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Baseball Tourney Outlook
Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:32 pm
Here are how teams rank applying a very simple formula (60% RPI, 20% ELO, 20% DSR)… this is in no way scientific but probably produces an order that’s fairly close to realistic.
1. UCLA- 1.00
2. Georgia Tech- 2.00
3. Auburn- 3.60
4. N. Carolina- 4.40
5. Texas- 4.60
6. Florida St- 8.00
7. Texas A&M- 9.00
8. Alabama- 9.20
9. Georgia- 10.20
10. Miss St- 10.60
11. USC- 12.80
12. Florida- 13.20
13. Ole Miss- 13.80
14. Oregon St- 14.20
14. Southern Miss- 14.20
16. West Virginia- 14.60
17. Wake Forest- 14.80
18. Nebraska- 19.00
19. Kansas- 19.20
20. Oregon- 19.80
21. Arkansas- 21.80
22. Oklahoma- 22.20
23. Oklahoma St- 24.40
24. Tennessee- 25.00
25. Cincinnati- 26.60
31. Kentucky- 30.80
Auburn and Texas appear to be in great shape for a National Seed. Auburn probably needs just one win this weekend and Texas needs 2 since they are playing Missouri… that should lock it up.
The Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss race for national seeds should be fascinating.
A&M, UGA, and Bama all likely just need to win their series this weekend and they’ll be in great position for a national seed unless they all three do so…
State needs a series win this weekend and probably need either Alabama or Georgia to lose a series this weekend… and that might still not be quite enough IMO. I think barring getting swept they should host though.
I think Florida and Ole Miss are longshots for a national seed but are also in a strong position to host. Need to avoid getting swept. Florida needs to win their series this weekend to not have to sweat it out on whether they host or not.
Arkansas and Oklahoma could sweep their series this weekend and still might miss the cut to host just by virtue of there being too many SEC teams in the picture. Will need some other SEC teams to have bad weekends.
Tennessee appears to be a 2-seed lock barring getting swept this weekend. Kentucky likely needs to win their series this weekend to have a shot at a 2-seed. They are close to being a 3-seed lock. Probably need to win 1 game this weekend to lock up a birth to the tourney.
LSU has to sweep Florida just to keep their hopes alive… still probably doubtful. If they could sweep Florida and watch Kentucky lose their series against Arkansas, the UK-LSU debate for the SEC’s last spot would get real interesting.
Just my 2 cents.
1. UCLA- 1.00
2. Georgia Tech- 2.00
3. Auburn- 3.60
4. N. Carolina- 4.40
5. Texas- 4.60
6. Florida St- 8.00
7. Texas A&M- 9.00
8. Alabama- 9.20
9. Georgia- 10.20
10. Miss St- 10.60
11. USC- 12.80
12. Florida- 13.20
13. Ole Miss- 13.80
14. Oregon St- 14.20
14. Southern Miss- 14.20
16. West Virginia- 14.60
17. Wake Forest- 14.80
18. Nebraska- 19.00
19. Kansas- 19.20
20. Oregon- 19.80
21. Arkansas- 21.80
22. Oklahoma- 22.20
23. Oklahoma St- 24.40
24. Tennessee- 25.00
25. Cincinnati- 26.60
31. Kentucky- 30.80
Auburn and Texas appear to be in great shape for a National Seed. Auburn probably needs just one win this weekend and Texas needs 2 since they are playing Missouri… that should lock it up.
The Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss race for national seeds should be fascinating.
A&M, UGA, and Bama all likely just need to win their series this weekend and they’ll be in great position for a national seed unless they all three do so…
State needs a series win this weekend and probably need either Alabama or Georgia to lose a series this weekend… and that might still not be quite enough IMO. I think barring getting swept they should host though.
I think Florida and Ole Miss are longshots for a national seed but are also in a strong position to host. Need to avoid getting swept. Florida needs to win their series this weekend to not have to sweat it out on whether they host or not.
Arkansas and Oklahoma could sweep their series this weekend and still might miss the cut to host just by virtue of there being too many SEC teams in the picture. Will need some other SEC teams to have bad weekends.
Tennessee appears to be a 2-seed lock barring getting swept this weekend. Kentucky likely needs to win their series this weekend to have a shot at a 2-seed. They are close to being a 3-seed lock. Probably need to win 1 game this weekend to lock up a birth to the tourney.
