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16 teams still have at least some shot of making the Playoff
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:33 am
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:33 am
.. Some with better chances than others. I think the majority of these still control their own destiny but there are a few teams that have a prayer if absolute chaos broke their way.
The SEC and the BIG 10 are really the only two leagues who are guaranteed at least one spot in the playoff. The ACC, BIG 12, and the PAC 12 each have a shot but nothing is guaranteed at this point.
So who still has a shot?
TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY (9)
SEC: LSU, ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA
BIG 10: OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, MINNESOTA
BIG 12: BAYLOR
ACC: CLEMSON
If any of these teams win out and win their conference championship, they solidify a Playoff spot IMO.
TEAMS THAT STILL HAVE A SHOT IN ORDER OF LIKELIHOOD (7):
OKLAHOMA: If Oklahoma wins out and finishes 12-1 as the BIG 12 champ, they have a good shot of making the playoff. The only thing stopping them would be an undefeated Clemson and two teams from either the SEC or BIG 10 getting in over them. I think 12-1 Oklahoma goes ahead of 12-1 Oregon or Utah.
OREGON: Oregon must first win out and be a 12-1 PAC 12 Champion. They probably need Oklahoma to lose once more and a Clemson loss would certainly help their chances.
WAKE FOREST: They only have one loss and they control their own destiny in the ACC. Technically they could beat CLemson and win the ACC. I'm not sure their resume would be enough to go to the playoff even with a win over Clemson. They'd still have a shot though for sure.
WISCONSIN: Wisconsin still has a decent shot as a 2-loss team because they still have a decent shot of winning the BIG 10. However, with 2 losses its not guaranteed they'd get a spot even if they won the BIG 10. They first must win out which means they'll need to beat Minnesota and also beat either Ohio State or Penn State in the BIG 10 Championship Game. That's not entirely impossible. But they also could afford for Clemson to lose and they probably need Utah to win the PAC 12. I think the Penn State/Ohio State loser at 11-1 might also go ahead of Wisconsin despite the Badgers winning the Big 10, so the chances of Wisconsin going to the playoff are slim.
AUBURN: While its unlikely, if a 2-loss team were to ever make the playoff, it might be Auburn. Auburn was poised to become the first 2-loss team to make the playoff back in 2017, however that team won the SEC West. This time Auburn would have to make a case that a 2-loss non-division champ should have a spot. What would have to happen? First Auburn would have to win out, beating Georgia and Alabama. ESPN FPI gives them an 18.5% chance of doing that.... so unlikely, but not unreasonable either. They also need some help. They need LSU to be a clear #1 as 13-0 SEC Champs. A 3-point loss at the clear #1 team would hardly count as a loss. They also probably need Georgia to beat Florida this week and therefore win the East. If Florida were to win the East and finish 11-2 with both losses to LSU, Florida would still rank ahead of Auburn due to the head-to-head. But if it comes down to 10-2 Auburn or 10-2 Florida, the Auburn wins over Oregon, Alabama, and Georgia would probably be enough to trump Florida's close head-to-head win over the Tigers in Gainsville.
UTAH: If Utah goes 12-1 and wins the PAC 12, their chances of making the playoff are slim. A 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson would stil go ahead of them. A 1-loss Oklahoma or Baylor BIG 12 Champ would still go ahead of them. And its likely a 1-loss LSU or Alabama non-SEC Champ might go ahead. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 2-loss Georgia, Florida, or Auburn non-SEC Champ even go ahead of them. Utah's schedule is atrocious and they already have a loss to USC which is not exactly a quality loss. They have a shot but its very, very small.
CINCINNATI: A lot would have to happen, but I do believe Cincinnati has the best shot of a Group of 5 team to ever make the Playoff. Their only loss is to Ohio State in Columbus early in the season. They need Ohio State to be 13-0 and a clear #1 or #2 in the committee rankings. If they finish 12-1 with wins over UCF, Temple, Memphis, and then SMU in the Conference Championship Game, that gives them a decent resume. Honestly it might be better than an 12-1 Clemson. Obviously they'd still need a lot of help. They probably need Utah to win the PAC 12. They need everyone from the SEC except for its champ to have at least 2 losses. They probably need Baylor to win the BIG 12 and have at least one loss. And obviously they need Clemson to have a bad loss on their resume. The Bearcats are the only Group of 5 team with a shot this year, and that is only because they stepped up and played Ohio State and UCLA OOC.... and the fact the American is having a good season helps greatly.
