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re: Conference Finish Calculator
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:12 am to bigDgator
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:12 am to bigDgator
quote:
I can understand the Texas fans saying this. They have been here for about 5 seconds, but a Georgia fan not wanting to win the SEC championship?
Really Gruven?
Winning the SEC would absolutely be cool, just to say we did it.
But I think that 5th seed has an easier path to the semi-finals.. it's honestly messed up. They will fix it soon imo.
CCG + 1 BYE + 8/9 + 4/5/12 seed + other bracket winner
or
BYE + 12 + 4 + 1/8/9 + other bracket winner
We shall see which path is better.. but if the 5/6 is better than the 1/2, we will see a change to 14 teams pretty quick.
14 teams
1 + 2 = bye
6 games underneath
potential reseeding after the 1st round
0
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:14 am to BigBro
The scenario I find most interesting is A&M beating LSU then losing to Texas while Texas, UGA and LSU win out after that.
UGA, Texas, LSU and A&M would all be 7-1 in the conference. UGA and Texas would be 11-1 overall. LSU and A&M would be 10-2. But LSU and A&M would be in the SECCG with the winner getting a bye and the loser likely missing the playoff.
UGA would likely be #1 or #2 in the nation. Texas would be #3 or #4. Neither in the SECCG.
UGA, Texas, LSU and A&M would all be 7-1 in the conference. UGA and Texas would be 11-1 overall. LSU and A&M would be 10-2. But LSU and A&M would be in the SECCG with the winner getting a bye and the loser likely missing the playoff.
UGA would likely be #1 or #2 in the nation. Texas would be #3 or #4. Neither in the SECCG.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:17 am to BhamTigah
quote:
A loss in the SEC championship could easily keep a team out of the playoffs if there are that many teams that close.
How bad would that suck?
It will be interesting to see how the committee sees a loss in the CCG.
11-1 >>> 11-2 would still be greater than 10-2
but
10-2 >>> 10-3 would arguably be worse than 10-2
but playing for the bye could certainly kick some teams out.. I personally like 14 teams better because of 2 byes vs 4 byes. Giving the two weakest CC a bye when they aren't in the Top 4 teams doesn't make much sense.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:17 am to brdogman48
quote:
So if LSU splits Texas A&M and Bama and win out we pretty much go to the championship game regardless of scenario
yep, will take a huge upset somewhere for that not to happen
this is an awesome tool OP
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:18 am to BigBro
Gonna need divisions or go to 9 games…way too many teams going to be involved in the tiebreaker
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:20 am to bigDgator
quote:
I can understand the Texas fans saying this. They have been here for about 5 seconds, but a Georgia fan not wanting to win the SEC championship?
Really Gruven?
Man, BigD, this one’s hard. I ABSOLUTELY want a SEC championship in this new landscape. But have you looked at the way the bracket is going to set up for 5 and 6 seeds? Even with a bye some of the matchups for the conference champs can be brutal AND you have to beat another top tier SEC team to even get a bye. That’s a lot of games vs very good competition and injuries happen. What I desperately want is to be a healthy team going deep into the playoffs. I will take our depth (sans QB, oh and RB too) vs anyone.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:20 am to TexasOnTop
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:22 am to DawginSC
quote:
UGA, Texas, LSU and A&M would all be 7-1 in the conference. UGA and Texas would be 11-1 overall. LSU and A&M would be 10-2. But LSU and A&M would be in the SECCG with the winner getting a bye and the loser likely missing the playoff.
UGA would likely be #1 or #2 in the nation. Texas would be #3 or #4. Neither in the SECCG.
1. LSU (7 - 1) Above Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
2. Texas (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). Above Georgia and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
3. Georgia (7 - 1) With Texas and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063). With Texas A&M, below Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063). Above Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
4. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063). With Georgia, below Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063). Below Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
5. Vandy (5 - 3) With Alabama, above Ole Miss and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5). Above Alabama based on head-to-head record (1-0).
6. Alabama (5 - 3) With Vandy, above Ole Miss and Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5). Below Vandy based on head-to-head record (0-1).
7. Ole Miss (5 - 3) With Tennessee, below Alabama and Vandy based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063). Above Tennessee based on winning percentage against #9 teams all played one time (1-0).
8. Tennessee (5 - 3) With Ole Miss, below Alabama and Vandy based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Below Ole Miss based on winning percentage against #9 teams all played one time (0-1).
9. Arkansas (4 - 4) Above Missouri based on head-to-head record (1-0).
10. Missouri (4 - 4) Below Arkansas based on head-to-head record (0-1).
11. Kentucky (2 - 6) Above Florida, Oklahoma, and S Carolina based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-0).
12. Florida (2 - 6) With Oklahoma and S Carolina, below Kentucky based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1). Above Oklahoma and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.625).
13. S Carolina (2 - 6) With Florida and Oklahoma, below Kentucky based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1). With Oklahoma, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). Above Oklahoma based on head-to-head record (1-0).
14. Oklahoma (2 - 6) With Florida and S Carolina, below Kentucky based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (0-1). With S Carolina, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469). Below S Carolina based on head-to-head record (0-1).
