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re: 2020 early preseason SP+ ranking according to this ESPN analyst
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:31 am to John Milner
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:31 am to John Milner
On what basis should Miami and Nebraska be ranked top 25?
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Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:56 am to John Milner
quote:
25. Nebraska 12.5 39.2 (10) 26.7 (55)
Frost really needs, if not a big year, than an above average year at Nebraska. He has underwhelmed in an underwhelming division and I am fairly sure that quite a few Nebraska fans recall Frost mocking Joe Burrow instead of signing him when Joe would have walked through hell covered in gasoline to play for the Cornhuskers.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#25 teams typically go 8-5, so this is basically saying they improve by 2-3 wins. Seems pretty reasonable.
It's far from reasonable. Nebraska hasn't won 6 games in 3 years. They have no business being in the top 25.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#19 Tennessee
LOL
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:05 am to BobLeeDagger
quote:
It's far from reasonable. Nebraska hasn't won 6 games in 3 years. They have no business being in the top 25.
(a) This isn't a voters Top 25, it's a model
(b) Results from 2017 and 2018 are pretty irrelevant, especially when 2017 was a totally different coaching staff and 2018 was a 1st year head coach
I'm not telling you Nebraska will go 8-5. I am telling you that it is reasonable to see a team that went 5-7 and lost 4 of those games by less than a touchdown, see that they return literally their entire offensive production in year 3 of a coach and think they might improve by 1-2 wins.
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 11:07 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:19 am to John Milner
quote:
19. Tennessee 14.7 29.5 (56) 14.8 (7)
Posted on 2/14/20 at 12:10 pm to John Milner
BREAKING: Bama grad comes up with convoluted formula to make Bama #1
Posted on 2/14/20 at 12:13 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Bama grad
Pretty sure Bill Connelly went to Missouri
Posted on 2/14/20 at 12:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Nebraska literally returns their entire offense - like 99% of their production at all positions from a 5-7 team that lost 4 games by 1 possession or less.
Yeah but some of those losses were to teams like Colorado (5-7) and Purdue (4-8). Who cares if 99% of the production comes back if that production is not any good?
The Huskers were blown out in most every game they played against a quality team:
Lost to Ohio State 48-7
Lost to Wisconsin 37-21
Lost to Minnesota 34-7
Nebraska was not a good team last year. Not even close. Aside from losing to Colorado and Purdue, they only beat Northwester (3-9) by a field goal. Their game against South Alabama was way closer than it should have been considering USA had one lone FBS win.
There is obviously too much weight in % of production coming back in this formula. If the starters were horrible, % of production is not relevant.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 12:21 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Nebraska was not a good team last year. Not even close. Aside from losing to Colorado and Purdue, they only beat Northwester (3-9) by a field goal. Their game against South Alabama was way closer than it should have been considering USA had one lone FBS win.
There is obviously too much weight in % of production coming back in this formula. If the starters were horrible, % of production is not relevant.
Teams that finish ranked #25 aren't good teams, either, generally.
Their schedule is
Purdue
Central Michigan
South Dakota St
Cincinnati
@ Northwestern
Illinois
@ Rutgers
@ Ohio State
Penn State
@ Iowa
@ Wisconsin
Minnesota
quote:
There is obviously too much weight in % of production coming back in this formula. If the starters were horrible, % of production is not relevant.
Their offense was 4th in the B10 in YPP in conference games and 7th in scoring. They return every single bit of it.
I don't think anybody is saying they are going to win the Big Ten, but going 7-5 or 8-4 isn't insane.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 12:42 pm to 00 Tech Grad
quote:
Not true, this is recency bias.
Meh. It's been true for the last decade or so. There have been a few exceptions, the most notable of which were the 2011 Auburn Tigers. They won the national championship in 2010 but were ranked #23 in the 2011 pre-season AP poll.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 2:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I am telling you that it is reasonable to see a team that went 5-7 and lost 4 of those games by less than a touchdown, see that they return literally their entire offensive production in year 3 of a coach and think they might improve by 1-2 wins.
quote:
I'm not telling you Nebraska will go 8-5.
It's reasonable, but you won't call it? No chest.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 2:10 pm to BobLeeDagger
quote:
It's reasonable, but you won't call it? No chest.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 4:52 pm to Mad Dawg 2020
quote:
I try not to put too much stock in these
Why wouldn't you put stock in rankings that had 2-loss Alabama at #2 and undefeated LSU at #3 after the SEC championpionship game and who's final rankings had Ohio State at #1 and LSU #2?
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 2/14/20 at 5:10 pm to John Milner
Wow, Bama plays 6 teams in the top 25. 2 of them in the first 3 games.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 8:24 pm to jatebe
quote:Eh, AU plays #1, #4, #6, #10, #17 and #28. No sympathy from us.
Wow, Bama plays 6 teams in the top 25. 2 of them in the first 3 games.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 10:25 pm to BobLeeDagger
quote:
From a 5-7 team...
Offense wasn’t their problem.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Pretty sure Bill Connelly went to Missouri
Takes less than a minute to look this up but people would still rather just throw shite at the wall and hope it sticks
Amazing to me
Posted on 2/14/20 at 11:25 pm to TarnishedWisdom90
quote:
I believe UGA Defense should be filthy this year... I just hope our offense can turn a corner
Arkansas fans says Chad Morris is legit!
Posted on 2/15/20 at 7:40 am to John Milner
Welp the SP+ and ESPN Power ratings had LSU fourth even after beating all the team ahead of them.
There is no way that the Alabama offense with MAC Jones is the number 1 offense and 30 vs LSU 23.
The supposed great/filthy Georgia defense that LSU torched 36 to 16 and then 37 to 10 in back to back years is not twice as good as the next defense.
Based on Play on the field Florida is better than Clemson. Cannot imagine that Penn State is the 5th best team. Penn State has not beaten a top ten team in several years.
Georgia and Bama play early. Clemson plays no one again. Georgia and Bama play three tough games. Bama does open with USC not Bama fault they are mediocre. LSU and Auburn play 5.
Whatever.. do not care about these ratings ESPN and SP+ were pretty far off last year.
There is no way that the Alabama offense with MAC Jones is the number 1 offense and 30 vs LSU 23.
The supposed great/filthy Georgia defense that LSU torched 36 to 16 and then 37 to 10 in back to back years is not twice as good as the next defense.
Based on Play on the field Florida is better than Clemson. Cannot imagine that Penn State is the 5th best team. Penn State has not beaten a top ten team in several years.
Georgia and Bama play early. Clemson plays no one again. Georgia and Bama play three tough games. Bama does open with USC not Bama fault they are mediocre. LSU and Auburn play 5.
Whatever.. do not care about these ratings ESPN and SP+ were pretty far off last year.
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