The SEC and the BIG 10 are really the only two leagues who are guaranteed at least one spot in the playoff. The ACC, BIG 12, and the PAC 12 each have a shot but nothing is guaranteed at this point.
So who still has a shot?
TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY (9)
SEC: LSU, ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA
BIG 10: OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, MINNESOTA
BIG 12: BAYLOR
ACC: CLEMSON
If any of these teams win out and win their conference championship, they solidify a Playoff spot IMO.
TEAMS THAT STILL HAVE A SHOT IN ORDER OF LIKELIHOOD (7):
OKLAHOMA: If Oklahoma wins out and finishes 12-1 as the BIG 12 champ, they have a good shot of making the playoff. The only thing stopping them would be an undefeated Clemson and two teams from either the SEC or BIG 10 getting in over them. I think 12-1 Oklahoma goes ahead of 12-1 Oregon or Utah.
OREGON: Oregon must first win out and be a 12-1 PAC 12 Champion. They probably need Oklahoma to lose once more and a Clemson loss would certainly help their chances.
WAKE FOREST: They only have one loss and they control their own destiny in the ACC. Technically they could beat CLemson and win the ACC. I'm not sure their resume would be enough to go to the playoff even with a win over Clemson. They'd still have a shot though for sure.
WISCONSIN: Wisconsin still has a decent shot as a 2-loss team because they still have a decent shot of winning the BIG 10. However, with 2 losses its not guaranteed they'd get a spot even if they won the BIG 10. They first must win out which means they'll need to beat Minnesota and also beat either Ohio State or Penn State in the BIG 10 Championship Game. That's not entirely impossible. But they also could afford for Clemson to lose and they probably need Utah to win the PAC 12. I think the Penn State/Ohio State loser at 11-1 might also go ahead of Wisconsin despite the Badgers winning the Big 10, so the chances of Wisconsin going to the playoff are slim.
AUBURN: While its unlikely, if a 2-loss team were to ever make the playoff, it might be Auburn. Auburn was poised to become the first 2-loss team to make the playoff back in 2017, however that team won the SEC West. This time Auburn would have to make a case that a 2-loss non-division champ should have a spot. What would have to happen? First Auburn would have to win out, beating Georgia and Alabama. ESPN FPI gives them an 18.5% chance of doing that.... so unlikely, but not unreasonable either. They also need some help. They need LSU to be a clear #1 as 13-0 SEC Champs. A 3-point loss at the clear #1 team would hardly count as a loss. They also probably need Georgia to beat Florida this week and therefore win the East. If Florida were to win the East and finish 11-2 with both losses to LSU, Florida would still rank ahead of Auburn due to the head-to-head. But if it comes down to 10-2 Auburn or 10-2 Florida, the Auburn wins over Oregon, Alabama, and Georgia would probably be enough to trump Florida's close head-to-head win over the Tigers in Gainsville.
UTAH: If Utah goes 12-1 and wins the PAC 12, their chances of making the playoff are slim. A 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson would stil go ahead of them. A 1-loss Oklahoma or Baylor BIG 12 Champ would still go ahead of them. And its likely a 1-loss LSU or Alabama non-SEC Champ might go ahead. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 2-loss Georgia, Florida, or Auburn non-SEC Champ even go ahead of them. Utah's schedule is atrocious and they already have a loss to USC which is not exactly a quality loss. They have a shot but its very, very small.
CINCINNATI: A lot would have to happen, but I do believe Cincinnati has the best shot of a Group of 5 team to ever make the Playoff. Their only loss is to Ohio State in Columbus early in the season. They need Ohio State to be 13-0 and a clear #1 or #2 in the committee rankings. If they finish 12-1 with wins over UCF, Temple, Memphis, and then SMU in the Conference Championship Game, that gives them a decent resume. Honestly it might be better than an 12-1 Clemson. Obviously they'd still need a lot of help. They probably need Utah to win the PAC 12. They need everyone from the SEC except for its champ to have at least 2 losses. They probably need Baylor to win the BIG 12 and have at least one loss. And obviously they need Clemson to have a bad loss on their resume. The Bearcats are the only Group of 5 team with a shot this year, and that is only because they stepped up and played Ohio State and UCLA OOC.... and the fact the American is having a good season helps greatly.
