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Can we talk about analytics?
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:10 am
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:10 am
First off, I hate that phrase and have no clue why over the last 5-10 years it's exploded and is now such a mainstay whenever we talk about decisions in sports. Anyways..some math person somewhere sat down and created a chart for when you should to what based on score and time of game and apparently that's the end all be all. Anytime lane kiffin goes for it on 4th on his own side of the field..."analytics!!!". When brian kelly goes for 2 after scoring when he was only down 21..."analytics!!!" When that HS coach refuses to ever punt and goes for it every 4th down all game...."analytics!!!"
Which brings us to Saturday. In the 2nd half we couldn't stop LSU's passing game for shite, and they were mostly hitting big chunk pass plays and moving quickly. The game likely wasn't in doubt but they at least showed they could make it interesting. We score a TD to go up by 25 points with basically the entire 4th quarter still left to play. Obviously 24 points is what's considered "3 possessions" so anything above 24 is somewhat of a clean slate if you will. So if we kick the XP we go up by 26. In a worst case, disaster, meltdown scenario where LSU has erased the 3 possession deficit, being up by 1 or 2 is entirely meaningless since a FG at the buzzer gets you beat. You go for 2 to make that 27, meaning even in a worst case scenario, you are still up 3 which gives you more breathing room on not getting beat in regulation.
Would I have personally done it? No I wouldn't. I certainly wouldn't have called that play either. But it's hilarious seeing LSU fans think it was running up the score intentionally. Some of the best gems from TR on the topic are that kriby was obsessed with getting 50 on the board, or kirby has a personal vendetta against brian kelly, or my absolute favorite....that it was so low class that LSU fans should now going forward in perpetuity have the green light to "do whatever they want" to uga fans
Which brings us to Saturday. In the 2nd half we couldn't stop LSU's passing game for shite, and they were mostly hitting big chunk pass plays and moving quickly. The game likely wasn't in doubt but they at least showed they could make it interesting. We score a TD to go up by 25 points with basically the entire 4th quarter still left to play. Obviously 24 points is what's considered "3 possessions" so anything above 24 is somewhat of a clean slate if you will. So if we kick the XP we go up by 26. In a worst case, disaster, meltdown scenario where LSU has erased the 3 possession deficit, being up by 1 or 2 is entirely meaningless since a FG at the buzzer gets you beat. You go for 2 to make that 27, meaning even in a worst case scenario, you are still up 3 which gives you more breathing room on not getting beat in regulation.
Would I have personally done it? No I wouldn't. I certainly wouldn't have called that play either. But it's hilarious seeing LSU fans think it was running up the score intentionally. Some of the best gems from TR on the topic are that kriby was obsessed with getting 50 on the board, or kirby has a personal vendetta against brian kelly, or my absolute favorite....that it was so low class that LSU fans should now going forward in perpetuity have the green light to "do whatever they want" to uga fans
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Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:16 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
, or kirby has a personal vendetta against brian kelly,
I don’t think it was in anyway THIS. I think Kirby was just tired of LSU pushing his shite in since he became the uga coach. I have no problem with him going for 2. If you don’t want them running the score up then stop them is my thinking. We certainly weren’t complaining when Burrow was dropping dimes when we were up 30 on teams.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:20 am to supersaints9
quote:
I don’t think it was in anyway THIS. I think Kirby was just tired of LSU pushing his shite in since he became the uga coach
I just don't see that. For starters we're fans on a message board so stuff like that goes thorugh our heads but he's a head coach, he's not concerend with stuff like that in the game while it's happening. I also think the LSu stuff is massively overblown, espeically on TR. 2019 probably doesn't even register for him jsut like it doens't for any other UGA fan because the teams were so utterly mismatched. We were decent but LSu was elite, one of hte best teams in conerence history. Us losing badly was expected and I doubt he cares about that. 2018 was a tough one to swallow for sure. But no one on that LSU staff is still there, none of those players are still here, our staff has changed a good bit, etc.
I just don't think that in that situation in the 4th qauter he decided to go for 2 to "stick it" to LSU beacuse of a game from 4 years ago.
quote:
I have no problem with him going for 2. If you don’t want them running the score up then stop them is my thinking. We certainly weren’t complaining when Burrow was dropping dimes when we were up 30 on teams.
good point.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:22 am to WG_Dawg
Was too much to read, decided to eat Egg ! Sausage & cheese burrito instead,
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:28 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
2019 probably doesn't even register for him jsut like it doens't for any other UGA fan because the teams were so utterly mismatched.
How do you see this years matchup? Weren’t these two teams utterly mismatched? It’s hard to tell from reading this board , because the responses and comments would suggest that LSU as a 17 point underdog was supposed to beat the best team in college football this year.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:33 am to WG_Dawg
Two things, LSU wasn't giving up, and we had no idea what Michigan was going to do later that night. 50 is a nice round number for the committee to keep in Atlanta for the semis.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:35 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Anytime lane kiffin goes for it on 4th on his own side of the field..."analytics!!!".
It doesn't seem to work as well for Lane (or anyone else) when they're playing a good defense.
quote:
it's hilarious seeing LSU fans think it was running up the score intentionally.
I wouldn't take that so personally.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:40 am to WG_Dawg
To me analytics are less useful in football with its condensed schedule. Analytics say over time this decision in this situation will be statistically the best. It can’t account for a lot of factors and, even if you are right in the course of your coaching career at a rate substantially similar to analytics, being wrong on a particular play can cost you an opportunity at a championship. Coaches should know and understand the analytics, and how they were developed, but shouldn’t be slaves to them.