15. Miss St (0 - 8) Above Auburn based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6406).
16. Auburn (0 - 8) Below Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5625).
This is just one example.. the games at the bottom effect who the Top 2 teams are.. but yes, that 4 way tie yields some wild shite.
It is important to note that this model may have errors and need tweaking.. It is not my model.. so I have no idea if it is accurate or not, but there definitely appears to be a lot of thought that goes into it.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:25 am to Loganville Vols
quote:
Alabama above Tennessee can’t see that. Since Tennessee beat Alabama.
Yea, I don't think his algorithm is correct. Head to head I believe beats conf opponents winning %.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:27 am to BigBro
Book marked for when this will be more useful in several weeks
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:30 am to Old Sarge
if LSU splits A&M and BAMA, this is pretty much only way...LSU doesnt go to the ship.
would be
SEC Standings
1. Georgia (7 - 1) Above LSU and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
2. Texas (7 - 1) With LSU, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). Above LSU based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-0).
3. LSU (7 - 1) With Texas, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Below Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-1).
4. Tennessee (6 - 2) Above Missouri based on winning percentage against #8 teams all played one time (1-0).
5. Missouri (6 - 2) Below Tennessee based on winning percentage against #8 teams all played one time (0-1).
6. Texas A&M (5 - 3) Above Ole Miss based on winning percentage against #1 teams all played one time (1-0).
7. Ole Miss (5 - 3) Below Texas A&M based on winning percentage against #1 teams all played one time (0-1).
8. Alabama (4 - 4) Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).
9. S Carolina (4 - 4) Below Alabama based on head-to-head record (0-1).
10. Arkansas (3 - 5) Above Vandy based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-3).
11. Vandy (3 - 5) Below Arkansas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-4).
12. Florida (2 - 6) Above Auburn and Kentucky based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094).
13. Kentucky (2 - 6) With Auburn, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5625). Above Auburn based on head-to-head record (1-0).
14. Auburn (2 - 6) With Kentucky, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844). Below Kentucky based on head-to-head record (0-1).
15. Oklahoma (1 - 7)
16. Miss St (0 - 8)
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:35 am to King
quote:
Yea, I don't think his algorithm is correct. Head to head I believe beats conf opponents winning %.
If that's true, then what would be the result if UGA/Texas/LSU/A&M are all 7-1 in conference, with A&M beating LSU and Texas beating A&M?
UGA beat TExas who beat A&M who beat LSU... so would it be a UGA/Texas rematch?
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:36 am to lsu777
quote:
if LSU splits A&M and BAMA, this is pretty much only way...LSU doesnt go to the ship.
Well, you could lose to both A&M and Bama (and more).
Posted on 10/22/24 at 8:40 am to DawginSC
quote:
Well, you could lose to both A&M and Bama (and more).
we could...certainly could...I dont think we will. but we could
Posted on 10/22/24 at 9:27 am to BigBro
Cool, if the Gators win out, they finish second! Where is Hope when you need her?
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:39 am to UFMatt
this needs to be bumped so people understand the absolute chaos that is about to happen with a bunch of teams tied at top of the standings!!
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:44 am to BigBro
I’m loving the playoffs now.
Thought it would make games more meaningless but it actually makes them more meaningful. You can still have 2 losses by the end of the season and whether you win the last game might be the decider in a playoff spot or not.
Thought it would make games more meaningless but it actually makes them more meaningful. You can still have 2 losses by the end of the season and whether you win the last game might be the decider in a playoff spot or not.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:46 am to 49 to nada
How do we know they aren’t going to punish ccg losers tho? Is there a scenario where a two loss team losses seccg and the committee says well it’s easier to stick a big 10 acc or big 12 team in than trying to put 3rd place team over a three los seccg loser?
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:57 am to UFMatt
quote:
Cool, if the Gators win out, they finish second! Where is Hope when you need her?
This would be quite the accomplishment, and I don't mean to burst your bubble, but it's possible you are left out if Vandy also runs the table.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:58 am to King
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, but this whole thing is mute because the tiebreaker is only used to determine which teams go to SECCG. In your scenario, if LSU, Georgia, and Texas all finished with league best 7-1 records, Georgia wins the first tiebreaker (head-to-head), so they're in. Their opponent is a whole lot trickier...
A. Head-to-head (both 0%, didn't play)
B. Record against common opponents (both 100%, 5-0)
C. Record against highest placed common opponent in conf. standings (both 100%)
D. Cumulative conf. winning % of ALL conf. opponents, not just common ones. I assume this is what OP's program calculates and don't have the energy to double-check, but it says LSU has the best.
So, Georgia and LSU in the CG, Texas 3rd, and all of the 6-2 teams tied for 4th.
A. Head-to-head (both 0%, didn't play)
B. Record against common opponents (both 100%, 5-0)
C. Record against highest placed common opponent in conf. standings (both 100%)
D. Cumulative conf. winning % of ALL conf. opponents, not just common ones. I assume this is what OP's program calculates and don't have the energy to double-check, but it says LSU has the best.
So, Georgia and LSU in the CG, Texas 3rd, and all of the 6-2 teams tied for 4th.
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