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Sorry TCU, Michigan, Cincy — data shows it takes takes talent to win a CFP Championship
Posted on 1/11/23 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 1/11/23 at 5:46 pm
With talk of moving to a 12-team playoff, I wanted to take a look at the "talent" rankings of the teams who have had success in the CFP. These are weighted metrics that describe the recruiting rankings of the entire class present in a program for a given season.
Based on this data, no team outside of the Top 10 in talent has won a championship, only twice were they outside of the Top 5, and 5-of-8 have been in the Top 2.
With the AQs filling slots in the coming 12-team playoff, what is the realistic probability that any of these "less talented" teams advance to the championship game and actually win it?
CFP Seed w/ [Team Talent Composite Rank]
2022
1 [2] Georgia
4 [3] Ohio State
>>>[2] Georgia beat [32] TCU
2 [13] Michigan
3 [32] TCU <- lol
2021
1 [1] Alabama
4 [54] Cincinnati <- lol
>>>[2] Georgia beat [1] Alabama
2 [15] Michigan
3 [2] Georgia
2020
1 [2] Alabama
4 [8] Notre Dame
>>>[2] Alabama beat [3] Ohio State
2 [4] Clemson
3 [3] Ohio State
2019
1 [5] LSU
4 [8] Oklahoma
>>>[5] LSU beat [9] Clemson
2 [2] Ohio State
3 [9] Clemson
...
for brevity, CFP Champion w/ [Team Talent Composite Rank]
2018 [6] Clemson
2017 [1] Alabama
2016 [9] Clemson
2015 [1] Alabama
2014 [no data] Ohio State
Based on this data, no team outside of the Top 10 in talent has won a championship, only twice were they outside of the Top 5, and 5-of-8 have been in the Top 2.
With the AQs filling slots in the coming 12-team playoff, what is the realistic probability that any of these "less talented" teams advance to the championship game and actually win it?
CFP Seed w/ [Team Talent Composite Rank]
2022
1 [2] Georgia
4 [3] Ohio State
>>>[2] Georgia beat [32] TCU
2 [13] Michigan
3 [32] TCU <- lol
2021
1 [1] Alabama
4 [54] Cincinnati <- lol
>>>[2] Georgia beat [1] Alabama
2 [15] Michigan
3 [2] Georgia
2020
1 [2] Alabama
4 [8] Notre Dame
>>>[2] Alabama beat [3] Ohio State
2 [4] Clemson
3 [3] Ohio State
2019
1 [5] LSU
4 [8] Oklahoma
>>>[5] LSU beat [9] Clemson
2 [2] Ohio State
3 [9] Clemson
...
for brevity, CFP Champion w/ [Team Talent Composite Rank]
2018 [6] Clemson
2017 [1] Alabama
2016 [9] Clemson
2015 [1] Alabama
2014 [no data] Ohio State
7
Posted on 1/11/23 at 5:50 pm to paperwasp
College football is such a shitty product, only around 10 teams out of 120ish have any chance of winning a title.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 5:58 pm to Mulkey Man
Only like 4 teams in the NFL have a chance to win every year. NBA is a little better, but only about 5-7
Posted on 1/11/23 at 6:03 pm to Mulkey Man
The portal has been a massive boon for the PAC-12.
The odds are certainly stacked against since it’s dry as a bone as far as defensive front talent out west. Nobody tackles here.
That said, you get a generational QB and you can fill holes with the portal, it can create some parity.
I definitely think we see more variety in the playoffs.
The odds are certainly stacked against since it’s dry as a bone as far as defensive front talent out west. Nobody tackles here.
That said, you get a generational QB and you can fill holes with the portal, it can create some parity.
I definitely think we see more variety in the playoffs.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 6:04 pm to paperwasp
Data also shows that a two loss team has never made the CFP.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 6:46 pm to paperwasp
quote:
"talent" rankings
This was your first mistake
quote:
54] Cincinnati <- lol
So a team that had more players drafted
(9) than any other school except UGA and LSU is somehow 54th in "talent rankings?"
How does that work?
Posted on 1/11/23 at 7:57 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
Only like 4 teams in the NFL have a chance to win every year
But it’s not the same 4 teams every year.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 8:06 pm to Sgt Tuffnuts
That would have changed if lsu would have won out this year
Posted on 1/11/23 at 8:24 pm to paperwasp
quote:
paperwasp
Your baws didn't make the playoffs.
They didn't.
Crying like a little girl won't change that.
Try to man up and accept the fact that your team DIDN'T make the playoffs.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 8:36 pm to paperwasp
The expanded playoff will only make this worse.
No teams with limited depth of top tier players have a chance in hell at making it through 3 additional games
No teams with limited depth of top tier players have a chance in hell at making it through 3 additional games
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:24 pm to paperwasp
quote:
data shows it takes takes talent to win a CFP Championship
Bama has all that talent and can’t even make the playoffs!
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:46 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
So a team that had more players drafted (9) than any other school except UGA and LSU is somehow 54th in "talent rankings?"
How does that work?
Their ranking uses a formula that considers and fits all 80-85 players on a curve, then assigns the team an overall weighted value.
You’re talking about 9 guys on Cincinnati’s team — this is factoring in the other 75 .
And BTW, that team that had “all those draft picks” was getting outgained 302-76 at the half.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:49 pm to FireDanMullen
quote:
No teams with limited depth of top tier players have a chance
Good point
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:01 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Their ranking uses a formula that considers and fits all 80-85 players on a curve, then assigns the team an overall weighted value.
Yes,we get all that and a "talent index" that doesn't take into account the talent and experience of the Jr and
Sr classes a patently absurd and gives you zero context.
Example: The 2016 UGA team was ranked 6th in "talent index" yet had zero Sr's
drafted and the one Jr drafted was a KR
in the 6th Rd.
You think that's a recipe for success or any way to judge what type of success a team will have?
If you really think Cincy was the "54th" most "talented" team last year there's not much I can do to convince you otherwise.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:04 pm to Mulkey Man
quote:
College football is such a shitty product, only around 10 teams out of 120ish have any chance of winning a title.
Is LSU one of those 10 teams year in and year out? I'm thinking no.
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:24 am to RD Dawg
quote:
You think that's a recipe for success or any way to judge what type of success a team will have?
Yes.
You don't think recruiting matters?
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:26 am to CornfieldChuck
quote:
Is LSU one of those 10 teams year in and year out? I'm thinking no.
Considering LSU has the second most titles since 2000, your statement looks foolish.
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:32 am to paperwasp
quote:
Yes
No seniors drafted and one Jr is a recipe for success? Interesting
quote:
You don't think recruiting matters?
When did I ever post this?
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:37 am to RD Dawg
quote:
When did I ever post this?
You seem to be arguing that talent rankings are not a valid method of predicting future success (or lack thereof) when it comes to winning titles.
Talent rankings are based on recruiting.
Am I misunderstanding?
Posted on 1/12/23 at 8:14 am to paperwasp
quote:
You seem to be arguing that talent rankings are not a valid method of predicting future success
What?You used the so called "talent rankings" to somehow discredit the current success of both Cincinnati and TCU.Now you're moving the goalpost to "future" success?
I gave you a clear example of how deceptive and without context they can be interpreted but somehow that didn't
register with you.
Do you think 24/7 and Rivals is a better judge of a team's talent than NFL GM's,scouts and player personnel staff?
quote:
Am I misunderstanding?
Obviously
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