Analytic slaves are really suited well to baseball due to the high number of games, innings, pitches, at bats, etc. in a season.
Analytic slaves are really suited well to baseball due to the high number of games, innings, pitches, at bats, etc. in a season.
This post was edited on 12/5/22 at 8:41 am
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:45 am to WG_Dawg
Kirby's decision to go for two and make it a 3 possession game... that's 3 TDs w/2PT conversation... had nothing to do with analytics. Sell that bullshite to an aggie fand tell them it's the key to winning a championship.... but don't piss on my shoe and try to convince me i stepped in water.
But, CBK answered that question tactfully... while I would have answered with "yeah Kirby's decision wasn't about analytics."
But, CBK answered that question tactfully... while I would have answered with "yeah Kirby's decision wasn't about analytics."
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:50 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
Kirby's decision to go for two and make it a 3 possession game... that's 3 TDs w/2PT conversation... had nothing to do with analytics
Lol
What a melt.
The analytics are published. It isn't a secret analytics just for the UGA program. Your coach has them as well.
Your coach just went for 2.
Our coach went for 2.
Those points meant something to both coaches.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:50 am to WDE24
quote:
To me analytics are less useful in football with its condensed schedule. Analytics say over time this decision in this situation will be statistically the best. It can’t account for a lot of factors and, even if you are right in the course of your coaching career at a rate substantially similar to analytics, being wrong on a particular play can cost you an opportunity at a championship. Coaches should know and understand the analytics, and how they were developed, but shouldn’t be slaves to them.
Analytic slaves are really suited well to baseball due to the high number of games, innings, pitches, at bats, etc. in a season.
Agree - analytics in football are good for giving a general idea of how to treat certain situations (4th and short from inside the 50, FG or go for it on 4th down late in a game down 10, etc)..........but only as reference points.
As you correctly noted - there aren't enough data points for YOUR TEAM to use it as a decision maker like in baseball. There are enough general data points from college football as a whole to give a basic idea of certain situational things, but you can't use it to just "make a decision" because those general college football data points include teams terrible in short yardage, teams great in short yardage, teams in the Pac 12, teams in the Sun Belt, etc. The variations in styles and pros/cons of different types of teams is way too big in football (compared, again, to baseball) to rely on that sort of stuff to be the main force driving a decision.
Even the 2 point conversion stuff is silly. Some teams have a system/personnel that is geared towards gaining 3 yards in a condensed space. Some absolutely do not. Now, there are going to be times where it doesn't matter - situational you have to try and get 2. But in a 50/50 situation? It absolutely matters what your team is or isn't.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:50 am to WG_Dawg
I don't know what the analytics say to do in that situation, but I didn't view it as running up the score. As you mentioned, the game wasn't in doubt, but it wasnt completely put away at that point either with the way LSU was moving the ball.
LSU get's a defensive or special teams score and Stetston goes down and all of a sudden its a two possession game in the 4th with 10 minutes left to play.
LSU get's a defensive or special teams score and Stetston goes down and all of a sudden its a two possession game in the 4th with 10 minutes left to play.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:52 am to meansonny
Not a melt... just pointing out the lack of class but your coach. Don't be mad, but if you are... ask me if i GAF 
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:53 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
SouthernInsanity
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:54 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
Kirby's decision to go for two and make it a 3 possession game... that's 3 TDs w/2PT conversation... had nothing to do with analytics
It was already a four possession game when he went for two, not a three possession game. Christ math is hard for people. But you are correct this has NOTHING to do with analytics. The only thing even remotely interesting or questionable about the 2 point attempt is that he called that trick play up 25. As I’ve said it seems he could have maybe kept that one in the playbook for a situation where he might actually need a 2 pointer. But he apparently thought that was the right time to call a trick play with a receiver throwing the ball. His choice.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:55 am to CornfieldChuck
quote:
It doesn't seem to work as well for Lane (or anyone else) when they're playing a good defense.
His penchant for going for it on 4th certainly made the 2021 Alabama/Ole Miss game a lot easier for Alabama.
It's possible it cost him the 2022 game. If he kicks the FG on the opening drive, then a FG on their last drive (that ended on Alabama's 20) would have sent the game to OT.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:57 am to WG_Dawg
“Analytics” is a word often used to tell the post game journos to frick off when they ask:
“Why’ju’do that?”
“Why’ju’do that?”
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:59 am to WG_Dawg
Also,
Personally, I would not have done it. But stop him f you hate being treated that way.
Also, Kirby might have been getting game time practice for 2 pc’s.
I’m okay with it. We should not have gotten beaten and let them cover like we did and we had to stop it.
Personally, I would not have done it. But stop him f you hate being treated that way.
Also, Kirby might have been getting game time practice for 2 pc’s.
I’m okay with it. We should not have gotten beaten and let them cover like we did and we had to stop it.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 8:59 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
Not a melt
It is either a melt because you understand that the chart says to go for it.
Or you are stupid as shite. The chart is published. Google isn't hard.
If you want me to believe that it isn't a melt, I'm fine with that.
Posted on 12/5/22 at 9:00 am to LSUgrad88
quote:
It was already a four possession game when he went for two, not a three possession game. Christ math is hard for people
right, and as the poster you responded to mentioned, wiht some luck and a bit of craziess 24 points could be erased over 3 possessions. We were up 25 at the time...what goes is being up 25 or 26 when 24 points could potentially be erased leaving you only up 1 or 2? Being up 3 in that case is clearly more desirable.
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