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re: Bama -23 1/2
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:30 am to Riseupfromtherubble
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:30 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
Lines like this look nice and tempting, and then bama goes out and shells them 45-10. I don't bet on bama games because you never know how saban is going to play it.
THIS
sucker bet
0
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:31 am to SaltyMcKracker
quote:
Lines are set so there is even money placed on both teams.
I'm well aware of this, that's why it's a take for me right now, delusional Bama bettors have made this very attractive
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:31 am to Aman
quote:
Aman
quote:
Have you seen MSU's schedule? They have played 4 cupcakes and probably the three worst teams in the SEC. I'm not saying Bama's schedule so far has been great, but Bama also hasn't played a close game.
In support of your theory, I think I heard today that MSU has scheduled Alcorn State for next year. Which will be the 4th time in 5 years they've played them. We're talking about a SWAC team.
I'm not sure LSU has ever scheduled a SWAC school-though perhaps one from the MEAC-but again I'm not sure.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:31 am to Francis Marion
PT Barnum comes to mind.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:32 am to GFunk
- 23 1/2?
Wow.
That's all?
Thought it would be higher than that!
Wow.
That's all?
Thought it would be higher than that!
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:33 am to Aman
State has played against better offenses than Bama has this year
Bama is 1-3 at home vs the Spread
State +24 is easy money
Bama is 1-3 at home vs the Spread
State +24 is easy money
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:33 am to Francis Marion
I dunno. Russell has been very impressive thus far, even after taking some hits. Still haven't seen State have to play come from behind yet, so I dunno.
Personally I wouldn't touch this with a 10' pole.
Personally I wouldn't touch this with a 10' pole.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:34 am to bbap
quote:
that's probably the best line in the history of gambling
That statement has built a lot of casinos in Vegas.
ETA: This line has stay away written all over it.
This post was edited on 10/23/12 at 9:35 am
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:34 am to Francis Marion
quote:I disagree. Notice how 95% of the people on here are proclaiming this is such easy money? Do the Vegas books look like they are hurting for money?
Really? I just don't see it, best line I've seen all year.
They know what they're doing.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:36 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:I was in Vegas about 4 weeks ago, and remember thinking what easy money LSU -18 at Auburn was
State has played against better offenses than Bama has this year
Bama is 1-3 at home vs the Spread
State +24 is easy money
And literally every person on the Rant thought it was easy money
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:36 am to GFunk
I don't bet anymore, but when I did (prior to Saban taking over), I always took Bama as an underdog and never took them as a favorite. Under Stallings, Fran, and Shula, this was a lucrative strategy. Under Dubose, any bet was just a pure shot in the dark.
But I think things have changed. This strategy worked because Alabama was a primarily defensive team being viewed as more dynamic than we really were. Defensive teams win closer and lose closer than usual. Now, though, I think Bama is seen as more conservative than we really are.
I tend to think this line is high, but I'd lay off.
But I think things have changed. This strategy worked because Alabama was a primarily defensive team being viewed as more dynamic than we really were. Defensive teams win closer and lose closer than usual. Now, though, I think Bama is seen as more conservative than we really are.
I tend to think this line is high, but I'd lay off.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:37 am to NaturalBeam
avoid a spread like this like the plague
look Alabama is going to win and it's going to be double digits but you don't touch that line
look Alabama is going to win and it's going to be double digits but you don't touch that line
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:41 am to NaturalBeam
quote:
I was in Vegas about 4 weeks ago, and remember thinking what easy money LSU -18 at Auburn was
And literally every person on the Rant thought it was easy money
but numbers hold up through time
LSU is 3-5 against the Spread this year
Bammer is 1-3 at home against the Spread
Vegas gives these two teams too much credit because people love to bet them, thus over-inflating lines
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:43 am to CoonassBulldog
Sure but last year we were like 12-2 ATS and the game was early in the year when we thought the offense might have changed.
You are correct about Bama receiving a couple of points b/c they're Bama. But I wouldn't touch this game myself.
Usually when the public falls in love with a line and starts taking out heloc's to run to the casino, it doesn't end well.
You are correct about Bama receiving a couple of points b/c they're Bama. But I wouldn't touch this game myself.
Usually when the public falls in love with a line and starts taking out heloc's to run to the casino, it doesn't end well.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:45 am to NaturalBeam
Right...I don't ever remember a case where the public took advantage successfully of a "stupid" Vegas line. lol
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:45 am to CoonassBulldog
I will reiterate, this is the best line I have seen all year, Bama can win by three scores and I still get paid.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:47 am to Francis Marion
quote:Then go get that easy money, brah!! What could go wrong?
I will reiterate, this is the best line I have seen all year, Bama can win by three scores and I still get paid.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:47 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
State has played against better offenses than Bama has this year
This is just wrong. Bama has played 5 teams that average over 400 yds of total offense a game. MSU has played 3. Bama has played no teams that average under 300 yds of total offense a game. MSU has played 2. The average total offense of Bama's 7 opponents is 396.37 yds a game. MSU's 7 opponents average 358.54 yds per game.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:49 am to Francis Marion
quote:
This is a 7-0 Mississippi State team, and Bama hasn't played anyone.
what's your point here? One team is substantially more talented than the other
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