straight up, but with the probabilities factored, they think they'll win 6.14 games total.
So if this were to pan out...
1. When was the last time LSU lost 3 home games in 3 consecutive games?... It could happen with losses to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama.
2. How much pressure would be on Ed Orgeron, heading into Fayetteville?
3. Would Ed O survive a 5-7 year? How about 6-6?
Here is the percent chance it gives LSU for winning each game:
34.3%- Miami
98.6%- SE Louisiana
17.4%- at Auburn
85.7%- LA Tech
69.5%- Ole Miss
35.0%- at Florida
22.8%- Georgia
40.4%- Mississippi St
22.2%- Alabama
55.0%- at Arkansas
98.7%- Rice
34.8%- at Texas A&M
This works out to 5-7 straight up, but with the probabilities factored, they think they'll win 6.14 games total.
So if this were to pan out...
1. When was the last time LSU lost 3 home games in 3 consecutive games?... It could happen with losses to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama.
2. How much pressure would be on Ed Orgeron, heading into Fayetteville?
3. Would Ed O survive a 5-7 year? How about 6-6?
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 3:21 pm
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Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:18 pm to BHMKyle
quote:2017 or 2018?
ESPN FPI ranks LSU #25 in the nation coming into the 2017 season
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:18 pm to BHMKyle
Might as well not even play the games, pre-season FPI says we suck
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:19 pm to BHMKyle
Makes me wonder, with UGA and Alabama at 22-23% at home, how bad those would be on the road. That's rough.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:20 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. When was the last time LSU lost 3 home games in 3 consecutive games?
1999
quote:
3. Would Ed O survive a 5-7 year?
no
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:20 pm to The Nino
2018, my bad. Fixed
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:22 pm to skrayper
quote:
Makes me wonder, with UGA and Alabama at 22-23% at home, how bad those would be on the road. That's rough.
If we use vegas odds as a way to measure that (no idea how FPI works), don't you typically get 3 points for being the home team? So if we use that as a basis, that number maybe goes from 22-23% to 15%. I don't really care. Both Alabama and UGA will probably be favored by 14 points, maybe more. We'll see what happens when they play.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:22 pm to BHMKyle
For entertainment purposes I need LSU to suck (6-6) but not suck so bad that nobody cares (Auburn 2012)
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:23 pm to BHMKyle
I think they'll beat A&M on the rd and Miss St at home. They could beat Miami too. Lsu might lose to a troy, but they still have the talent to beat anyone too
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:38 pm to Aggiehoss04
Smart Aggie
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:45 pm to ctiger69
Lsu has the 3rd most NFL talented roster in the SEC. They dont play lime it consistently, but they have thoroughbreds to beat anyone. A&M has a roster full if Sumlin recruits who nearly lost to Ole Miss and Arkansas. Fisher will be good, but he's still 2-3 yrs away
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:52 pm to BHMKyle
No need to play the games
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:02 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
2018, my bad. Fixed
it is not fixed
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:06 pm to lsufball19
quote:
Both Alabama and UGA will probably be favored by 14 points, maybe more. We'll see what happens when they play.
There's the key. All of these Vegas odds and FPI and stuff is all for entertainment purposes. It's what is on the field that matters, and we have to wait and see on that.
I do have to admit, though, that I will look at these threads to see reactions and for discussion purposes.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:33 pm to BHMKyle
Does nobody see that LSU is as talented, and maybe more talented then we were last year? The biggest losses were Guice and Donte Jackson, other then that, we improve everywhere.
I'm not saying that we are gonna beat the world and go 12-0 but they are acting like we are Vanderbilt out here.
I'm not saying that we are gonna beat the world and go 12-0 but they are acting like we are Vanderbilt out here.
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:55 pm to LSUdude247
quote:
Does nobody see that LSU is as talented, and maybe more talented then we were last year?
It doesn't matter how talented lsu is or will be. You have Mongo coaching your team.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:56 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
17.4%- at Auburn
quote:
22.2%- Alabama
Dem rivals
Posted on 7/19/18 at 5:00 pm to Aggiehoss04
quote:
Lsu has the 3rd most NFL talented roster in the SEC
Myth.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 5:07 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Here is the percent chance it gives LSU for winning each game:
and historically, how accurate has this been.... ??
As an LSU/College Football fan I am very comfortable in saying prognosticating wins/losses in July is an exercise in futility...
But to answer your question...
3 Losses in a row and/or a 6/6 season would make for a very foul fan base when there is already controversy (in the fans eyes..) with coach O...
I would not want to be on the either the LSU coaching or admin staff under those circumstances...
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