LSU has to sweep Florida just to keep their hopes alive… still probably doubtful. If they could sweep Florida and watch Kentucky lose their series against Arkansas, the UK-LSU debate for the SEC’s last spot would get real interesting.
Just my 2 cents.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 12:33 pm
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Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:40 pm to AUTiger789
RPI won’t be weighed 60% (they’re adding KPI and DSR specifically to deemphasize RPI) and ELO isn’t a factor for the committee.
And while I know this isn’t the reason you made the post, I just want to add that I understand the arguments against UGA based on RPI and SOS but the committee simply isn’t going to scoff at a team that won the SEC at 20+ games on those grounds. They’ve always invented their own justifications for how and why they do things and now they just hve more leeway to do so.
And while I know this isn’t the reason you made the post, I just want to add that I understand the arguments against UGA based on RPI and SOS but the committee simply isn’t going to scoff at a team that won the SEC at 20+ games on those grounds. They’ve always invented their own justifications for how and why they do things and now they just hve more leeway to do so.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:42 pm to AUTiger789
South Carolina got theirs...
Posted on 5/11/26 at 12:55 pm to tylerdurden24
Agreed. I think Arkansas is closer to a top 16 seed than this shows as well. They won 3/5 series against the SEC teams ranked ahead of them
Posted on 5/11/26 at 1:05 pm to tylerdurden24
quote:
the committee simply isn’t going to scoff at a team that won the SEC at 20+ games on those grounds.
I agree they have the best shot at a national seed out of the three main teams vying for the last couple national seeds… UGA, A&M, and Bama… simply because of conference record. However, there is no doubt Georgia benefited massively from an easy schedule and the committee will be well aware of that fact. A NC SOS of #238 won’t go unnoticed.
*IF* Bama were to win their home series against Ole Miss this weekend 2-1 and *IF* Georgia were to lose their road series at Auburn 1-2, then Alabama would close the season 12-6 and Georgia 11-7 against like-conference opponents. Throw in there that Bama would have a higher RPI, tougher NC SOS and 3 more Quad 1 wins, I think it’s highly conceivable that Bama would be seeded higher than Georgia.
I think Georgia is a lock for a National Seed barring getting swept this weekend and simultaneously A&M sweeping Miss State. But that doesn’t mean the committee will prop UGA up higher in the rankings just because they had the luxury of facing all four SEC teams that will miss the Tourney. A national seed of 7th or 8th is most likely, IMO.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 5/11/26 at 1:07 pm to lefty08
quote:
I think Arkansas is closer to a top 16 seed than this shows as well.
If Arkansas is a 2, it’s probably just because the committee will cap how many hosts they’ll allow the SEC to have. Whoever the host is that gets Arky in their regional would also get screwed IMO.
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:15 pm to AUTiger789
I've already decided they're going to match Ole Miss up with Auburn if we host in Oxford. Unless Texas wins the SEC Tourney and ends up a 3 seed or higher. Then they'll match the Oxford Regional up with the Austin Regional.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:34 pm to AUTiger789
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. FWIW (don’t think this really affects SEC teams but can certainly impact other schools that have notably cancelled midweek games over the past month to juice thei RPIs)
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:52 pm to tylerdurden24
To that end:
Wtf? Did BC just over-schedule with the intent of dropping a game of their choosing?
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Wtf? Did BC just over-schedule with the intent of dropping a game of their choosing?
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:58 pm to lefty08
quote:
Agreed. I think Arkansas is closer to a top 16 seed than this shows as well. They won 3/5 series against the SEC teams ranked ahead of them
And the committee knows Baum will have 10,000 butts in seats all weekend for a regional also..... don't act like that doesn't matter...
Posted on 5/11/26 at 3:12 pm to ElDawgHawg
A&M looks like a host but no longer a national seed. UGA, Auburn seems like locks
Posted on 5/11/26 at 3:15 pm to ElDawgHawg
I don’t think this has been addressed either but UGA and UF both got seeding boosts in 2024 because of Condon and Cags. I’d imagine UGA with Jackson, ASU with Hairston, A&M with Sorrell, etc will all get some consideration for the draw (didn’t mention Roch for UCLA and Lackey for Tech since they’re already virtual locks for the 1-2 seeds).
Posted on 5/11/26 at 3:42 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
A&M, UGA, and Bama all likely just need to win their series this weekend and they’ll be in great position for a national seed unless they all three do so…
While managing to get a national seed would be amazing considering how this year has ebbed and flowed, just hosting is more than I expected at the start of the season.
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