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re: Blue chip ratio correlation to winning it all?

Posted on 7/19/25 at 3:54 pm to
Posted by Buckeye06
Member since Dec 2007
24905 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 3:54 pm to
And Michigan cheated….
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
14687 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

our second half defense that year was legendary.


Wouldn't be the first talented team with unbalanced squads to win a title
Posted by LSU713Tiger
Houston, TX
Member since Nov 2012
159 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 5:44 pm to
As in all cases with football, a great QB is the ultimate equalizer.
Posted by JacieNY
Member since Jul 2024
1499 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 6:21 pm to
Oklahoma 70%

Really? If teams are rated according to their BCR then Oklahoma is looking at going 9-3.

Go Sooners!
Posted by lefty08
Not in Auburn or Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
6411 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 6:23 pm to
Love all the “winner will come from this list” posts. Well, yeah, and it has for 6 decades now……
Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1476 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 9:39 pm to
quote:

It is not a substitute for culture, coaching, player development, health or quarterback play. All of those things matter. But none of them matter more than talent acquisition when it comes to separating the very good from the elite.
This is a behind the scenes aspect of cfb that is intriguing me more now than ever. The list for this year has several teams with very high ratios. They all can't win the nc.

One difference will be injuries. No matter how good Van Buren is, perhaps the best backup in the country, there's no way he would step in for Nuss without missing a beat. There absolutely would be a step back.

But other than injuries, coaching is huge and that aspect of the game is so broad now. LSU has made news recently at how much they have revamped the program and basically look like an NFL team office. Sure, it sets up the program for future success but, will it translate into wins this season? TBD.

One of the byproducts of the NIL era is players not going 100%, every play, the entire season. And who can blame them? Don't take chances, stay healthy, keep getting paychecks. Make the NFL? Great. Not? That's ok. I already got a few Dodge Chargers out of the deal. Or I can transfer

So, I'm curious which coaches can build a culture that will motivate players to play for the name on the front of the jersey instead of the back of the jersey. You know all the coaches in the SEC are technically superior and have a wealth of advanced analytics, shadow staff, analysts at their disposal. I think the difference is going to be which coaches can build a team first culture.

The SEC network spent 100% of their time this past week talking about rosters but the top SEC rosters are so, so close, it's almost a wash. The difference is going to be the coaches and not just the playcalling. Culture is going to be perhaps more important than ever. In Indycar, the cars are intentionally, essentially equal because the series wants the driver to the be the difference, not the car like in F1

I know Kirby is going to be as good as anyone in this regard. Kiffin to me seems to be ill equipped for this. Maybe Elko can rise to the top in this category? Sark strikes me as better than average but I just wonder about his previous personal issues being indicative of him not being the best at this. BK has built a solid foundation from the smoldering ruins that O left behind. DeBoer? I have no idea. Too early to tell. Napier and Heupel? Meh.

Definitely having trouble figuring out Norvell. His time at FSU has been a case of extremes. They just lost a huge RB recruit and he seems to be on a downswing again. Dabo? Too rah rah, fake, blow with the wind, over the top garbage. I'm definitely not solid on media darling Freeman either. Hard to argue with Day right now.
Posted by ThePoo
Work
Member since Jan 2007
61097 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 12:42 am to


Clemson had Deshaun Watson, and Trevor Lawrence and FSU had jameis Winston
Posted by bamameister
Right here, right now
Member since May 2016
17117 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 7:04 am to
quote:

Clemson had Deshaun Watson, and Trevor Lawrence and FSU had jameis Winston


And LSU had Jayden Daniels. IF you dont have the bluechip players around them and know how to develop the guys you have, you might win a Heisman, but not a NC trophy. Lots of ways to win a natty with a talented roster. See 2003 and 2007 LSU.
Posted by theRealJesseD
Member since Nov 2021
4458 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 7:25 am to
quote:

They're considered "blue-chips" because they signed with the successful school that they play for.


So did the schools win championships? or did the players?
Posted by Gemini Jim
Member since Jul 2025
147 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 2:37 pm to
The portal is killing the excitement of "blue chip recruiting".

"We signed a 5 star...who will be gone in 2 years."

The "blue chip portal thefts" are quickly replacing recruiting.
Posted by ColoradoElkHerd
USA
Member since May 2014
4161 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 2:57 pm to
Op, great post. Thanks!
Posted by TrueLefty
St. Louis County
Member since Oct 2017
18229 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

I know Kirby is going to be as good as anyone in this regard. Kiffin to me seems to be ill equipped for this. Maybe Elko can rise to the top in this category? Sark strikes me as better than average but I just wonder about his previous personal issues being indicative of him not being the best at this. BK has built a solid foundation from the smoldering ruins that O left behind. DeBoer? I have no idea. Too early to tell. Napier and Heupel? Meh.

Definitely having trouble figuring out Norvell. His time at FSU has been a case of extremes. They just lost a huge RB recruit and he seems to be on a downswing again. Dabo? Too rah rah, fake, blow with the wind, over the top garbage. I'm definitely not solid on media darling Freeman either. Hard to argue with Day right now.


Do you think BK is the answer to help LSU to win a championship? I do not. You also said Freeman isn't good enough. I disagree with you about Freeman.
This post was edited on 7/20/25 at 3:56 pm
Posted by HotRock
Starkville,MS
Member since Aug 2018
531 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 5:59 pm to
They all had over 50% average of blue chips recruited out of HS/JuCo for four straight years the years they won it all.



Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1476 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

Do you think BK is the answer to help LSU to win a championship
I don't know. If he doesn't, the next coach will step into a really good situation.

quote:

You also said Freeman isn't good enough
Technically, I said I'm not sold on him. He inherited a really good foundation, sucked hard his first season, got an influx of cash that BK never got and then benefitted from a manageable schedule, fortunate injury situation and the national media propelled them into the playoffs. Can he keep that up? Who knows but I'm leaning more towards no. ND isn't going to be able to hide in this new atmosphere of cfb.
Posted by David Fellows
Chicago but Georgia on my mind
Member since Mar 2024
1578 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 3:07 pm to
I notice Tennessee is on this list yet not even in ESPN's top 25.

That's madness. But still,
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
28782 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

Blue chip ratio correlation

I tried this a couple of years ago and it didn't get any traction then either, but the data is correct.

LINK (look at the numbers in brackets)

quote:

no team outside of the Top 10 in talent has won [the CFP], only twice were they outside of the Top 5, and 5-of-8 have been in the Top 2
Posted by URGatorB8
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2018
86 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 3:54 pm to
2025: Florida (64%) = 2019: LSU (64%)
Posted by PeleofAnalytics
Member since Jun 2021
4805 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 4:25 pm to
Hypothetical here but is this saying you could have signed 80 blue chip guys out of 100 but 40 have left (without getting replaced by blue chip guys) and the team would still be considered at 80%?
Posted by geauxbrown
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2006
24763 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 4:28 pm to
Do they know 8&4 is on their list?
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