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Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:39 am to BHMKyle
Nice work. Good post.
In reality, though, these are the only 9 teams with a realistic shot at winning it all:
LSU
Bama
Florida
Georgia
OhioSt
PennSt
Clemson
Oklahoma
Oregon
And IMO you can toss Florida and Oregon because neither will win it all regardless if they are technically still mathematically alive and/or control their destiny. So that cuts the list to 7... The national champion will be one of those 7 teams.
In reality, though, these are the only 9 teams with a realistic shot at winning it all:
LSU
Bama
Florida
Georgia
OhioSt
PennSt
Clemson
Oklahoma
Oregon
And IMO you can toss Florida and Oregon because neither will win it all regardless if they are technically still mathematically alive and/or control their destiny. So that cuts the list to 7... The national champion will be one of those 7 teams.
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 11:49 am
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:41 am to BHMKyle
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight site lists the chances of teams making the playoff like this:
86%- Clemson
64%- Ohio State
53%- Alabama
44%- LSU
30%- Oklahoma
24%- Penn State
23%- Oregon
16%- Georgia
15%- Baylor
14%- Utah
12%- Florida
6%- Minnesota
4%- Wisconsin
3%- Auburn
1%- Wake Forest
1%- Michigan
Those are the teams with 1% chance or greater. He includes Michigan and he does not include Cincinnati.... so we both came up with 16 teams.
The problem with Michigan is they would need Ohio State to lose TWICE and Penn State to lose THREE TIMES in addition to them winning out in order to win their Division. That's just slightly above impossible mathematically. I don't think Michigan can go any other way.
86%- Clemson
64%- Ohio State
53%- Alabama
44%- LSU
30%- Oklahoma
24%- Penn State
23%- Oregon
16%- Georgia
15%- Baylor
14%- Utah
12%- Florida
6%- Minnesota
4%- Wisconsin
3%- Auburn
1%- Wake Forest
1%- Michigan
Those are the teams with 1% chance or greater. He includes Michigan and he does not include Cincinnati.... so we both came up with 16 teams.
The problem with Michigan is they would need Ohio State to lose TWICE and Penn State to lose THREE TIMES in addition to them winning out in order to win their Division. That's just slightly above impossible mathematically. I don't think Michigan can go any other way.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:41 am to BHMKyle
I would love to see Wake Forest in the playoffs! Outside of Alabama that is who I would pull for.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:42 am to BHMKyle
I think CFB fans are tired of seeing Alabama and Clemson in the title game and that is why Clemson has fallen. A loss to LSU would likely drop Alabama out of the top 4, and a poor showing against Auburn (even with a win) would keep them out of the playoff. This season the playoff slate will be all conference champions.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 11:58 am to BHMKyle
Here is the % chance each team has of making the Playoff IF THEY WIN OUT according to Nate Silver:
>99% Clemson
>99% Ohio State
>99% Alabama
>99% LSU
>99% Penn State
>99% Georgia
>99% Minnesota
97% Baylor
94% Florida
89% Oklahoma
71% Oregon
70% Wake Forest
59% Utah
34% Wisconsin
21% Iowa
17% Kansas State
13% Auburn
8% Michigan
6% Texas
6% SMU
4% Iowa State
3% USC
2% Cincinnati
2% Memphis
>99% Clemson
>99% Ohio State
>99% Alabama
>99% LSU
>99% Penn State
>99% Georgia
>99% Minnesota
97% Baylor
94% Florida
89% Oklahoma
71% Oregon
70% Wake Forest
59% Utah
34% Wisconsin
21% Iowa
17% Kansas State
13% Auburn
8% Michigan
6% Texas
6% SMU
4% Iowa State
3% USC
2% Cincinnati
2% Memphis
Posted on 10/28/19 at 12:00 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
SEC: LSU, ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA
I'm not so sure about Georgia. That loss is gonna end up being really bad.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 3:00 pm to Korin
quote:
I'm not so sure about Georgia. That loss is gonna end up being really bad.
Nah. That win over Florida will balance it out.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 3:24 pm to Korin
quote:
I'm not so sure about Georgia. That loss is gonna end up being really bad.
If Georgia wins out and finishes at 12-1 and SEC champs they will be in. So would Florida. Not likely for either one really but they both still control their destiny
Posted on 10/28/19 at 3:27 pm to AlaCowboy
quote:
that is why Clemson has fallen.
Clemson has fallen because they play a conference slate composed of high school teams
Posted on 10/28/19 at 3:36 pm to BHMKyle
Lol so UGA is 99% if they win out but Fl is just 94% Why would that be?
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 10/28/19 at 4:05 pm to 954gator
quote:
Lol so UGA is 99% if they win out but Fl is just 94% Why would that be?
I wondered the same thing. Just reporting his numbers
Posted on 10/28/19 at 4:17 pm to BHMKyle
Usually he's better than this. He has LSU at 26% with a loss to Bama but that's not at all accurate. LSU has to be 80% to win out vs (Ole Miss, Arkansas, A&M). They would be the top 1 loss team in the country with wins over Texas, Auburn, Florida and a loss @ #2 Bama.
By far the best resume of any 1 loss team they'd go over a 1 loss Oklahoma or a 1 loss Pac 12 champ. So if Bama goes 13-0, Ohio State goes 13-0, Clemson goes 13-0 (which that is really unlikely), you'd still have to take LSU as the 4th best team.
LSU is 65% in the playoff already. If they win every other game but Bama they can lose to Bama OR they can lose the SEC champ game and still go. The only problem would be losing to Bama and then Bama losing the Conference Champ.
By far the best resume of any 1 loss team they'd go over a 1 loss Oklahoma or a 1 loss Pac 12 champ. So if Bama goes 13-0, Ohio State goes 13-0, Clemson goes 13-0 (which that is really unlikely), you'd still have to take LSU as the 4th best team.
LSU is 65% in the playoff already. If they win every other game but Bama they can lose to Bama OR they can lose the SEC champ game and still go. The only problem would be losing to Bama and then Bama losing the Conference Champ.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 4:20 pm to JPLSU1981
Why would Florida not? We have done nothing but look good since Trask. Two end zone mistakes cost us the game at LSU. Assuming that will auto happen next meeting, especially with our best offensive player back and two DE's back? Wouldn't be that sure.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 5:02 pm to BHMKyle
Why would 1-loss OU be ahead of 1-loss Oregon? Or Utah for that matter
Posted on 10/28/19 at 5:06 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
CINCINNATI: A lot would have to happen, but I do believe Cincinnati has the best shot of a Group of 5 team to ever make the Playoff.
I'm sorry, I know I'm an SMU fan and I'm biased, but how does Cincy have a chance and an undefeated SMU doesn't?
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 10/28/19 at 8:45 pm to FredBear
quote:
If Georgia wins out and finishes at 12-1 and SEC champs they will be in. So would Florida. Not likely for either one really but they both still control their destiny
Losing at home to a 5-7 team with a WR playing QB is way worse than what just happened to OU.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 11:43 am to Korin
quote:
Losing at home to a 5-7 team with a WR playing QB is way worse than what just happened to OU.
Oklahoma just lost on the road to a team outside of the top 20. They will have zero top 10 wins if they win out.
Georgia to finish 12-1 would have wins over #1(SEC West Champ), and top 15 wins over Florida, Notre Dame and Auburn. They would easily go over Oklahoma it's not even up for debate.
Posted on 10/30/19 at 11:53 am to JB Bama
quote:
LSU is 65% in the playoff already. If they win every other game but Bama they can lose to Bama OR they can lose the SEC champ game and still go. The only problem would be losing to Bama and then Bama losing the Conference Champ.
You are assuming Baylor isn't undefeated in this scenario. That is the reason for that lower %.
Top SEC team
Top B1G team
Clemson assuming they win out
Baylor undefeated
LSU has nowhere to go if they lose in that scenario
Posted on 10/30/19 at 12:14 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
>99% Minnesota
Odds are low, but that would be insane if they made it.
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